Vection-induced gastric dysrhythmias and motion sickness

Gastric electrical and mechanical activity during vection-induced motion sickness was investigated. The contractile events of the antrum and gastric myoelectric activity in healthy subjects exposed to vection were measured simultaneously. Symptomatic and myoelectric responses of subjects with vagotomy and gastric resections during vection stimuli were determined. And laboratory based computer systems for analysis of the myoelectric signal were developed. Gastric myoelectric activity was recorded from cutaneous electrodes, i.e., electrogastrograms (EGGs), and antral contractions were measured with intraluminal pressure transducers. Vection was induced by a rotating drum. gastric electromechanical activity was recorded during three periods: 15 min baseline, 15 min drum rotation (vection), and 15 to 30 min recovery. Preliminary results showed that catecholamine responses in nauseated versus symptom-free subjects were divergent and pretreatment with metoclopramide HC1 (Reglan) prevented vection-induced nausea and reduced tachygastrias in two previously symptomatic subjects

Computational Analysis of the U.S FTAs with Central America, Australia, And Morocco

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the U.S. bilateral FTAs negotiated with Central America, Australia, and Morocco. The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on Version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates monopolistic competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including increasing returns and product variety. The modeling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non-trade aspects of the FTAs are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the benefits of bilateral FTAs for the United States and partner countries are rather small in both absolute and relative terms, and that far greater benefits could be realized if the United States and its FTA partners adopted unilateral free trade and especially if multilateral free trade was adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system.Free Trade Agreements, Unilateral Liberalization, Multilateral Liberalization

Computational Analysis of the Menu of U.S.-Japan Trade Policies

We have used the Michigan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of World Production and Trade to calculate the aggregate welfare and sectoral employment effects of the menu of U.S.-Japan trade policies. The menu of policies encompasses the various preferential U.S. and Japan bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) negotiated and in process, unilateral removal of existing trade barriers by the two countries, and global (multilateral) free trade. The U.S. preferential agreements include the FTAs approved by the U.S. Congress with Chile and Singapore in 2003, those signed with Central America, Australia, and Morocco and awaiting Congressional approval in 2004, and prospective FTAs with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), Thailand, and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). The Japanese preferential agreements include the bilateral FTA with Singapore signed in 2002 and prospective FTAs with Chile, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, and Thailand. The welfare impacts of the FTAs on the United States and Japan are shown to be rather small in absolute and relative terms. The sectoral employment effects are also generally small in the United States and Japan, but vary across the individual sectors depending on the patterns of the bilateral liberalization. The welfare effects on the FTA partner countries are mostly positive though generally small, but there are some indications of potentially disruptive employment shifts in some partner countries. There are indications of trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on nonmember countries for some of the FTAs analyzed. Data limitations precluded analysis of the welfare effects of the different FTA rules of origin and other discriminatory arrangements. In comparison to the welfare gains from the U.S. and Japan bilateral FTAs, the gains from both unilateral trade liberalization by the United States, Japan, and the FTA partners, and from global (multilateral) free trade are shown to be rather substantial and more uniformly positive for all countries in the global trading system. The U.S. and Japan FTAs are based on "hub" and "spoke" arrangements. We show that the spokes emanate out in different and often overlapping directions, suggesting that the complex of bilateral FTAs may create distortions of the global trading system.

Computational Analysis of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) that is currently being negotiated among the 34 countries in the region. The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on Version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates some aspects of trade with imperfect competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including monopolistic competition, increasing returns, and product variety. The modeling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non-trade aspects of the FTAA are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the FTAA would increase the economic welfare of the FTAA member countries by $118.8 billion, with the largest increases accruing to the United States,$67.6 billion, and to South America, $31.0 billion. The FTAA is trade diverting for most of the rest-of-world, with a welfare reduction of$9.3 billion. In comparison, if the FTAA countries were to adopt unilateral free trade, total FTAA member welfare would increase by $476.8 billion and global welfare by$812.7 billion. If multilateral free trade were adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system, the welfare effects would be considerably larger, $751.2 billion for the FTAA members and$2.7 trillion globally.Trade liberalization, Globalization

Computational Analysis of the U.S FTA with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU)

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the U.S. FTA being negotiated with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on Version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates monopolistic competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including increasing returns and product variety. The modeling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non-trade aspects of the U.S.-SACU FTA are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the benefits of the bilateral FTA for the United States and the SACU are rather small in both absolute and relative terms. Far greater benefits could be realized if the United States and the SACU adopted unilateral free trade and especially if multilateral free trade was adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system.

Developing Countries' Stake in the Doha Round

In this paper we discuss the various aspects of the Doha Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations in the WTO that offer potential benefits for developing countries. We then use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the major trading countries/regions of the reductions in tariffs, subsidies in agriculture, and barriers in services that may be negotiated in the Doha Round, as well as a variety of regional free trade agreements (FTAs). We estimate that an assumed reduction of post-Uruguay Round tariffs and other barriers on agricultural and industrial products and services by 33 percent in the Doha Round would increase world welfare by $686.4 billion, with significant gains for all industrialized and developing countries/regions. Regional agreements such as an APEC FTA, an ASEAN Plus 3 FTA, and a Western Hemisphere FTA would increase global and member country welfare, but by much less than the Doha multilateral trade round. There would also be trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on some nonmember countries for the FTAs analyzed. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalization are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.WTO, Trade Liberalization

Multilateral, Regional, and Bilateral Trade-Policy Options for the United States and Japan

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries/regions of a prospective new round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations and a variety of regional/bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) involving the United States and Japan. We estimate that an assumed reduction of post-Uruguay Round tariffs on agricultural and industrial products and services barriers by 33 percent in a new WTO trade round would increase world welfare by $613.0 billion, with gains of$177.3 billion for the United States, $123.7 billion for Japan, and significant gains for all other industrialized and developing countries/regions. If there were global free trade with all post-Uruguay Round trade barriers completely removed, world welfare would increase by$1.9 trillion, with gains of $537.2 billion (5.9 percent of GNP) for the United States and$374.8 billion (5.8 percent of GNP) for Japan. Regional agreements such as an APEC FTA, an ASEAN Plus 3 FTA, and a Western Hemisphere FTA would increase global and member country welfare but much less so than a new WTO multilateral trade round would. Separate bilateral FTAs involving Japan with Singapore, Mexico, Chile, and Korea and the United States with Chile, Singapore, and Korea would have positive, though generally small, welfare effects on the partner countries, but potentially disruptive sectoral employment shifts in some countries. There would be trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on some nonmember countries for both the regional and bilateral FTAs analyzed. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalization are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.

Computational Analysis of the Impact on India of the Uruguay Round and the Forthcoming WTO Trade Negotiations

The Indian economy has experienced a major transformation during the decade of the 1990s. Apart from the impact of various unilateral economic reforms undertaken since 1991, the economy also had to reorient itself to the changing multilateral trade discipline within the newly written GATT-WTO framework. The unilateral trade policy measures have encompassed exchange-rate policy, foreign investment, external borrowing, import licensing, custom tariffs, and export subsidies. The multilateral aspect of India's trade policy refers to India's WTO commitments regarding trade in goods and services, trade-related investment measures, and intellectual property rights. The present study analyzes the economic effects on India and other major trading countries/regions of the Uruguay Round (UR) trade liberalization and the liberalization that might be undertaken in a new WTO negotiating round. India's welfare gain is expected ot be 1.1% ($4.7 billion over its 2005 GDP) when the UR scenarios get fully implemented. The additional welfare gain is an estimated 2.7$11.4 billion) when the assumed future WTO round of multilateral trade liberalization is achieved. Resources would be allocated in India to the labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, clothing, leather and leather products, and food, beverages, and tobacco. These sectors would also experience growth in output and exports. Real returns to both labor and capital would increase in the economy. The scale effect (percent change in output per firm) is positive for all the ten sectors of manufacturing, indicating that Indian firms become more efficient than before. Finally, even if India undertakes unilateral trade liberalization of the order indicated in the WTO multilateral scenarios, it would still benefit, although less so than with multilateral liberalization.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39696/3/wp312.pd