Grain Sorghum International Trade: U.S.-Mexico Simulation and Estimation Model

An econometric international supply/demand/trade simulation and forecast sorghum model in a partial equilibrium framework is built in this research paper to quantify the effects of key exogenous variables on the U.S.-Mexico sorghum trade. A forecast baseline is also established by using the validated model and values of exogenous variables provided by FAPRI to project the level of endogenous variables over the period of 2009 to 2017. Impacts of plausible alternative scenarios for key exogenous variables are simulated from 2009 to 2017.Sorghum, International Trade, Simulation, Estimation, International Relations/Trade,

Estimation of a Censored Demand System in Stratified Sampling: An Analysis of Mexican Meat Demand at the Table Cut Level.

Evidence of meat trade in the form of table cuts suggests that consumer preferences and tastes vary across meat cuts. Unlike previous studies, this paper estimates demand elasticities at the table cut level from a Mexican survey of household incomes and expenditures, which is a stratified sample. The study uses the two-step estimation of a censored demand system proposed by Shonkwiler and Yen (1999) but incorporates stratification variables into the estimation procedure. Parameter estimates are reported and its standard errors are approximated by using the bootstrap procedure.censored demand system, two-step estimation procedure, stratified sampling, Mexican meat demand, elasticities, adult equivalent scales, bootstrap standard errors, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Q11,

Forecast and Simulation Analysis of Mexican Meat Consumption at the Table Cut Level: Impacts on U.S. Exports.

An analysis of current and forecasted Mexican meat consumption and imports is presented at the table cut level of disaggregation. Unlike previous studies, this study uses adult equivalence scales, a price imputation approach, a consistent censored demand system, and estimation techniques from stratified sampling. The results indicate that most Mexican consumption and imports of table cuts of meats grow at different rates. In addition, Mexico seems to be following the U.S. preferences for beef cuts, but it does not seem to be following the U.S. preferences for chicken cuts. The study may help U.S. and Canadian meat exporters in forecasting future exports to Mexico, conducting long-term meat investment decisions, or identifying trends in the consumption of specific table cuts of meats.forecast of Mexican meat consumption, forecast of Mexican imports, U.S. meat exports to Mexico, Mexican meat demand elasticities, meat analysis at the table cut level, censored demand system, two-step estimation procedure, stratified sampling, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade, Q11,

The Effect of Ethanol Production on Coarse Grains: New Price Relationships

For years, the U.S. price of grain sorghum has been settled as 95% of the price of corn. Nevertheless, the increasing demand for corn and grain sorghum in ethanol production might have changed that price relationship. In this study, we use cointegration and the vector autoregressive model with independent variable (VARX) to assess the relationship between the spot price of sorghum in several U.S. markets and corn’s futures market price during the period 1996–2008. The results indicate a price relationship between the price of sorghum in the Gulf ports, Kansas City, and Texas, and corn prices of 1.01, 0.99, and 0.99, respectively. These new relationships are noteworthy for producers and other stakeholders.causality test, cointegration, futures markets, VARX model, Agribusiness, Marketing,

International sorghum trade: United States beyond the Mexican dependency?

This research proposes the estimation of a partial equilibrium econometric and simulation international trade model for sorghum: United States and Mexico component. Sixteen equations were simultaneously estimated and validated as a system using seemingly unrelated regression. Results on parameter estimates agree with economic theory and a working model for simulation and forecast was obtained. Forecast scenarios suggest that the dependency of sorghum trade between US and Mexico will continue.Supply, Demand, NAFTA, International trade, Sorghum, International Relations/Trade,

THE UNCERTAIN FUTURE OF THE MEXICAN MARKET FOR U.S. COTTON: IMPACT OF THE ELIMINATION OF TEXTILE AND CLOTHING QUOTAS

Accounting for about 20% of U.S. total cotton exports in recent years, the Mexican market has become a key destination for U.S. cotton production. Simultaneously, the U.S. market is critical for the Mexican textile/clothing sector absorbing almost 50% of its total output. This strong North American integration process, in part a result of NAFTA, might be jeopardized by the approaching implementation of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC) in 2005. This paper presents the results of an econometric and simulation model that allows for the assessment of potential implications of the ATCÂ’s quota elimination on MexicoÂ’s cotton consumption and U.S. cotton exports to Mexico. It incorporates the growing interdependence between the U.S. and MexicoÂ’s cotton and textile industries and summarizes some plausible scenarios for the impact of the 2005 textile and clothing final quota elimination on U.S. markets.International Relations/Trade,

Coffee Differentiation: Demand Analysis at Retail Level in the US Market

Scanned data was used to estimate US coffee demand using an AIDS model. The estimated elasticities have the expected signs and magnitude. Differentiated coffees are complements for regular and unclassified while regular and unclassified coffees are substitutes. These results could be useful in designing marketing strategies by coffee suppliers.demand, coffee, differentiation, Demand and Price Analysis,