Calculating individual lifetime effective risk from initial mean glandular dose arising from the first screening mammogram

Objectives: To use the initial mean glandular dose (MGD) arising from the first screening mammogram to estimate the individual total screening lifetime effective risk. Methods: Organ doses from FFDM screening exposures (craniocaudal and mediolateral oblique for each breast) were measured using a simulated approach, with average breast thickness and adult ATOM phantoms, on 16 FFDM machines. Doses were measured using TLDs accommodated inside the ATOM phantom; examined breast MGD was calculated. Total effective risk during a client’s lifetime was calculated for 150 screening scenarios of different screening commencement ages and frequencies. For each scenario, a set of conversion factors were obtained to convert MGD values into total effective risk. Results: For the 16 FFDM machines, MGD contributes approximately 98% of total effective risk. This contribution is approximately constant for different screening regimes of different screening commencement ages. MGD contribution remains constant but the risk reduced because the radio-sensitivity of all body tissues, including breast tissue, reduces with age. Three sets of conversion factors were obtained for three screening frequencies (annual, biennial, triennial). Three relationship graphs between screening commencement age and total effective risk, as percentages of MGD, were created. Conclusions: Graphical representation of total risk could be an easy way to illustrate the total effective risk during a client’s lifetime. Screening frequency, commencement age, and MGD are good predictors for total effective risk generating more understandable data by clients than MGD