Mean Corpuscular Volume and Mortality in Incident Hemodialysis Patients.

Background/aimsAnemia is common in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). A proportion of patients present with macrocytic anemia, manifested by elevated mean corpuscular volume (MCV), which has been associated with worse outcomes in CKD patients. However, it is unknown whether elevated MCV is associated with higher mortality risk in incident hemodialysis (HD) patients.MethodsThis retrospective observational cohort study examined all-cause, cardiovascular, and infectious mortality associations with both baseline and time-varying MCV in 109,501 incident HD patients using Cox proportional hazards models with 3 levels of hierarchical multivariable adjustment. Odds ratios of high versus low baseline MCV were evaluated using logistic regression.ResultsThe mean age of patients was 65 ± 15 (standard deviation) years and the cohort was 44% female, 58% diabetic, and 31% African American. Higher MCV was associated with older age, female sex, non-Hispanic White race-ethnicity, alcohol consumption, and having a decreased albumin or protein intake. Patients with higher MCV levels (> 98 fL) had a higher all-cause, cardiovascular, and infectious mortality risk in both baseline and time varying models, and across all levels of adjustment. In the fully adjusted models, compared to a reference of MCV 92-< 94 fL, patients with a baseline MCV > 100+ fL had a 28% higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.22-1.34), 27% higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.18-1.36), and 18% higher risk of infectious mortality (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.02-1.38). Associations of higher MCV with these adverse outcomes persisted across all examined subgroups of clinical characteristics.ConclusionsHigher MCV was associated with higher all-cause, cardiovascular, and infectious mortality in HD patients. Further investigation is necessary to understand the underlying nature of the observed association

Semi-parametric modeling of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Orange County, California using tests, cases, deaths, and seroprevalence data

Mechanistic modeling of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and frequently estimating model parameters using streaming surveillance data are important components of the pandemic response toolbox. However, transmission model parameter estimation can be imprecise, and sometimes even impossible, because surveillance data are noisy and not informative about all aspects of the mechanistic model. To partially overcome this obstacle, we propose a Bayesian modeling framework that integrates multiple surveillance data streams. Our model uses both SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics test and mortality time series to estimate our model parameters, while also explicitly integrating seroprevalence data from cross-sectional studies. Importantly, our data generating model for incidence data takes into account changes in the total number of tests performed. We model transmission rate, infection-to-fatality ratio, and a parameter controlling a functional relationship between the true case incidence and the fraction of positive tests as time-varying quantities and estimate changes of these parameters nonparameterically. We apply our Bayesian data integration method to COVID-19 surveillance data collected in Orange County, California between March, 2020 and March, 2021 and find that 33-62% of the Orange County residents experienced SARS-CoV-2 infection by the end of February, 2021. Despite this high number of infections, our results show that the abrupt end of the winter surge in January, 2021, was due to both behavioral changes and a high level of accumulated natural immunity.Comment: 37 pages, 16 pages of main text, including 5 figures, 1 tabl

Does the Order of Invasive Species Removal Matter? The Case of the Eagle and the Pig

Invasive species are recognized as a primary driver of native species endangerment and their removal is often a key component of a conservation strategy. Removing invasive species is not always a straightforward task, however, especially when they interact with other species in complex ways to negatively influence native species. Because unintended consequences may arise if all invasive species cannot be removed simultaneously, the order of their removal is of paramount importance to ecological restoration. In the mid-1990s, three subspecies of the island fox Urocyon littoralis were driven to near extinction on the northern California Channel Islands owing to heightened predation by golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos. Eagles were lured to the islands by an abundant supply of feral pigs Sus scrofa and through the process of apparent competition pigs indirectly facilitated the decline in foxes. As a consequence, both pigs and eagles had to be removed to recover the critically endangered fox. Complete removal of pigs was problematic: removing pigs first could force eagles to concentrate on the remaining foxes, increasing their probability of extinction. Removing eagles first was difficult: eagles are not easily captured and lethal removal was politically distasteful.Using prey remains collected from eagle nests both before and after the eradication of pigs, we show that one pair of eagles that eluded capture did indeed focus more on foxes. These results support the premise that if the threat of eagle predation had not been mitigated prior to pig removal, fox extinction would have been a more likely outcome.If complete eradication of all interacting invasive species is not possible, the order in which they are removed requires careful consideration. If overlooked, unexpected consequences may result that could impede restoration

Heterotopic pancreas: gastric outlet obstruction secondary to pancreatitis and pancreatic pseudocyst

Heterotopic pancreas, usually a silent gastrointestinal anomaly, may become clinically evident when complicated by a pathologic process. We report a unique case in which pancreatitis and pseudocyst formation in an antral lesion produced gastric outlet obstruction. The nature of heterotopic pancreas, its diagnosis, and management are discussed

Predictors of Test Positivity, Mortality, and Seropositivity during the Early Coronavirus Disease Epidemic, Orange County, California, USA.

We conducted a detailed analysis of coronavirus disease in a large population center in southern California, USA (Orange County, population 3.2 million), to determine heterogeneity in risks for infection, test positivity, and death. We used a combination of datasets, including a population-representative seroprevalence survey, to assess the actual burden of disease and testing intensity, test positivity, and mortality. In the first month of the local epidemic (March 2020), case incidence clustered in high-income areas. This pattern quickly shifted, and cases next clustered in much higher rates in the north-central area of the county, which has a lower socioeconomic status. Beginning in April 2020, a concentration of reported cases, test positivity, testing intensity, and seropositivity in a north-central area persisted. At the individual level, several factors (e.g., age, race or ethnicity, and ZIP codes with low educational attainment) strongly affected risk for seropositivity and death

The Importance of Offering Exome or Genome Sequencing in Adult Neuromuscular Clinics

Advances in gene-specific therapeutics for patients with neuromuscular disorders (NMDs) have brought increased attention to the importance of genetic diagnosis. Genetic testing practices vary among adult neuromuscular clinics, with multi-gene panel testing currently being the most common approach; follow-up testing using broad-based methods, such as exome or genome sequencing, is less consistently offered. Here, we use five case examples to illustrate the unique ability of broad-based testing to improve diagnostic yield, resulting in identification of SORD-neuropathy, HADHB-related disease, ATXN2-ALS, MECP2 related progressive gait decline and spasticity, and DNMT1-related cerebellar ataxia, deafness, narcolepsy, and hereditary sensory neuropathy type 1E. We describe in each case the technological advantages that enabled identification of the causal gene, and the resultant clinical and personal implications for the patient, demonstrating the importance of offering exome or genome sequencing to adults with NMDs