Parameter Efficient Deep Probabilistic Forecasting

Probabilistic time series forecasting is crucial in many application domains, such as retail, ecommerce, finance, and biology. With the increasing availability of large volumes of data, a number of neural architectures have been proposed for this problem. In particular, Transformer-based methods achieve state-of-the-art performance on real-world benchmarks. However, these methods require a large number of parameters to be learned, which imposes high memory requirements on the computational resources for training such models. To address this problem, we introduce a novel bidirectional temporal convolutional network that requires an order of magnitude fewer parameters than a common Transformer-based approach. Our model combines two temporal convolutional networks: the first network encodes future covariates of the time series, whereas the second network encodes past observations and covariates. We jointly estimate the parameters of an output distribution via these two networks. Experiments on four real-world datasets show that our method performs on par with four state-of-the-art probabilistic forecasting methods, including a Transformer-based approach and WaveNet, on two point metrics (sMAPE and NRMSE) as well as on a set of range metrics (quantile loss percentiles) in the majority of cases. We also demonstrate that our method requires significantly fewer parameters than Transformer-based methods, which means that the model can be trained faster with significantly lower memory requirements, which as a consequence reduces the infrastructure cost for deploying these models

Body image, cosmesis, quality of life, and functional outcome of hand-assisted laparoscopic versus open restorative proctocolectomy: long-term results of a randomized trial

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to compare quality of life (QOL), functional outcome, body image, and cosmesis after hand-assisted laparoscopic (LRP) versus open restorative proctocolectomy (ORP). The potential long-term advantages of LRP over ORP remain to be determined. The most likely advantage of LRP is the superior cosmetic result. It is, however, unclear whether the size and location of incisions affect body image and QOL. METHODS: In a previously conducted randomized trial comparing LRP with ORP, 60 patients were prospectively evaluated. The primary end points were body image and cosmesis. The secondary end points were morbidity, QOL, and functional outcome. A body image questionnaire was used to evaluate body image and cosmesis. The Short Form-36 Health Survey and the Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Inventory were used to assess QOL. Body image and QOL also were assessed preoperatively. RESULTS: A total of 53 patients completed the QOL and functional outcome questionnaires. There were no differences in functional outcome, morbidity, or QOL between LRP and ORP. At a median of 2.7 years after surgery, 46 patients returned the questionnaires regarding body image, cosmesis, and morbidity. The body image and cosmesis scores of female patients were significantly higher in the LRP group than in the ORP group (body image, 17.4 vs 14.9; cosmesis, 19.1 vs 13.0, respectively). The female patients in the ORP group had significantly lower body image scores than the male patients (14.9 vs 18.3). CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to show that ORP has a negative impact on body image and cosmesis as compared with LRP. Functional outcome, QOL, and morbidity are similar for the two approaches. The advantages of a long-lasting improved body image and cosmesis for this relatively young patient population may compensate for the longer operating times and higher costs, particularly for wome

Organoid-based modeling of intestinal development, regeneration, and repair

The intestinal epithelium harbors a remarkable adaptability to undergo injury-induced repair. A key part of the regenerative response is the transient reprogramming of epithelial cells into a fetal-like state, which drives uniform proliferation, tissue remodeling, and subsequent restoration of the homeostatic state. In this review, we discuss how Wnt and YAP signaling pathways control the intestinal repair response and the transitioning of cell states, in comparison with the process of intestinal development. Furthermore, we highlight how organoid-based applications have contributed to the characterization of the mechanistic principles and key players that guide these developmental and regenerative events

Sphincter-sparing surgery after preoperative radiotherapy for low rectal cancers: feasibility, oncologic results and quality of life outcomes

The present study assesses the choice of surgical procedure, oncologic results and quality of life (QOL) outcomes in a retrospective cohort of 53 patients with low-lying rectal cancers (within 6 cm of the anal verge) treated surgically following preoperative radiotherapy (RT, median dose 45 Gy) with or without concomitant 5-fluorouracil. QOL was assessed in 23 patients by using two questionnaires developed by the QOL Study Group of the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer: EORTC QLQ-C30 and EORTC QLQ-CR38. After a median interval of 29 days from completion of RT, abdominoperineal resection (APR) was performed in 29 patients (55%), low anterior resection in 23 patients (20 with coloanal anastomosis) and transrectal excision in one patient. The 3-year actuarial overall survival and locoregional control rates were 71.4% and 77.5% respectively, with no differences observed between patients operated by APR or restorative procedures. For all scales of EORTC QLQ-C30 and EORTC QLQ-CR38, no significant differences in median scores were observed between the two surgical groups. Although patients having had APR tended to report a lower body image score (P = 0.12) and more sexual dysfunction in male patients, all APR patients tended to report better physical function, future perspective and global QOL. In conclusion, sphincter-sparing surgery after preoperative RT seems to be feasible, in routine practice, in a significant proportion of low rectal cancers without compromising the oncologic results. However, prospective studies are mandatory to confirm this finding and to clarify the putative QOL advantages of sphincter-conserving approaches. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaig

Small-cell lung cancer patients are just ‘a little bit’ tired: response shift and self-presentation in the measurement of fatigue

Background: Response shift has gained increasing attention in the measurement of health-related quality of life (QoL) as it may explain counter-intuitive findings as a result of adaptation to deteriorating health. Objective: To search for response shift type explanations to account for counter-intuitive findings in QoL measurement. Methods: Qualitative investigation of the response behaviour of small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients (n = 23) in the measurement of fatigue with The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Core Quality of Life Questionnaire (EORTC QLQ-C30) question 'were you tired'. Interviews were conducted at four points during 1st line chemotherapy: at the start of chemotherapy, 4 weeks later, at the end of chemotherapy, and 6 weeks later. Patients were asked to 'think aloud' when filling in the questionnaire. Results: Fifteen patients showed discrepancies between their answer to the EORTC question 'were you tired' and their level of fatigue spontaneously reported during the interview. These patients chose the response options 'not at all' or 'a little' and explained their answers in various ways. In patients with and without discrepancies, we found indications of recalibration response shift (e.g. using a different comparison standard over time) and of change in perspective (e.g. change towards a more optimistic perspective). Patients in the discrepancy group reported spontaneously how they dealt with diagnosis and treatment, i.e. by adopting protective and assertive behaviour and by fighting the stigma. They distanced themselves from the image of the stereotypical cancer patient and presented themselves as not suffering and accepting fatigue as consequence of treatment. Conclusion: In addition to response shift, this study suggests that 'self-presentation' might be an important mechanism affecting QoL measurement, particularly during phases when a new equilibrium needs to be found

Listen to their answers! Response behaviour in the measurement of physical and role functioning

Background: Quality of life (QoL) is considered to be an indispensable outcome measure of curative and palliative treatment. However, QoL research often yields findings that raise questions about what QoL measurement instruments actually assess and how the scores should be interpreted. Objective: To investigate how patients interpret and respond to questions on the EORTC-QLQ-C30 over time and to find explanations to account for counterintuitive findings in QoL measurement. Methods: Qualitative investigation was made of the response behaviour of small-cell lung cancer patients (n = 23) in the measurement of QoL with the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Core Quality of Life Questionnaire (EORTC QLQ-C30). Focus was on physical functioning (PF, items 1 to 5), role functioning (RF, items 6 and 7), global health and QoL rating (GH/QOL, items 29 and 30). Interviews were held at four points: at the start of the chemotherapy, 4 weeks later, at the end, and 6 weeks after the end of chemotherapy. Patients were asked to 'think aloud' when filling in the questionnaire. Results: Patients used various response strategies when answering questions about problems and limitations in functioning, which impacted the accuracy of the scale. Patients had scores suggesting they were less limited than they actually were by taking the wording of questions literally, by guessing their functioning in activities that they did not perform, and by ignoring or excluding certain activities that they could not perform. Conclusion: Terminally ill patients evaluate their functioning in terms of what they perceive to be normal under the circumstances. Their answers can be interpreted in terms of change in the appraisal process (Rapkin and Schwartz 2004; Health and Quality of Life Outcomes, 2, 14). More care should be taken in assessing the quality of a set of questions about physical and role functioning. © 2008 The Author(s)

Developing core outcomes sets: Methods for identifying and including patient-reported outcomes (PROs)

Background: Synthesis of patient-reported outcome (PRO) data is hindered by the range of available PRO measures (PROMs) composed of multiple scales and single items with differing terminology and content. The use of core outcome sets, an agreed minimum set of outcomes to be measured and reported in all trials of a specific condition, may improve this issue but methods to select core PRO domains from the many available PROMs are lacking. This study examines existing PROMs and describes methods to identify health domains to inform the development of a core outcome set, illustrated with an example.Methods: Systematic literature searches identified validated PROMs from studies evaluating radical treatment for oesophageal cancer. PROM scale/single item names were recorded verbatim and the frequency of similar names/scales documented. PROM contents (scale components/single items) were examined for conceptual meaning by an expert clinician and methodologist and categorised into health domains. A patient advocate independently checked this categorisation.Results: Searches identified 21 generic and disease-specific PROMs containing 116 scales and 32 single items with 94 different verbatim names. Identical names for scales were repeatedly used (for example, 'physical function' in six different measures) and others were similar (overlapping face validity) although component items were not always comparable. Based on methodological, clinical and patient expertise, 606 individual items were categorised into 32 health domains.Conclusion: This study outlines a methodology for identifying candidate PRO domains from existing PROMs to inform a core outcome set to use in clinical trials

Response shift due to diagnosis and primary treatment of localized prostate cancer: a then-test and a vignette study

Aim Whether a prostate cancer diagnosis induces response shift has not been established so far. Therefore, we assessed response shift in men who were diagnosed with localized prostate cancer. Patients and methods Out of 3,892 men who completed a questionnaire before screening, 82 were subsequently diagnosed with prostate cancer. Response shift was assessed in 52 (response 63%) by the then-test (EuroQol self-rating of health, Short-Form 36 mental health and vitality) and a novel method: rating of vignettes relating to side effects of prostate cancer treatment (urinary, bowel and erectile dysfunction). Three then-tests were conducted: two referencing pre-diagnosis (measured pre