Are World Leaders Loss Averse?

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Deep Recurrent Modelling of Stationary Bitcoin Price Formation Using the Order Flow

In this paper we propose a deep recurrent model based on the order flow for the stationary modelling of the high-frequency directional prices movements. The order flow is the microsecond stream of orders arriving at the exchange, driving the formation of prices seen on the price chart of a stock or currency. To test the stationarity of our proposed model we train our model on data before the 2017 Bitcoin bubble period and test our model during and after the bubble. We show that without any retraining, the proposed model is temporally stable even as Bitcoin trading shifts into an extremely volatile "bubble trouble" period. The significance of the result is shown by benchmarking against existing state-of-the-art models in the literature for modelling price formation using deep learning.Comment: 10 pages, The 19th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computin

Variables associated with odds of finishing and finish time in a 161-km ultramarathon

We sought to determine the degree to which age, sex, calendar year, previous event experience and ambient race day temperature were associated with finishing a 100-mile (161-km) trail running race and with finish time in that race. We computed separate generalized linear mixed-effects regression models for (1) odds of finishing and (2) finish times of finishers. Every starter from 1986 to 2007 was used in computing the models for odds of finishing (8,282 starts by 3,956 individuals) and every finisher in the same period was included in the models for finish time (5,276 finishes). Factors associated with improved odds of finishing included being a first-time starter and advancing calendar year. Factors associated with reduced odds of finishing included advancing age above 38 years and warmer weather. Beyond 38 years of age, women had worse odds of finishing than men. Warmer weather had a similar effect on finish rates for men and women. Finish times were slower with advancing age, slower for women than men, and less affected by warm weather for women than for men. Calendar year was not associated with finish time after adjustment for other variables

Bounded Temporal Fairness for FIFO Financial Markets

Financial exchange operators cater to the needs of their users while simultaneously ensuring compliance with the financial regulations. In this work, we focus on the operators' commitment for fair treatment of all competing participants. We first discuss unbounded temporal fairness and then investigate its implementation and infrastructure requirements for exchanges. We find that these requirements can be fully met only under ideal conditions and argue that unbounded fairness in FIFO markets is unrealistic. To further support this claim, we analyse several real-world incidents and show that subtle implementation inefficiencies and technical optimizations suffice to give unfair advantages to a minority of the participants. We finally introduce, {\epsilon}-fairness, a bounded definition of temporal fairness and discuss how it can be combined with non-continuous market designs to provide equal participant treatment with minimum divergence from the existing market operation

Two Planets, One Species: Does a Mission to Mars Alter the Balance in Favour of Human Enhancement?

In this chapter we examine the implications of a crewed mission to Mars, possible colonisation of the planet, and the wider implications this may have on genetic enhancement in both a terrestrial and space context. We consider the usage of both somatic and germ-line genetic engineering, and its potential impact on the evolution of Homo sapiens. We acknowledge that a mission to Mars may require the usage of such technologies if it is to be successful. Our investigation suggests that the use of such technologies might ultimately be linked with the transformation of our own species. We also consider projected timescales for the development of these genetic enhancements and the ethical questions raised by the possibility of speciation. Cooperation among spacefaring nations in this context and the development of norms for the use of such technologies is desirable

An unusual presentation of an unusual disease: infective endocarditis: a case report and review of the literature

It is normal to have patients to present with agitation to the emergency department. The history could be suggestive of the diagnosis in most. When an apparently healthy young man comes to the hospital agitated, without any history of fever or trauma, it is not an easy one to diagnose. This is a case report of a 35 year old gentleman who presented with such a history and the final diagnosis turned out to be a usual disease. Hence any patient presenting with neurological manifestations as agitation, one should consider cardiac causes such as Infective Endocarditis if no other obvious cause is found initially

An unusual presentation of an unusual disease: infective endocarditis: a case report and review of the literature

It is normal to have patients to present with agitation to the emergency department. The history could be suggestive of the diagnosis in most. When an apparently healthy young man comes to the hospital agitated, without any history of fever or trauma, it is not an easy one to diagnose. This is a case report of a 35 year old gentleman who presented with such a history and the final diagnosis turned out to be a usual disease. Hence any patient presenting with neurological manifestations as agitation, one should consider cardiac causes such as Infective Endocarditis if no other obvious cause is found initially

Astrobiological Complexity with Probabilistic Cellular Automata

Search for extraterrestrial life and intelligence constitutes one of the major endeavors in science, but has yet been quantitatively modeled only rarely and in a cursory and superficial fashion. We argue that probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) represent the best quantitative framework for modeling astrobiological history of the Milky Way and its Galactic Habitable Zone. The relevant astrobiological parameters are to be modeled as the elements of the input probability matrix for the PCA kernel. With the underlying simplicity of the cellular automata constructs, this approach enables a quick analysis of large and ambiguous input parameters' space. We perform a simple clustering analysis of typical astrobiological histories and discuss the relevant boundary conditions of practical importance for planning and guiding actual empirical astrobiological and SETI projects. In addition to showing how the present framework is adaptable to more complex situations and updated observational databases from current and near-future space missions, we demonstrate how numerical results could offer a cautious rationale for continuation of practical SETI searches.Comment: 37 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables; added journal reference belo

The emerging structure of the Extended Evolutionary Synthesis: where does Evo-Devo fit in?

The Extended Evolutionary Synthesis (EES) debate is gaining ground in contemporary evolutionary biology. In parallel, a number of philosophical standpoints have emerged in an attempt to clarify what exactly is represented by the EES. For Massimo Pigliucci, we are in the wake of the newest instantiation of a persisting Kuhnian paradigm; in contrast, Telmo Pievani has contended that the transition to an EES could be best represented as a progressive reformation of a prior Lakatosian scientific research program, with the extension of its Neo-Darwinian core and the addition of a brand-new protective belt of assumptions and auxiliary hypotheses. Here, we argue that those philosophical vantage points are not the only ways to interpret what current proposals to ‘extend’ the Modern Synthesis-derived ‘standard evolutionary theory’ (SET) entail in terms of theoretical change in evolutionary biology. We specifically propose the image of the emergent EES as a vast network of models and interweaved representations that, instantiated in diverse practices, are connected and related in multiple ways. Under that assumption, the EES could be articulated around a paraconsistent network of evolutionary theories (including some elements of the SET), as well as models, practices and representation systems of contemporary evolutionary biology, with edges and nodes that change their position and centrality as a consequence of the co-construction and stabilization of facts and historical discussions revolving around the epistemic goals of this area of the life sciences. We then critically examine the purported structure of the EES—published by Laland and collaborators in 2015—in light of our own network-based proposal. Finally, we consider which epistemic units of Evo-Devo are present or still missing from the EES, in preparation for further analyses of the topic of explanatory integration in this conceptual framework