Plausible Petri nets as self-adaptive expert systems: A tool for infrastructure asset monitoring

This article provides a computational framework to model self-adaptive expert systems using the Petri net (PN) formalism. Self-adaptive expert systems are understood here as expert systems with the ability to autonomously learn from external inputs, like monitoring data. To this end, the Bayesian learning principles are investigated and also combined with the Plausible PNs (PPNs) methodology. PPNs are a variant within the PN paradigm, which are efficient to jointly consider the dynamics of discrete events, like maintenance actions, together with multiple sources of uncertain information about a state variable. The manuscript shows the mathematical conditions and computational procedure where the Bayesian updating becomes a particular case of a more general basic operation within the PPN execution semantics, which enables the uncertain knowledge being updated from monitoring data. The approach is general, but here it is demonstrated in a novel computational model acting as expert system for railway track inspection management taken as a case study using published data from a laboratory simulation of train loading on ballast. The results reveal selfadaptability and uncertainty management as key enabling aspects to optimize inspection actions in railway track, only being adaptively and autonomously triggered based on the actual learnt state of track and other contextual issues, like resource availability, as opposed to scheduled periodic maintenance activities.Lloyd'sRegister Foundation, Grant/Award Number: RB4539; Engineering and Physical SciencesResearch Council, Grant/Award Number:EP/M023028/

Voluntary stopping of eating and drinking in Switzerland from different points of view : protocol for a mixed-methods study

“To die with dignity” has reached the significance of a core value in democratic societies. Based on this unconditional value, people require autonomy and care. "Voluntary stopping of eating and drinking" (VSED) represents an alternative to assisted suicide because no one else is involved in the action of death fastening, even though from outside, it might be considered as an extreme form of passive euthanasia. However, there are no data available about the prevalence and frequency of either explicit VSED or the implicit reduction of food and liquid in Switzerland. The responsible and independent ethics committee of the Greater Region of Eastern Switzerland (EKOS 17/083) approved this study

Non-response in a survey of physicians on end-of-life care for the elderly

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Physicians are quite often surveyed with the aim to investigate their opinions regarding provision and improvement of health care. However, in many cases response rates tend to be rather low. The aim of the study is to reflect methodological aspects regarding survey conduction and to analyse factors that cause physicians to take part in a study on delivering end-of-life care for the elderly.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>N = 4,727 physicians in Lower Saxony, Germany, received a standardised questionnaire on their attitudes about end-of-life care for the elderly. Non-responders were asked to state the reasons for non-participation. Comparison of the sociodemographic characteristics between responders and non-responders, and evaluation of the reasons for non-participation were made.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The response rate to the questionnaire on end-of-life care for the elderly was 40% (n = 1,892). Of the non-responders to the questionnaire, 12.8% (n = 364) stated the reasons for non-participation. Overall, the response rate to the questionnaire varied with specialty and location of the practice: radiotherapists answered significantly more frequently than other categories of physician (e.g. general practitioners) and physicians in rural areas significantly more frequently than their colleagues in urban areas. The reasons most frequently given for non-participation were "Not concerned with the subject" and "No time".</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The varying rates of response indicate that the survey was not sufficiently relevant to all groups of physicians, or that the awareness of the topic may be partly underdeveloped.</p

Structural Reliability Updating with Stochastic Subspace Damage Detection Information

International audienc

Fatigue and Serviceability Limit State Model Basis for Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Converters.

This paper develops the models for the structural performance of the loading and probabilistic characterization for the fatigue and the serviceability limit states for the support structure of offshore wind energy converters. These models and a sensitivity study are part of a risk based assessment and monitoring framework and will be applied for establishing the "as designed and constructed" reliability as prior information for the assessment and the design of monitoring systems. The constitutive physical equations are introduced in combination with the fatigue and serviceability limit state requirements as the starting point for the development of the structural performance and loading models. With these models introduced in detail, several modeling aspects for both limit states are analyzed. This includes analyses of the influence on the hot spot stresses by applying a contact formulation for the pile guide brace connection and the application of a finite element formulation using solid elements. Further, the comparison of the natural frequencies of a discrete rotor model with a continuous rotor model is documented. To account for uncertainties associated with the structural and loading models, a probabilistic model is derived on the basis of literature review and measurement data from a prototype Multibrid M5000 support structure. The sensitivity study is based on the calculation of a nonlinear coefficient of correlation in conjunction with predetermined designs of experiments. This is conducted by a systematic analysis of the influence of the random variables on limit state responses and hence on the structural reliability. Integrating the analyses and sensitivity studies of the fatigue and serviceability limit state models developed in this paper as well as the ultimate limit state models in Thons et al. (Ultimate Limit State Model Basis for Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Converters," ASME J. Offshore Mech. Arct. Eng.), the model basis for the assessment is completed. The process of establishing and analyzing such a model basis contributes to a detailed understanding of the deterministic and probabilistic characteristics of the structure and provides valuable insights in regard to the significance of available data