Trends in the lifetime risk of developing cancer in Great Britain: comparison of risk for those born from 1930 to 1960

BACKGROUND: Typically, lifetime risk is calculated by the period method using current risks at different ages. Here, we estimate the probability of being diagnosed with cancer for individuals born in a given year, by estimating future risks as the cohort ages. METHODS: We estimated the lifetime risk of cancer in Britain separately for men and women born in each year from 1930 to 1960. We projected rates of all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and of all cancer deaths forwards using a flexible age-period-cohort model and backwards using age-specific extrapolation. The sensitivity of the estimated lifetime risk to the method of projection was explored. RESULTS: The lifetime risk of cancer increased from 38.5% for men born in 1930 to 53.5% for men born in 1960. For women it increased from 36.7 to 47.5%. Results are robust to different models for projections of cancer rates. CONCLUSIONS: The lifetime risk of cancer for people born since 1960 is >50%. Over half of people who are currently adults under the age of 65 years will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lifetime

Effect of radiotherapy after mastectomy and axillary surgery on 10-year recurrence and 20-year breast cancer mortality: meta-analysis of individual patient data for 8135 women in 22 randomised trials.

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Use of postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy and risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: a Danish Population-based Cohort Study

Use of postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy (HRT) has been hypothesised to be associated with a reduced risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), but the epidemiologic evidence is conflicting. To examine the risk of NHL in HRT users aged 40 and older, we conducted a cohort study in the County of North Jutland, Denmark (population 0.5 million) using data from population-based health registries for the period 1989–2002. We computed age-standardised NHL incidence rates and used Cox regression analysis to compute the relative risk (RR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) of NHL among HRT users compared with non-users, adjusting for age and calendar period. The number of prescriptions redeemed (1, 2–4, 5–9, 10–19, or 20 or more prescriptions) was used as a proxy for duration of HRT. We identified 40 NHL cases among HRT users during 179 838 person-years of follow-up and 310 NHL cases among non-users during 1 247 302 person-years of follow-up. The age-standardised incidence rates of NHL were 25.7 per 100 000 among HRT users and 24.2 per 100 000 among non-users, yielding an adjusted RR of 0.99 (95% CI: 0.71–1.39). Our data did not support an association between HRT use and risk of NHL