Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes

The warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8 °C over the past century. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term.F.E. acknowledges financial support from the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (http://www.conacyt.gob.mx) under grant CONACYT-310026, as well as from PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. (CONACYT-310026 - Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia; PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

The nucleoside analog GS-441524 strongly inhibits feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) virus in tissue culture and experimental cat infection studies.

Feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) is a common and highly lethal coronavirus disease of domestic cats. Recent studies of diseases caused by several RNA viruses in people and other species indicate that antiviral therapy may be effective against FIP in cats. The small molecule nucleoside analog GS-441524 is a molecular precursor to a pharmacologically active nucleoside triphosphate molecule. These analogs act as an alternative substrate and RNA-chain terminator of viral RNA dependent RNA polymerase. We determined that GS-441524 was non-toxic in feline cells at concentrations as high as 100 uM and effectively inhibited FIPV replication in cultured CRFK cells and in naturally infected feline peritoneal macrophages at concentrations as low as 1 uM. We determined the pharmacokinetics of GS-441524 in cats in vivo and established a dosage that would sustain effective blood levels for 24 h. In an experimental FIPV infection of cats, GS-441524 treatment caused a rapid reversal of disease signs and return to normality with as little as two weeks of treatment in 10/10 cats and with no apparent toxicity

Changing perspectives on marijuana use during early adolescence and young adulthood: Evidence from a panel of cross-sectional surveys

Introduction. Prior research has often overlooked potential cohort differences in marijuana views and use across adolescence and young adulthood. To begin to address this gap, we conduct an exploratory examination of marijuana views and use among American youth using a panel of cross-sectional surveys. Method. Findings are based on repeated, cross-sectional data collected annually from adolescents (ages 12-17; n = 230,452) and young adults (ages 18-21; n = 120,588) surveyed as part of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health between 2002 and 2014. For each of the birth years between 1986 and 1996, we combined a series of nationally representative cross-sections to provide multi-year data strings designed to approximate nationally representative cohorts. Results. Compared to youth born in the mid-to-late 1980s, youth born in the mid-1990s reported significantly higher levels of marijuana disapproval during the early adolescent years (Age 14: 1988 = 64.7%, 1994 = 70.4%) but lower levels of disapproval during the young adult years (Age 19: 1988 = 32.0%, 1994 = 25.0%; Age 20: 1988 = 27.9%, 1994 = 19.7%). Moreover, the prevalence of marijuana use among youth born in 1994 was significantly lower—compared to youth born in 1988—at age 14 (1988: 11.39%, 1994: 8.19%) and significantly higher at age 18 (1988: 29.67%, 1994: 34.83%). This pattern held even when adjusting for potential confounding by demographic changes in the population across the study period. Conclusions. We see evidence of changes in the perceptions of marijuana use among youth born during the late twentieth century.2018-01-0

Past Market Variance and Asset Prices

Recent work in asset pricing has focused on market-wide variance as a systematic factor and on firm-specific variance as idiosyncratic risk. We study an alternative channel through which the variability of financial market returns may help our understanding of cross-sectional price formation in financial markets. Invoking the countercyclical nature of market variance, we allow the (stochastic) discounting of future cash-flows to depend on the level of past market variance (pmv). Employing pmv as a conditioning variable in a classical consumption-CAPM framework, we derive economically meaningful conditional factor loadings and conditional risk premia. We show that scaling by pmv may also yield more effective pricing results than scaling by successful, alternative variables (such as the consumption-to-wealth ratio) precisely at frequencies at which their predictive ability for excess market returns should be (in theory) and is (empirically) maximal, i.e., business-cycle frequencies.Asset prices, financial markets,

Governing therapy choices: Power/Knowledge in the treatment of progressive renal failure

This article outlines the struggle between the power of the health care professional and the rights of the individual to choose freely a modality of treatment. Nurses are instrumental in assisting patients in making the best decision for a therapy they will have to assume for the rest of their lives. In guiding patients' decision, nurses must take into account these unavoidable contingencies: changes in lifestyle, nutritional restrictions, level of acceptance, compliance issues, ease of training and availability of support/facilities. Ensuring that the patient makes an informed decision is therefore an ongoing challenge for nurses as they are taking part in a delicate balancing act between not directly influencing the patient's decision while making sure the patient is accurately informed