Interrupting Malaria Transmission: Quantifying the Impact of Interventions in Regions of Low to Moderate Transmission

Malaria has been eliminated from over 40 countries with an additional 39 currently planning for, or committed to, elimination. Information on the likely impact of available interventions, and the required time, is urgently needed to help plan resource allocation. Mathematical modelling has been used to investigate the impact of various interventions; the strength of the conclusions is boosted when several models with differing formulation produce similar data. Here we predict by using an individual-based stochastic simulation model of seasonal Plasmodium falciparum transmission that transmission can be interrupted and parasite reintroductions controlled in villages of 1,000 individuals where the entomological inoculation rate is <7 infectious bites per person per year using chemotherapy and bed net strategies. Above this transmission intensity bed nets and symptomatic treatment alone were not sufficient to interrupt transmission and control the importation of malaria for at least 150 days. Our model results suggest that 1) stochastic events impact the likelihood of successfully interrupting transmission with large variability in the times required, 2) the relative reduction in morbidity caused by the interventions were age-group specific, changing over time, and 3) the post-intervention changes in morbidity were larger than the corresponding impact on transmission. These results generally agree with the conclusions from previously published models. However the model also predicted changes in parasite population structure as a result of improved treatment of symptomatic individuals; the survival probability of introduced parasites reduced leading to an increase in the prevalence of sub-patent infections in semi-immune individuals. This novel finding requires further investigation in the field because, if confirmed, such a change would have a negative impact on attempts to eliminate the disease from areas of moderate transmission

Modelling the effects of standard prognostic factors in node-positive breast cancer

Prognostic models that predict the clinical course of a breast cancer patient are important in oncology. We propose an approach to constructing such models based on fractional polynomials in which useful transformations of the continuous factors are determined. The idea may be applied with all types of regression model, including Cox regression, the method of choice for survival-time data. We analyse a prospective study of node-positive breast cancer. Seven standard prognostic factors – age, menopausal status, tumour size, tumour grade, number of positive lymph nodes, progesterone and oestrogen receptor concentrations – were investigated in 686 patients, of whom 299 had an event for recurrence-free survival and 171 died. We determine a final model with transformations of prognostic factors and compare it with the more traditional approaches using categorized variables or assuming a straight line relationship. We conclude that analysis using fractional polynomials can extract important prognostic information which the traditional approaches may miss. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Outcome after extended follow-up in a prospective study of operable breast cancer: key factors and a prognostic index

In 1990, 215 patients with operable breast cancer were entered into a prospective study of the prognostic significance of five biochemical markers and 15 other factors (pathological/chronological/patient). After a median follow-up of 6.6 years, there were 77 recurrences and 77 deaths (59 breast cancer-related). By univariate analysis, patient outcome related significantly to 13 factors. By multivariate analysis, the most important of nine independent factors were: number of nodes involved, steroid receptors (for oestrogen or progestogen), age, clinical or pathological tumour size and grade. Receptors and grade exerted their influence only in the first 3 years. Progestogen receptors (immunohistochemical) and oestrogen receptors (biochemical) were of similar prognostic significance. The two receptors were correlated (r=+0.50, P=0.001) and displaced each other from the analytical model but some evidence for the additivity of their prognostic values was seen when their levels were discordant

p66 Shc and tyrosine-phosphorylated Shc in primary breast tumors identify patients likely to relapse despite tamoxifen therapy

INTRODUCTION: Shc adapter proteins are secondary messenger proteins involved in various cellular pathways, including those mediating receptor tyrosine kinase signaling and apoptosis in response to stress. We have previously reported that high levels of tyrosine-phosphorylated Shc (PY-Shc) and low levels of its inhibitory p66 Shc isoform are strongly prognostic for identifying both early node-negative and more advanced, node-positive, primary breast cancers with high risk for recurrence. Because aberrant activation of tyrosine kinases upstream of Shc signaling proteins has been implicated in resistance to tamoxifen – the most widely prescribed drug for treatment of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer – we hypothesized that Shc isoforms may identify patients at increased risk of relapsing despite tamoxifen treatment. METHODS: Immunohistochemical analyses of PY-Shc and p66 Shc were performed on archival primary breast cancer tumors from a population-based cohort (60 patients, 9 relapses) and, for validation, an independent external cohort (31 patients, 13 relapses) in which all patients received tamoxifen as a sole systemic adjuvant prior to relapse. RESULTS: By univariate and multivariate analyses, the Shc proteins were very strong and independent predictors of treatment failure in both the population-based cohort (interquartile hazard ratio = 8.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8 to 38, P = 0.007) and the validating cohort (interquartile relative risk = 12.1, 95% CI 1.7 to 86, P = 0.013). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that the levels of PY-Shc and p66 Shc proteins in primary tumors identify patients at high risk for relapsing despite treatment with tamoxifen and therefore with further validation may be useful in guiding clinicians to select alternative adjuvant treatment strategies

Basic fibroblast growth factor and vascular endothelial growth factor serum levels in breast cancer patients and healthy women: useful as diagnostic tools?

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to analyze the relationship between the expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF) in breast cancer cells and the corresponding serum levels in individual patients. The study also evaluated the potential of serum levels of the two growth factors as diagnostic markers in a case–control study. METHODS: VEGF expression and bFGF expression were determined in 62 and 63 tumor samples, respectively. Serum VEGF and bFGF levels were determined in 54 and 65 healthy women and in 69 and 73 breast cancer patients, respectively, using a quantitative sandwich enzyme immunoassay technique. RESULTS: A direct correlation was observed between VEGF expression and bFGF expression in individual tumors (P = 0.001) and between serum levels (P = 0.038) in individual patients, but not between tumor cell expression and the corresponding serum level for either growth factor. Median values of serum levels in healthy women and breast cancer patients were not different for VEGF (P = 0.055), but were significantly different for bFGF (P < 0.001). The receiver operating characteristic curve identified a serum bFGF concentration of 1.0 pg/ml, with 84.9% sensitivity and 63.1% specificity, as the best cut-off value to discriminate between healthy women and breast cancer patients. An age-based subgroup analysis showed that serum values of patients older than 70 years of age mainly contributed to the high accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: Our data repropose bFGF as a noninvasive diagnostic tool for breast cancer

Sun Protection Intervention for Highway Workers: Long-Term Efficacy of UV Photography and Skin Cancer Information on Men’s Protective Cognitions and Behavior

The risk for skin cancer is increased among older males and outdoor workers who have high levels of ultraviolet (UV) exposure. This study was designed to examine the long-term efficacy of UV photography interventions on male outdoor workers, the potential mediators of its impact, and the efficacy of UV photography and skin cancer vs. aging information with this population. One hundred forty-eight male outdoor workers were randomly assigned to one of four intervention conditions or a control condition in a two by two plus one factorial design. The men in the intervention conditions received or did not receive a UV photo of their face and watched either a photoaging or skin cancer educational video. Participants completed pre-intervention, immediate post-intervention, and 2-month and 1-year follow-up assessments. Analysis of covariance and structural equation modeling revealed that participants in the UV photography and cancer information interventions reported higher levels of sun protection cognitions, which were significant partial mediators of increases in sun protection behaviors and decreases in skin color. This study provides evidence for effective sun protection interventions on male outdoor workers that may help reduce skin cancer risk

Absence of progesterone receptor associated with secondary breast cancer in postmenopausal women

The relationship between expression of receptors for oestrogen and progesterone (ER and PR) and disease progression in breast cancer was investigated by comparing immunocytochemical determinations of ER and PR in fine needle aspirates from primary and secondary breast tumours. Rates of receptor expression were significantly higher in primary than in secondary lesions: for ER 63.3% (n = 689) compared with 45.3% (n = 223), and for PR 53.7% (n = 443) compared with 33.1% (n = 121). The effect of menopausal status was examined by subdividing the patient cohort into those over or under the age of 50 years. In both instances, ER expression in secondary tumours was relatively low; however, only postmenopausal patients had significantly lower rates of PR expression in secondary tumours. Consistent with this, an increase in the ER+PR– profile in secondary tumours compared with primary cases from postmenopausal patients was seen, and in a multivariate analysis, a specific absence of PR expression in secondary tumours was revealed. Comparison of ER and PR expression in simultaneously sampled primary tumours and lymph node metastases from the same patient showed that receptor expression was stable with progression to a metastatic site as results were concordant for ER in 92% (n = 88) and PR in 93.8% of cases (n = 65). These results suggest that absence of PR expression in primary breast cancer is associated with disease progression and may be a marker of an aggressive tumour phenotype. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig