Tendencias recientes e índices de cambio climático de la temperatura y la precipitación en Andorra, Pirineos (1935-2008)

This paper shows the results obtained for the calculation of annual and seasonal trends of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation from three climatic series of the Principality of Andorra (Pyrenees), and located between 1140 and the 1645 m. The estimated trends have been obtained for the period 1935-2008 corresponding to the whole length of the series, and for the sub-period 1950-2008. From the same series, at a daily resolution, the indices of change defined by the ETCCDMI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices) have been also calculated. The results represent a solid description of the Andorran climate dynamics over the past eight decades and provide insight into the variability and climate change experienced in the Pyrenean country, characterized by its high altitude. The results confirm the trends identified regionally by other agencies, both French and Spanish. This confirms the significant increase in air temperature for the annual mean maximum temperature (0.13 to 0.15 ºC/decade), for the summer maximum temperature (0.22 ºC/decade), and the summer minimum temperature (0.11 ºC/ decade). These trends are reinforced when the analysis focuses on the sub-period 1950-2008. For precipitation and for the period 1935-2008, only significant decreasing trends are obtained in the station Central and in summer (-5.4%/decade), while this behaviour is generalized and strengthened if we stick to the period 1950-2008. Finally, the results for the calculation of the ETCCDMI daily indices confirm and detail the results obtained at coarser resolution. Thus, the indices computed from the temperature series show an increase in extreme warm days and a decrease of their opposites. For precipitation rates, significant trends were not found for the period 1935-2008, while several indices did show statistically significant decreasing values for the sub-period 1950-2008.En este trabajo se muestran los resultados obtenidos del cálculo de las tendencias anuales y estacionales de la temperatura máxima, temperatura mínima y la precipitación en el Principado de Andorra (Pirineos) a partir del análisis de tres series climáticas situadas entre los 1140 y los 1645 m. Los cálculos de tendencia se han obtenido para el periodo 1935-2008 correspondiente a la longitud total de la series, así como para el sub-periodo 1950-2008. A partir de las mismas series a resolución diaria se han calculado los índices de cambio climático definidos por el ETCCDMI (Expert Teamfor Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices). Los resultados confirman las tendencias detectadas regionalmente por otros organismos, tanto franceses como españoles. Así, se confirma el incremento significativo de la temperatura del aire para la temperatura máxima media anual (0.13 a 0.15 ºC / década), para la máxima estival (0,22 ºC / década), y la mínima estival (0.11 ºC / década). Dichas tendencias al incremento térmico se refuerzan cuando el análisis se centra en el sub-periodo 1950-2008. En cuanto a la precipitación, se obtienen tendencias decrecientes y estadísticamente significativas para el periodo 1935-2008 en la estación de Central y en verano (-5.4 %/década), mientras que este comportamiento se generaliza y refuerza si nos ceñimos al periodo 1950-2008. Finalmente, los resultados del cálculo de los índices diarios del ETCCDMI confirman y detallan lo ya obtenido a más baja resolución. Así, los índices computados a partir de las series de temperatura indican un claro incremento de extremos asociados a días cálidos y un descenso de sus opuestos. En cuanto a los índices de precipitación, no se detecta ninguno con tendencia significativa para el periodo 1935-2008, mientras que varios de ellos sí que presentan valores decrecientes con significación estadística para el sub-periodo 1950-2008

Time trends, irregularity and multifractal structure on the monthly rainfall regime at Barcelona, NE Spain, years 1786–2019

A long and complete series of monthly rainfall amounts corresponding to Barcelona city (Catalonia, NE Spain), exceeding two centuries (years 1786–2019), is analysed in detail. The obtained results of periodicity (annual scale), time trends (monthly, seasonal and annual scales), statistical distribution (seasonal and annual scale) and fractal/multifractal structures and self-similarity at monthly scale depict the complex structure of this pluviometric regime, which is characterized by moderate increasing and decreasing trends on rain amounts, varying from +0.08¿mm·year-1 (February) to -0.07¿mm·year-1 (September) and quite evident changes on the pluviometric trends at annual and seasonal scales when the rainfall data are analysed for segments of 50¿years from 1800 up to 2019. A good example could be the relevant change on the annual scale time trend, from +0.77¿mm·year-1 (years 1800–1850) to -0.17¿mm·year-1 (years 1950–2019). Clear evidences of decreasing pluviometry for spring, summer and autumn for the last segment (1950–2019) in comparison with the other three segments, including years 1800–1950, are also detected. Additionally, increasing rainfall patterns complexity, expected difficulties on monthly rainfall forecasting and the increasing irregularity of monthly amounts is also detected by interpreting fractal and multifractal results. Irregularity increases on the monthly rainfall series and on the rainfall regime complexity derived from multifractal parameters, could be associated with the very notable increase of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, globally varying from 51.1¿×¿106 metric tonnes (year 1820) to 36.6¿×¿109 metric tonnes (year 2019) and the tropospheric concentration increasing from 280.8 ppm (year 1850) to 397.5 ppm (year 2014), being the probable relationship between tropospheric concentrations and changes on rainfall patterns the objective of future researches.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

The Individualised versus the Public Health Approach to Treating Ebola.

Tom Boyles reflects on differing approaches taken for treating patients with Ebola virus disease in low- and high-resource settings