The Forecasting Ability of a Cointegrated VAR Demand System with Endogeneous vs. Exogenous Expenditure Variable: An application to the UK imports of tourism from neighbouring countries

This paper uses Sims’s VAR methodology, as an alternative to Deaton and Muellbauer’s AIDS approach, to establish the long-run relationships between I(1) variables: tourism shares, tourism prices and UK tourism budget. The VAR deterministic components and sets of exogenous and endogenous variables are established, and the Johansen’s rank test is used to determine the cointegrated vectors in the system. The structural form of the cointegrated VAR is identified and the long-run parameters are estimated under several theoretical restrictions. The restricted cointegrated VAR reveals itself a theoretically consistent and statistically robust means to analyse the long-run demand behaviour of UK tourists and an accurate forecaster of the destinations’ shares.

Essence and Cause: Making Something Be What It Is

Aristotle frequently describes essence as a “cause” or “explanation”, thus ascribing to essence some sort of causal or explanatory role. This explanatory role is often explicated by scholars in terms of essence “making the thing be what it is” or “making it the very thing that it is”. I argue that this is problematic, at least on the assumption that “making” expresses an explanatory relation, since it violates certain formal features of explanation. I then consider whether Aristotle is vulnerable to this problem by examining the explanatory role of essence in Posterior Analytics and Metaphysics Z 17

Vacuum polarization by topological defects in de Sitter spacetime

In this paper we investigate the vacuum polarization effects associated with a massive quantum scalar field in de Sitter spacetime in the presence of gravitational topological defects. Specifically we calculate the vacuum expectation value of the field square, $$. Because this investigation has been developed in a pure de Sitter space, here we are mainly interested on the effects induced by the presence of the defects.Comment: Talk presented at the 1st. Mediterranean Conference on Classical and Quantum Gravity (MCCQG

Nonplanar integrability at two loops

In this article we compute the action of the two loop dilatation operator on restricted Schur polynomials that belong to the su(2) sector, in the displaced corners approximation. In this non-planar large N limit, operators that diagonalize the one loop dilatation operator are not corrected at two loops. The resulting spectrum of anomalous dimensions is related to a set of decoupled harmonic oscillators, indicating integrability in this sector of the theory at two loops. The anomalous dimensions are a non-trivial function of the 't Hooft coupling, with a spectrum that is continuous and starting at zero at large N, but discrete at finite N.Comment: version to appear in JHE

Diagnostic reasoning techniques for selective monitoring

An architecture for using diagnostic reasoning techniques in selective monitoring is presented. Given the sensor readings and a model of the physical system, a number of assertions are generated and expressed as Boolean equations. The resulting system of Boolean equations is solved symbolically. Using a priori probabilities of component failure and Bayes' rule, revised probabilities of failure can be computed. These will indicate what components have failed or are the most likely to have failed. This approach is suitable for systems that are well understood and for which the correctness of the assertions can be guaranteed. Also, the system must be such that changes are slow enough to allow the computation

Copper and Barium Abundances in the Ursa Major Moving Group

We present Cu and Ba abundances for 7 G-K dwarf stars, members of the solar-metallicity, 0.3 Gyr old Ursa Major Moving Group. All analyzed member stars show [Ba/Fe] excesses of +0.3-plus, associated with [Cu/Fe] deficiencies of up to -0.23 dex. The present results suggest that there is an anti-correlation between the abundances of Cu and the heavy elements produced by the main component of the neutron capture s-process. Other possible anomalies are Na and C deficiencies with respect to normal solar-metallicity stars. The new data do not confirm the recent claim that the group member HR6094 is a Ba dwarf star.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, accepted to MNRA

A double coset ansatz for integrability in AdS/CFT

We give a proof that the expected counting of strings attached to giant graviton branes in AdS_5 x S^5, as constrained by the Gauss Law, matches the dimension spanned by the expected dual operators in the gauge theory. The counting of string-brane configurations is formulated as a graph counting problem, which can be expressed as the number of points on a double coset involving permutation groups. Fourier transformation on the double coset suggests an ansatz for the diagonalization of the one-loop dilatation operator in this sector of strings attached to giant graviton branes. The ansatz agrees with and extends recent results which have found the dynamics of open string excitations of giants to be given by harmonic oscillators. We prove that it provides the conjectured diagonalization leading to harmonic oscillators.Comment: 33 pages, 3 figures; v2: references adde