Real-time Prediction of Cascading Failures in Power Systems

Blackouts in power systems cause major financial and societal losses, which necessitate devising better prediction techniques that are specifically tailored to detecting and preventing them. Since blackouts begin as a cascading failure (CF), an early detection of these CFs gives the operators ample time to stop the cascade from propagating into a large-scale blackout. In this thesis, a real-time load-based prediction model for CFs using phasor measurement units (PMUs) is proposed. The proposed model provides load-based predictions; therefore, it has the advantages of being applicable as a controller input and providing the operators with better information about the affected regions. In addition, it can aid in visualizing the effects of the CF on the grid. To extend the functionality and robustness of the proposed model, prediction intervals are incorporated based on the convergence width criterion (CWC) to allow the model to account for the uncertainties of the network, which was not available in previous works. Although this model addresses many issues in previous works, it has limitations in both scalability and capturing of transient behaviours. Hence, a second model based on recurrent neural network (RNN) long short-term memory (LSTM) ensemble is proposed. The RNN-LSTM is added to better capture the dynamics of the power system while also giving faster responses. To accommodate for the scalability of the model, a novel selection criterion for inputs is introduced to minimize the inputs while maintaining a high information entropy. The criteria include distance between buses as per graph theory, centrality of the buses with respect to fault location, and the information entropy of the bus. These criteria are merged using higher statistical moments to reflect the importance of each bus and generate indices that describe the grid with a smaller set of inputs. The results indicate that this model has the potential to provide more meaningful and accurate results than what is available in the previous literature and can be used as part of the integrated remedial action scheme (RAS) system either as a warning tool or a controller input as the accuracy of detecting affected regions reached 99.9% with a maximum delay of 400 ms. Finally, a validation loop extension is introduced to allow the model to self-update in real-time using importance sampling and case-based reasoning to extend the practicality of the model by allowing it to learn from historical data as time progresses

Assessment of Thermal Comfort in Operating Rooms Using PMV-PPD Model

Operating rooms (ORs) are the most critical and expensive sector of healthcare facilities. The air conditioning system is designed to provide a well-controlled indoor air quality (IAQ). This design guarantees a perfect infection control and a good thermal comfort of patient and operating staff.This paper aims to analyze and evaluate indoor thermal comfort at different cases to assign the proper inlet air temperature to the OR. The predicted mean vote (PMV) and the predicted percentage dissatisfied (PPD) models in accordance with ISO 7730 were used for this study.Field measurements were first carried out in an OR at Kafr El-Sheikh educational hospital to get the thermal environment parameters. These parameters are required to determine the thermal comfort indices namely (PMV & PPD). Four different cases of supplied air temperature 17.5, 18.5, 19.5 and 20.5oC were studied and compared through 105 measuring points distributed in the operating room. The PMV and PPD indices were computed at each case for three groups of medical staff: surgeons (metabolic rate equal to 120 W/m2), nurses and surgeon\u27s assistants (100 W/m2), anesthetists (70 W/m2).The results revealed that inlet air temperature has a minor effect on the air velocities and airflow patterns inside the OR at the same air change rate. For the current ventilation system, it is difficult to create a very comfortable work conditions for all operating staff at the same time due to their different thermal requirements. It was concluded that a supplied air temperature of 18.5oC provides almost comfortable conditions for all surgical staff

Recent Outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever in East Africa and the Middle East

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an important neglected, emerging, mosquito-borne disease with severe negative impact on human and animal health. Mosquitoes in the Aedes genus have been considered as the reservoir, as well as vectors, since their transovarially infected eggs withstand desiccation and larvae hatch when in contact with water. However, different mosquito species serve as epizootic/epidemic vectors of RVF, creating a complex epidemiologic pattern in East Africa. The recent RVF outbreaks in Somalia (2006–2007), Kenya (2006–2007), Tanzania (2007), and Sudan (2007–2008) showed extension to districts, which were not involved before. These outbreaks also demonstrated the changing epidemiology of the disease from being originally associated with livestock, to a seemingly highly virulent form infecting humans and causing considerably high-fatality rates. The amount of rainfall is considered to be the main factor initiating RVF outbreaks. The interaction between rainfall and local environment, i.e., type of soil, livestock, and human determine the space-time clustering of RVF outbreaks. Contact with animals or their products was the most dominant risk factor to transfer the infection to humans. Uncontrolled movement of livestock during an outbreak is responsible for introducing RVF to new areas. For example, the virus that caused the Saudi Arabia outbreak in 2000 was found to be the same strain that caused the 1997–98 outbreaks in East Africa. A strategy that involves active surveillance with effective case management and diagnosis for humans and identifying target areas for animal vaccination, restriction on animal movements outside the affected areas, identifying breeding sites, and targeted intensive mosquito control programs has been shown to succeed in limiting the effect of RVF outbreak and curb the spread of the disease from the onset

Towards Conservation of Omani Local Chicken: Phenotypic Characteristics, Management Practices and Performance Traits

Characterizing local chicken types and their mostly rural production systems is prerequisite for designing and implementing development and conservation programs. This study evaluated the management practices of small-scale chicken keepers and the phenotypic and production traits of their chickens in Oman, where conservation programs for local livestock breeds have currently started. Free-range scavenging was the dominant production system, and logistic regression analysis showed that socio-economic factors such as training in poultry keeping, household income, income from farming and gender of chicken owners influenced feeding, housing, and health care practices (p<0.05). A large variation in plumage and shank colors, comb types and other phenotypic traits within and between Omani chicken populations were observed. Male and female body weight differed (p<0.05), being 1.3±0.65 kg and 1.1±0.86 kg respectively. Flock size averaged 22±7.7 birds per household with 4.8 hens per cock. Clutch size was 12.3±2.85 and annual production 64.5±2.85 eggs per hen. Egg hatchability averaged 88±6.0% and annual chicken mortality across all age and sex categories was 16±1.4%. The strong involvement of women in chicken keeping makes them key stakeholders in future development and conservation programs, but the latter should be preceded by a comprehensive study of the genetic diversity of the Omani chicken populations

Cordycepin for Health and Wellbeing: A Potent Bioactive Metabolite of an Entomopathogenic Medicinal Fungus Cordyceps with Its Nutraceutical and Therapeutic Potential

Cordyceps is a rare naturally occurring entomopathogenic fungus usually found at high altitudes on the Himalayan plateau and a well-known medicinal mushroom in traditional Chinese medicine. Cordyceps contains various bioactive components, out of which, cordycepin is considered most vital, due to its utmost therapeutic as well as nutraceutical potential. Moreover, the structure similarity of cordycepin with adenosine makes it an important bioactive component, with difference of only hydroxyl group, lacking in the 3′ position of its ribose moiety. Cordycepin is known for various nutraceutical and therapeutic potential, such as anti-diabetic, anti-hyperlipidemia, anti-fungal, anti-inflammatory, immunomodulatory, antioxidant, anti-aging, anticancer, antiviral, hepato-protective, hypo-sexuality, cardiovascular diseases, antimalarial, anti-osteoporotic, anti-arthritic, cosmeceutical etc. which makes it a most valuable medicinal mushroom for helping in maintaining good health. In this review, effort has been made to bring altogether the possible wide range of cordycepin’s nutraceutical potential along with its pharmacological actions and possible mechanism. Additionally, it also summarizes the details of cordycepin based nutraceuticals predominantly available in the market with expected global value. Moreover, this review will attract the attention of food scientists, nutritionists, pharmaceutical and food industries to improve the use of bioactive molecule cordycepin for nutraceutical purposes with commercialization to aid and promote healthy lifestyle, wellness and wellbeing

Extensive investigation of 0⁺ states in rare earth region nuclei

The nature of 0+ excitations, especially in transitional and deformed nuclei, has attracted new attention. Following a recent experiment studying 158Gd, we investigated a large group of nuclei in the rare-earth region with the (p,t) pickup reaction using the Q3D magnetic spectrograph at the University of Munich MP tandem accelerator laboratory. Outgoing tritons were recorded at various lab angles, and their angular distributions are compared to those calculated using the distorted-wave Born approximation. Using the unique shape of the L=0 angular distribution, more than double the number of 0+ states than were previously known are identified. The distribution of 0+ energies and cross sections is discussed in terms of collective and noncollective degrees of freedom, and the density of low-lying 0+ states is discussed as a corroboration of a characteristic feature of phase transition regions. The degree of level mixing, as extracted from Brody distribution fits to the energy spacings of adjacent 0+ levels, is also explored.</p

High-resolution study of 0+ and 2+ excitations in 168Er with the (p,t) reaction

Excited states in the deformed nucleus 168Er have been studied with high-energy resolution, in the (p, t ) reaction, with the Munich Q3D spectrograph. A number of 25 excited 0+ states (four tentative) and 63 2+ states have been assigned up to 4.0 MeV excitation energy. This unusually rich characterization of the 0+ and 2+ states in a deformed nucleus, close to a complete level scheme, offers a unique opportunity to check, in detail, models of nuclear structure that incorporate many excitation modes. A comparison of the experimental data is made with two such models: the quasiparticle-phonon model (QPM), and the projected shell model (PSM). The PSM wave functions appear to contain fewer correlations than those of the QPM and than required by the data