Preliminary archaeoentomological analyses of permafrost-preserved cultural layers from the pre-contact Yup’ik Eskimo site of Nunalleq, Alaska : implications, potential and methodological considerations

Acknowledgements Site excavation and samples collection were conducted by archaeologists from the University of Aberdeen, with the help of archaeologists and student excavators from the University of Aberdeen University of Alaska Fairbanks and Bryn Mawr College, Kuskokwim Campus, College of Rural Alaska and residents of Quinhagak and Mekoryuk. This study is funded through AHRC grant to the project ‘Understanding Cultural Resilience and Climate Change on the Bering Sea through Yup’ik Ecological Knowledge, Lifeways, Learning and Archaeology’ to Rick Knecht, Kate Britton and Charlotta Hillderal (University of Aberdeen; AH/K006029/1). Thanks are due to Qanirtuuq Inc. and Quinhagak, Alaska for sampling permissions and to entomologists working at the CNC in Ottawa for allowing access to reference collections of beetles, lice and fleas. Yves Bousquet, Ales Smetana and Anthony E. Davies are specially acknowledged for their help with the identification of coleopteran specimens. Finally, we would also like to thank Scott Elias for useful comments on the original manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Maternal dietary fatty acid intake during pregnancy and the risk of preclinical and clinical type 1 diabetes in the offspring.

The aim of the present study was to examine the associations between the maternal intake of fatty acids during pregnancy and the risk of preclinical and clinical type 1 diabetes in the offspring. The study included 4887 children with human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-conferred type 1 diabetes susceptibility born during the years 1997-2004 from the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention Study. Maternal diet was assessed with a validated FFQ. The offspring were observed at 3- to 12-month intervals for the appearance of type 1 diabetes-associated autoantibodies and development of clinical type 1 diabetes (average follow-up period: 4·6 years (range 0·5-11·5 years)). Altogether, 240 children developed preclinical type 1 diabetes and 112 children developed clinical type 1 diabetes. Piecewise linear log-hazard survival model and Cox proportional-hazards regression were used for statistical analyses. The maternal intake of palmitic acid (hazard ratio (HR) 0·82, 95 % CI 0·67, 0·99) and high consumption of cheese during pregnancy (highest quarter v. intermediate half HR 0·52, 95 % CI 0·31, 0·87) were associated with a decreased risk of clinical type 1 diabetes. The consumption of sour milk products (HR 1·14, 95 % CI 1·02, 1·28), intake of protein from sour milk (HR 1·15, 95 % CI 1·02, 1·29) and intake of fat from fresh milk (HR 1·43, 95 % CI 1·04, 1·96) were associated with an increased risk of preclinical type 1 diabetes, and the intake of low-fat margarines (HR 0·67, 95 % CI 0·49, 0·92) was associated with a decreased risk. No conclusive associations between maternal fatty acid intake or food consumption during pregnancy and the development of type 1 diabetes in the offspring were detected

Sensitivity analysis for clinical trials with missing continuous outcome data using controlled multiple imputation: a practical guide

Missing data due to loss to follow‐up or intercurrent events are unintended, but unfortunately inevitable in clinical trials. Since the true values of missing data are never known, it is necessary to assess the impact of untestable and unavoidable assumptions about any unobserved data in sensitivity analysis. This tutorial provides an overview of controlled multiple imputation (MI) techniques and a practical guide to their use for sensitivity analysis of trials with missing continuous outcome data. These include δ ‐ and reference‐based MI procedures. In δ ‐based imputation, an offset term, δ , is typically added to the expected value of the missing data to assess the impact of unobserved participants having a worse or better response than those observed. Reference‐based imputation draws imputed values with some reference to observed data in other groups of the trial, typically in other treatment arms. We illustrate the accessibility of these methods using data from a pediatric eczema trial and a chronic headache trial and provide Stata code to facilitate adoption. We discuss issues surrounding the choice of δ in δ ‐based sensitivity analysis. We also review the debate on variance estimation within reference‐based analysis and justify the use of Rubin's variance estimator in this setting, since as we further elaborate on within, it provides information anchored inference

Combining estimates of interest in prognostic modelling studies after multiple imputation: current practice and guidelines

Background: Multiple imputation (MI) provides an effective approach to handle missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies, as it can properly account for the missing data uncertainty. The multiply imputed datasets are each analysed using standard prognostic modelling techniques to obtain the estimates of interest. The estimates from each imputed dataset are then combined into one overall estimate and variance, incorporating both the within and between imputation variability. Rubin's rules for combining these multiply imputed estimates are based on asymptotic theory. The resulting combined estimates may be more accurate if the posterior distribution of the population parameter of interest is better approximated by the normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be appropriate for all the parameters of interest when analysing prognostic modelling studies, such as predicted survival probabilities and model performance measures. Methods: Guidelines for combining the estimates of interest when analysing prognostic modelling studies are provided. A literature review is performed to identify current practice for combining such estimates in prognostic modelling studies. Results: Methods for combining all reported estimates after MI were not well reported in the current literature. Rubin's rules without applying any transformations were the standard approach used, when any method was stated. Conclusion: The proposed simple guidelines for combining estimates after MI may lead to a wider and more appropriate use of MI in future prognostic modelling studies

A review of RCTs in four medical journals to assess the use of imputation to overcome missing data in quality of life outcomes

Background: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are perceived as the gold-standard method for evaluating healthcare interventions, and increasingly include quality of life (QoL) measures. The observed results are susceptible to bias if a substantial proportion of outcome data are missing. The review aimed to determine whether imputation was used to deal with missing QoL outcomes. Methods: A random selection of 285 RCTs published during 2005/6 in the British Medical Journal, Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine and Journal of American Medical Association were identified. Results: QoL outcomes were reported in 61 (21%) trials. Six (10%) reported having no missing data, 20 (33%) reported ≤ 10% missing, eleven (18%) 11%–20% missing, and eleven (18%) reported >20% missing. Missingness was unclear in 13 (21%). Missing data were imputed in 19 (31%) of the 61 trials. Imputation was part of the primary analysis in 13 trials, but a sensitivity analysis in six. Last value carried forward was used in 12 trials and multiple imputation in two. Following imputation, the most common analysis method was analysis of covariance (10 trials). Conclusion: The majority of studies did not impute missing data and carried out a complete-case analysis. For those studies that did impute missing data, researchers tended to prefer simpler methods of imputation, despite more sophisticated methods being available.The Health Services Research Unit is funded by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorate. Shona Fielding is also currently funded by the Chief Scientist Office on a Research Training Fellowship (CZF/1/31)

Children endorse deterrence motivations for third-party punishment but derive higher enjoyment from compensating victims.

Children’s punishment behavior may be driven by both retribution and deterrence, but the potential primacy of either motive is unknown. Moreover, children’s punishment enjoyment and compensation enjoyment have never been directly contrasted. Here, British, Colombian, and Italian 7- to 11-year-old children (N = 123) operated a Justice System in which they viewed different moral transgressions in Minecraft, a globally popular video game, either face-to-face with an experimenter or over the internet. Children could respond to transgressions by punishing transgressors and compensating victims. The purpose of the system was framed in terms of retribution, deterrence, or compensation between participants. Children’s performance, endorsement, and enjoyment of punishment and compensation were measured, along with their endorsement of retribution versus deterrence as punishment justifications, during and/or after justice administration. Children overwhelmingly endorsed deterrence over retribution as their punishment justification irrespective of age. When asked to reproduce the presented frame in their own words, children more reliably reproduced the deterrence frame rather than the retribution frame. Punishment enjoyment decreased while compensation enjoyment increased over time. Despite enjoying compensation more, children preferentially endorsed punishment over compensation, especially with increasing age and transgression severity. Reported deterrent justifications, superior reproduction of deterrence framing, lower enjoyment of punishment than of compensation, and higher endorsement of punishment over compensation together suggest that children felt that they ought to mete out punishment as a means to deter future transgressions. Face-to-face and internet-mediated responses were not distinguishable, supporting a route to social psychology research with primary school-aged children unable to physically visit labs

A review of RCTs in four medical journals to assess the use of imputation to overcome missing data in quality of life outcomes

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

When the Transmission of Culture Is Child's Play

Background: Humans frequently engage in arbitrary, conventional behavior whose primary purpose is to identify with cultural in-groups. The propensity for doing so is established early in human ontogeny as children become progressively enmeshed in their own cultural milieu. This is exemplified by their habitual replication of causally redundant actions shown to them by adults. Yet children seemingly ignore such actions shown to them by peers. How then does culture get transmitted intra-generationally? Here we suggest the answer might be 'in play'. Principal Findings: Using a diffusion chain design preschoolers first watched an adult retrieve a toy from a novel apparatus using a series of actions, some of which were obviously redundant. These children could then show another child how to open the apparatus, who in turn could show a third child. When the adult modeled the actions in a playful manner they were retained down to the third child at higher rates than when the adult seeded them in a functionally oriented way. Conclusions: Our results draw attention to the possibility that play might serve a critical function in the transmission of human culture by providing a mechanism for arbitrary ideas to spread between children

'The debatable territory where geology and archaeology meet': reassessing the early archaeobotanical work of Clement Reid and Arthur Lyell at Roman Silchester

The first large-scale archaeobotanical study in Britain, conducted from 1899 to 1909 by Clement Reid and Arthur Lyell at Silchester, provided the first evidence for the introduction of Roman plant foods to Britain, yet the findings have thus far remained unverified. This paper presents a reassessment of these archaeobotanical remains, now stored as part of the Silchester Collection in Reading Museum. The documentary evidence for the Silchester study is summarised, before the results are presented for over a 1000 plant remains including an assessment of preservation, identification and modern contamination. The dataset includes both evidence for the presence of nationally rare plant foods, such as medlar, and several archaeophytes. The methodologies and original interpretations of Reid and Lyell’s study are reassessed in light of current archaeobotanical knowledge. Spatial and contextual patterns in the distribution of plant foods and ornamental taxa are also explored. Finally, the legacy of the study for the development of archaeobotany in the 20th century is evaluated