Measure Problem for Eternal and Non-Eternal Inflation

We study various probability measures for eternal inflation by applying their regularization prescriptions to models where inflation is not eternal. For simplicity we work with a toy model describing inflation that can interpolate between eternal and non-eternal inflation by continuous variation of a parameter. We investigate whether the predictions of four different measures (proper time, scale factor cutoff, stationary and causal {diamond}) change continuously with the change of this parameter. We will show that {only} for the stationary measure the predictions change continuously. For the proper-time and the scale factor cutoff, the predictions are strongly discontinuous. For the causal diamond measure, the predictions are continuous only if the stage of the slow-roll inflation is sufficiently long.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure

Boltzmann brains and the scale-factor cutoff measure of the multiverse

To make predictions for an eternally inflating "multiverse", one must adopt a procedure for regulating its divergent spacetime volume. Recently, a new test of such spacetime measures has emerged: normal observers - who evolve in pocket universes cooling from hot big bang conditions - must not be vastly outnumbered by "Boltzmann brains" - freak observers that pop in and out of existence as a result of rare quantum fluctuations. If the Boltzmann brains prevail, then a randomly chosen observer would be overwhelmingly likely to be surrounded by an empty world, where all but vacuum energy has redshifted away, rather than the rich structure that we observe. Using the scale-factor cutoff measure, we calculate the ratio of Boltzmann brains to normal observers. We find the ratio to be finite, and give an expression for it in terms of Boltzmann brain nucleation rates and vacuum decay rates. We discuss the conditions that these rates must obey for the ratio to be acceptable, and we discuss estimates of the rates under a variety of assumptions.Comment: 32 pp, 2 figs. Modified to conform to the version accepted by Phys. Rev. D. The last paragraph of Sec. V-A, about Boltzmann brains in Minkowski space, has been significantly enlarged. Two sentences were added to the introduction concerning the classical approximation and the hope of finding a motivating principle for the measure. Several references were adde

Agnesi Weighting for the Measure Problem of Cosmology

The measure problem of cosmology is how to assign normalized probabilities to observations in a universe so large that it may have many observations occurring at many different spacetime locations. I have previously shown how the Boltzmann brain problem (that observations arising from thermal or quantum fluctuations may dominate over ordinary observations if the universe expands sufficiently and/or lasts long enough) may be ameliorated by volume averaging, but that still leaves problems if the universe lasts too long. Here a solution is proposed for that residual problem by a simple weighting factor 1/(1+t^2) to make the time integral convergent. The resulting Agnesi measure appears to avoid problems other measures may have with vacua of zero or negative cosmological constant.Comment: 26 pages, LaTeX; discussion is added of how Agnesi weighting appears better than other recent measure

Psychological distress among Bam earthquake survivors in Iran: a population-based study

BACKGROUND: An earthquake measuring 6.3 on the Richter scale struck the city of Bam in Iran on the 26th of December 2003 at 5.26 A.M. It was devastating, and left over 40,000 dead and around 30,000 injured. The profound tragedy of thousands killed has caused emotional and psychological trauma for tens of thousands of people who have survived. A study was carried out to assess psychological distress among Bam earthquake survivors and factors associated with severe mental health in those who survived the tragedy. METHODS: This was a population-based study measuring psychological distress among the survivors of Bam earthquake in Iran. Using a multi-stage stratified sampling method a random sample of individuals aged 15 years and over living in Bam were interviewed. Psychological distress was measured using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). RESULTS: In all 916 survivors were interviewed. The mean age of the respondents was 32.9 years (SD = 12.4), mostly were males (53%), married (66%) and had secondary school education (50%). Forty-one percent reported they lost 3 to 5 members of their family in the earthquake. In addition the findings showed that 58% of the respondents suffered from severe mental health as measured by the GHQ-12 and this was three times higher than reported psychological distress among the general population. There were significant differences between sub-groups of the study sample with regard to their psychological distress. The results of the logistic regression analysis also indicated that female gender; lower education, unemployment, and loss of family members were associated with severe psychological distress among earthquake victims. CONCLUSION: The study findings indicated that the amount of psychological distress among earthquake survivors was high and there is an urgent need to deliver mental health care to disaster victims in local medical settings and to reduce negative health impacts of the earthquake adequate psychological counseling is needed for those who survived the tragedy

Cosmological Measures without Volume Weighting

Many cosmologists (myself included) have advocated volume weighting for the cosmological measure problem, weighting spatial hypersurfaces by their volume. However, this often leads to the Boltzmann brain problem, that almost all observations would be by momentary Boltzmann brains that arise very briefly as quantum fluctuations in the late universe when it has expanded to a huge size, so that our observations (too ordered for Boltzmann brains) would be highly atypical and unlikely. Here it is suggested that volume weighting may be a mistake. Volume averaging is advocated as an alternative. One consequence may be a loss of the argument that eternal inflation gives a nonzero probability that our universe now has infinite volume.Comment: 15 pages, LaTeX, added references for constant-H hypersurfaces and also an idea for minimal-flux hypersurface

The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS): translation and validation study of the Iranian version

BACKGROUND: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) is a widely used instrument to measure postnatal depression. This study aimed to translate and to test the reliability and validity of the EPDS in Iran. METHODS: The English language version of the EPDS was translated into Persian (Iranian language) and was used in this study. The questionnaire was administered to a consecutive sample of 100 women with normal (n = 50) and caesarean section (n = 50) deliveries at two points in time: 6 to 8 weeks and 12 to 14 weeks after delivery. Statistical analysis was performed to test the reliability and validity of the EPDS. RESULTS: Overall 22% of women at time 1 and 18% at time 2 reported experiencing postpartum depression. In general, the Iranian version of the EPDS was found to be acceptable to almost all women. Cronbach's alpha coefficient (to test reliability) was found to be 0.77 at time 1 and 0.86 at time 2. In addition, test-rest reliability was performed and the intraclass correlation coefficient was found to be 0.80. Validity as performed using known groups comparison showed satisfactory results. The questionnaire discriminated well between sub-groups of women differing in mode of delivery in the expected direction. The factor analysis indicated a three-factor structure that jointly accounted for 58% of the variance. CONCLUSION: This preliminary validation study of the Iranian version of the EPDS proved that it is an acceptable, reliable and valid measure of postnatal depression. It seems that the EPDS not only measures postpartum depression but also may be measuring something more

Prevalence of obsessive-compulsive disorder in Iran

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the annual prevalence for Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD) were consistent across the international sites range, 1.9% – 2.5%. The nine population surveys, which used Diagnostic Interview Schedule, estimated a six-month prevalence of OCD ranging from 0.7% to 2.1%. This study performed in order to determine the prevalence of OCD in a population-based study among Iranian adults aged 18 and older and to study the association of them with factors such as sex, marital status, education, type of occupation and residential area. METHODS: A cross-sectional nationwide epidemiological study of the Iranian population aged 18 and older was designed to estimate the prevalence of psychiatric disorders and their association with the above mentioned factors. 25180 individuals were selected and interviewed through a randomized systematic and cluster sampling method from all Iranian households. Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia (SADS) and Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-IV (DSM-IV) criteria were used in diagnosis of OCD. 250 clinical psychologists interviewed the selected subjects face to face at their homes. RESULTS: The prevalence of OCD in Iran is 1.8% (0.7% and 2.8% in males and females; respectively). 50.3% of the survey sample were men, 49.9% women, 29.1% single, 67.45% married, 0.4% separated or divorced, 2.5% widow/widower and 4% undetermined. All of the above-mentioned factors were examined in the univariate and multivariate logistic regression models. Although the data did not fit the models well, but in univariate models, sex, the category "single" of marital status, age, the categories "business" and "housewife" and residential areas showed significant effect adjusting for the factors, but the models didn't fit the data properly. CONCLUSION: The study suggests that the prevalence of OCD is not rare in the community of Iran and is within the range of other countries. Similar to prior studies in other communities, OCD is more common in females than males

Responsible Governance for Mental Health Research in Low Resource Countries

Blurb: Taghi Yasamy and colleagues identify challenges facing good research governance in low- and middle-income countries and provide suggestions for a way forward

Responsible Governance for Mental Health Research in Low Resource Countries

Blurb: Taghi Yasamy and colleagues identify challenges facing good research governance in low- and middle-income countries and provide suggestions for a way forward