Necessary conditions for linear noncooperative N-player delta differential games on time scales

We present necessary conditions for linear noncooperative N-player delta dynamic games on a generic time scale. Necessary conditions for an open-loop Nash-equilibrium and for a memoryless perfect state Nash-equilibrium are proved.Comment: Partially presented at the "Fifth Symposium on Nonlinear Analysis" (SNA 2007), Torun, Poland, September 10-14, 200

Macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidations in a DSGE model for the Euro Area: does composition matter?

We develop a new-Keynesian DSGE model with an extended fiscal policy block to assess the conditions for expansionary fiscal consolidations. In addition to several taxes, we consider public employment expenditures and government spending, which may have different degrees of productivity. We calibrate the model for the Euro Area and use it to simulate alternative fiscal consolidations with changes in the budget composition. Among the main conclusions we find that: (i) if conducted with a cut in weaklyproductive spending and a symmetric increase in highly-productive spending, fiscal consolidations have expansionary effects on investment and output; (ii) if consolidation is pursued through a pure reduction in weaklyproductive public employment, the effects on output decrease with the degree of labor market competition and turn out to be positive under perfect competition.fiscal policy, fiscal consolidation, new-Keynesian DSGE model

Level, Slope, Curvature of Sovereign Yield Curve and Fiscal Behaviour

We study fiscal behaviour and the sovereign yield curve in the U.S. and Germany in the period 1981:I-2009:IV. The latent factors, level, slope and curvature, obtained with the Kalman filter, are used in a VAR with macro and fiscal variables, controlling for financial stress conditions. In the U.S., fiscal shocks have generated (i) an immediate response of the short-end of the yield curve, associated with the monetary policy reaction, lasting between 6 and 8 quarters, and (ii) an immediate response of the longend of the yield curve, lasting 3 years, with an implied elasticity of about 80% for the government debt ratio shock and about 48% for the budget balance shock. In Germany, fiscal shocks entail no significant reactions of the latent factors and no response of the monetary policy interest rate. In particular, while (i) budget balance shocks created no response from the yield curve shape, (ii) surprise increases in the debt ratio caused some increase in the short-end and the long-end of the yield curve in the following 2nd and 3rd quarters.yield curve, fiscal policy, financial markets.

Macroeconomic Volatility Trade-off and Monetary Policy Regime in the Euro Area

This research uncovers a well-defined monetary policy regime starting in 1986 in the aggregate Euro Area. Both alternative solution-estimation methods employed - optimal control cum GMM, and dynamic programming cum FIML - identify a regime of strict inflation targeting with interest rate smoothing. The unemployment gap, properly estimated as quasi real-time information, is a relevant element in the information set of the monetary authority, despite not being included in its preferences. The emergence of the regime relates to the improvement of the volatility trade-off between inflation and unemployment gap since the mid-80s. Additional improving factors have been milder supply shocks and better ability of policymakers to set the interest rate closer to optimum.Monetary Policy Regime, Euro Area, Optimal Control, Dynamic Programming, GMM, FIML.

Growth Cycles in XXth Century European Industrial Productivity: Unbiased Variance Estimation in a Time-varying Parameter Model

This note applies the median unbiased estimation of coefficient variance, proposed by Stock and Watson (1998), to the extraction of the time-varying trend growth rate of industrial productivity in fifteen European countries, over most of the XXth Century, by means of an unobservable components univariate decomposition. In addition to the description of the procedure, this illustration is particularly useful in explaining why the method is especially appropriate for comparison of trends growth rates extracted from time series with diverse degrees of variability.unobservable components model; industrial productivity; growth cycles; Europe.

Testing for Asymmetries in the Preferences of the Euro-Area Monetary Policymaker

This paper tests for asymmetries in the preferences of the Euro-Area monetary policymaker with 1995:I-2004:III data from the last update of the ECB's Area-wide database. Following the relevant literature, we distinguish between three types of asymmetry: precautionary demand for expansions, precautionary demand for price stability and interest rate smoothing asymmetry. Based on the joint GMM estimation of the Euler equation of optimal policy and the AS-AD structure of the macroeconomy, we find evidence of precautionary demand for price stability in the preferences revealed by the monetary policymaker. This type of asymmetry is consistent with the ECB’s definition of price stability and with the priority of credibility-building by a recently created monetary authority.Central Bank Preferences, Asymmetry, Euro Area, Optimal Control, GMM.

Near-Infrared spectroscopy of the super star cluster in NGC1705

We study the near-infrared properties of the super star cluster NGC1750-1 in order to constrain its spatial extent, its stellar population and its age. We use adaptive optics assisted integral field spectroscopy with SINFONI on the VLT. We estimate the spatial extent of the cluster and extract its K-band spectrum from which we constrain the age of the dominant stellar population. Our observations have an angular resolution of about 0.11", providing an upper limit on the cluster radius of 2.85+/-0.50 pc depending on the assumed distance. The K-band spectrum is dominated by strong CO absorption bandheads typical of red supergiants. Its spectral type is equivalent to a K4-5I star. Using evolutionary tracks from the Geneva and Utrecht groups, we determine an age of 12+/-6 Myr. The large uncertainty is rooted in the large difference between the Geneva and Utrecht tracks in the red supergiants regime. The absence of ionized gas lines in the K-band spectrum is consistent with the absence of O and/or Wolf-Rayet stars in the cluster, as expected for the estimated age.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures. Research Note accepted in Astronomy and Astrophysic

(Un)anticipated monetary policy in a DSGE model with a shadow banking system : [Version 21 Juni 2012]

Motivated by the U.S. events of the 2000s, we address whether a too low for too long interest rate policy may generate a boom-bust cycle. We simulate anticipated and unanticipated monetary policies in state-of-the-art DSGE models and in a model with bond financing via a shadow banking system, in which the bond spread is calibrated for normal and optimistic times. Our results suggest that the U.S. boom-bust was caused by the combination of (i) too low for too long interest rates, (ii) excessive optimism and (iii) a failure of agents to anticipate the extent of the abnormally favorable conditions