Ethical Considerations in Risk Communication Practice and Research†

Risk communication is a growth industry. The increasing size of Risk Analysis is just one reflection of a more general flood of publications, workshops, research projects, as well as serious efforts to communicate or to tell others how to communicate. The National Research Council has recently issued a summary report on the topic.(’) Amid all this activity, there is a simmering conflict regarding the ethical status of risk communication. Some people hold it to be an unabashedly good thing, an essential activity if lay people are to make informed decisions regarding risks. Others have a darker view. For example, Sheila Jasanoff suggests that “risk communication is often a code [word] for brainwashing by experts or industry”.(2) In this editorial, we offer a framework for analyzing the ethical status of that subset of communications composed of messages from technical experts to the lay public.</p

Can the U.S. Have Reliable Electricity?

Nuclear power plant operators have greatly increased reliability over the past two decades. What can the electric power industry as a whole learn from their experience

Water Impacts of CO₂ Emission Performance Standards for Fossil Fuel-fired Power Plants

We employ an integrated systems modeling tool to assess the water impacts of the new source performance standards recently proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for limiting CO₂ emissions from coal- and gas-fired power plants. The implementation of amine-based carbon capture and storage (CCS) for 40% CO₂ capture to meet the current proposal will increase plant water use by roughly 30% in supercritical pulverized coal-fired power plants. The specific amount of added water use varies with power plant and CCS designs. More stringent emission standards than the current proposal would require CO₂ emission reductions for natural gas combined-cycle (NGCC) plants via CCS, which would also increase plant water use. When examined over a range of possible future emission standards from 1100 to 300 lb CO₂/MWh gross, new baseload NGCC plants consume roughly 60–70% less water than coal-fired plants. A series of adaptation approaches to secure low-carbon energy production and improve the electric power industry’s water management in the face of future policy constraints are discussed both quantitatively and qualitatively

Power Play: A More Reliable U.S. Electric System

U.S. utilities have a lot to learn about avoiding power outages. They can benefit from the experience of foreign utilities, other U.S. industries, and even their own nuclear power plants.</p

The U.S. Electric Power Sector and Climate Change Mitigation

Measured by environmental impact and economic importance, the electricity industry is one of the most important sectors of the American economy. The generation of electricity is responsible for 38 percent of all U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and one third of all U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This sector is the largest single source of these emissions. It is also the largest source of sulfur dioxide (SO2), oxides of nitrogen (NOX), small particles, and other air pollutants. At the same time, electricity is critical to the U.S. economy. Recent annual national expenditures on electricity totaled $250 billion—making the electricity sector’s share of overall GDP larger than that of the automobile manufacturing industry and roughly equal in magnitude to that of the telecommunications industry. Expenditures alone, however, understate the importance of electricity to the U.S. economy. Nearly every aspect of productive activity and daily life in a modern economy depends on electricity for which there is, in many cases, no close substitute. As the most desirable form of energy for many uses, electricity use has grown faster than GDP. The Internet and computers would not operate without very reliable, high-quality electricity. Electricity also plays a major role in delivering modern comforts and easing household tasks, from running heating and cooling systems to washing clothes and dishes. It plays an even more important role in the commercial, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors, where it provides lighting and powers a variety of machines. In short, it is hard to imagine a modern economy functioning without large amounts of reliable, high-quality electricity.</p

Regulatory and Policy Needs for Geological Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide

What does it take to establish geological sequestration (GS) of CO2 as an acceptable method of greenhouse gas emissions reduction

Reducing U.S. Residential Energy Use and CO₂ Emissions: How Much, How Soon, and at What Cost?

There is growing interest in reducing energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide from the residential sector by deploying cost-effectiveness energy efficiency measures. However, there is still large uncertainty about the magnitude of the reductions that could be achieved by pursuing different energy efficiency measures across the nation. Using detailed estimates of the current inventory and performance of major appliances in U.S. homes, we model the cost, energy, and CO₂ emissions reduction if they were replaced with alternatives that consume less energy or emit less CO₂. We explore trade-offs between reducing CO₂, reducing primary or final energy, or electricity consumption. We explore switching between electricity and direct fuel use, and among fuels. The trade-offs between different energy efficiency policy goals, as well as the environmental metrics used, are important but have been largely unexplored by previous energy modelers and policy-makers. We find that overnight replacement of the full stock of major residential appliances sets an upper bound of just over 710 × 10⁶ tonnes/year of CO₂ or a 56% reduction from baseline residential emissions. However, a policy designed instead to minimize primary energy consumption instead of CO₂ emissions will achieve a 48% reduction in annual carbon dioxide emissions from the nine largest energy consuming residential end-uses. Thus, we explore the uncertainty regarding the main assumptions and different policy goals in a detailed sensitivity analysis

Hurricane Modification and Adaptation in Miami-Dade County, Florida

We investigate tropical cyclone wind and storm surge damage reduction for five areas along the Miami-Dade County coastline either by hardening buildings or by the hypothetical application of wind-wave pumps to modify storms. We calculate surge height and wind speed as functions of return period and sea surface temperature reduction by wind-wave pumps. We then estimate costs and economic losses with the FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3 damage model and census data on property at risk. All areas experience more surge damages for short return periods, and more wind damages for long periods. The return period at which the dominating hazard component switches depends on location. We also calculate the seasonal expected fraction of control damage for different scenarios to reduce damages. Surge damages are best reduced through a surge barrier. Wind damages are best reduced by a portfolio of techniques that, assuming they work and are correctly deployed, include wind-wave pumps

Communicating Risk to the Public

As the recognition of risks in our society increases, so does the volume of communications about those risks. </p

What Do We Know About Making Risk Comparisons?

The risks of unfamiliar technologies are often evaluated by comparing them with the risks of more familiar ones. Such risk comparisons have been criticized for neglecting critical dimensions of risky decisions. In a guide written for the Chemical Manufacturers Association, Covello et al.(1) have summarized these critiques and developed a taxonomy that characterizes possible risk comparisons in terms of their acceptability (or objectionableness). We asked four diverse groups of subjects to judge the acceptability of 14 statements produced by Covello et al. as examples of their categories. We found no correlation between the judgments of acceptability produced by our subjects and those predicted by Covello et al..</p