Rising seas and retreating coastlines

Editoria

Estimating coastal recession due to sea level rise: beyond the Bruun rule

Accelerated sea level rise (SLR) in the twenty-first century will result in unprecedented coastal recession, threatening billions of dollars worth of coastal developments and infrastructure. Therefore, we cannot continue to depend on the highly uncertain coastal recession estimates obtained via the simple, deterministic method (Bruun rule) that has been widely used over the last 50 years. Furthermore, the emergence of risk management style coastal planning frameworks is now requiring probabilistic (rather than deterministic, single value) estimates of coastal recession. This paper describes the development and application of a process based model (PCR model) which provides probabilistic estimates of SLR driven coastal recession. The PCR model is proposed as a more appropriate and defensible method for determining coastal recession due to SLR for planning purposes in the twenty-first century and beyond

A behaviour oriented model for the evaluation of long-term lagoon-coastal dynamic interaction along the Po river delta

We are further developing behaviour-model describing the interaction between a tidal lagoon or basin and its adjacent coastal environment, including the ebb-tidal delta. While the model is based on general sediment transport equations, the behavioural aspect concerns the a priory assumption that the equilibrium state of each element of the system is known or at least can be defined. Here, we are able to rely on a vast body of reported experience for each of these system elements. The importance of the present work lies in the application of the model to the microtidal environment of the Po Delta, while the original model was validated for the mesotidal environment of the Wadden Sea