Market Efficiency, Time-Varying Volatility and Equity Returns in Bangladesh Stock Market

This paper empirically examines the issue of market efficiency and time- varying risk return relationship for Bangladesh, an emerging equity market in South Asia. The study utilizes a unique data set of daily stock prices and returns compiled by the authors which was not utilized in any previous study. The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) equity returns show positive skewness, excess kurtosis and deviation from normality. The returns display significant serial correlation, implying stock market inefficiency. The results also show a significant relationship between conditional volatility and the stock returns, but the risk- return parameter is negative and statistically significant. While this result is not consistent with the portfolio theory, it is possible theoretically in emerging markets as investors may not demand higher risk premia if they are better able to bear risk at times of particular volatility (Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle, 1993). While circuit breaker overall did not have any impact on stock volatility, the imposition of the lock-in period has contributed to the price discovery mechanism by reverting an overall negative risk-return time-varying relationship into a positive one. As a policy to improve the capital market efficiency, the timely disclosure and dissemination of information to the shareholders and investors on the performance of listed companies should be emphasized.

Market Efficiency, Time-Varying Volatility and Equity Returns in Bangladesh Stock Market

This paper empirically examines the issue of market efficiency and time-varying risk return relationship for Bangladesh, an emerging equity market in South Asia. The study utilizes a unique data set of daily stock prices and returns compiled by the authors which was not utilized in any previous study. The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) equity returns show positive skewness, excess kurtosis and deviation from normality. The returns display significant serial correlation, implying stock market inefficiency. The results also show a significant relationship between conditional volatility and the stock returns, but the risk-return parameter is negative and statistically significant. While this result is not consistent with the portfolio theory, it is possible theoretically in emerging markets as investors may not demand higher risk premia if they are better able to bear risk at times of particular volatility (Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle, 1993). While circuit breaker overall did not have any impact on stock volatility, the imposition of the lock-in period has contributed to the price discovery mechanism by reverting an overall negative riskreturn time-varying relationship into a positive one. As a policy to improve the capital market efficiency, the timely disclosure and dissemination of information to the shareholders and investors on the performance of listed companies should be emphasized.

Late Holocene landscape change history related to the Alpine Fault determined from drowned forests in Lake Poerua, Westland, New Zealand

Lake Poerua is a small, shallow lake that abuts the scarp of the Alpine Fault on the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island. Radiocarbon dates from drowned podocarp trees on the lake floor, a sediment core from a rangefront alluvial fan, and living tree ring ages have been used to deduce the late Holocene history of the lake. Remnant drowned stumps of kahikatea (Dacrycarpus dacrydioides) at 1.7–1.9m water depth yield a preferred time-ofdeath age at 1766–1807 AD, while a dryland podocarp and kahikatea stumps at 2.4–2.6m yield preferred time-of-death ages of ca. 1459–1626 AD. These age ranges are matched to, but offset from, the timings of Alpine Fault rupture events at ca. 1717 AD, and either ca. 1615 or 1430 AD. Alluvial fan detritus dated from a core into the toe of a rangefront alluvial fan, at an equivalent depth to the maximum depth of the modern lake (6.7 m), yields a calibrated age of AD 1223–1413. This age is similar to the timing of an earlier Alpine Fault rupture event at ca. 1230AD±50 yr. Kahikatea trees growing on rangefront fans give ages of up to 270 yr, which is consistent with alluvial fan aggradation following the 1717AD earthquake. The elevation levels of the lake and fan imply a causal and chronological link between lake-level rise and Alpine Fault rupture. The results of this study suggest that the growth of large, coalescing alluvial fans (Dry and Evans Creek fans) originating from landslides within the rangefront of the Alpine Fault and the rise in the level of Lake Poerua may occur within a decade or so of large Alpine Fault earthquakes that rupture adjacent to this area. These rises have in turn drowned lowland forests that fringed the lake. Radiocarbon chronologies built using OxCal show that a series of massive landscape changes beginning with fault rupture, followed by landsliding, fan sedimentation and lake expansion. However, drowned Kahikatea trees may be poor candidates for intimately dating these events, as they may be able to tolerate water for several decades after metre-scale lake level rises have occurred

Epidemiological manifestations of hepatitis C virus genotypes and its association with potential risk factors among Libyan patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The information on hepatitis C virus genotypes and subtypes among Libyan population and its association with various risk factors is not known. The objectives of this study were to determine the epidemiological manifestations of HCV genotypes among Libyan patients and their association with certain potential risk factors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 1240 of HCV infected patients registered at Tripoli Medical Centre were studied in five years period from January 2005 to October 2009. The information were reviewed and the data were collected. A sample from each patient (785 male; 455 female) was analysed for genotyping and sub-typing using specific genotyping assay. The information was correlated with the risk factors studied and the statistical data were analyzed using SPSS version 11.5.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Off the total patients studied, four different genotypes were reported, including genotypes 1, 2, 3, and 4. Genotype4 was the commonest (35.7%), followed by genotype1 (32.6%). According to subtypes 28% were unclassified genotype 4, 14.6% were genotype 1b and some patients infected with more than one subtype (2.3% genotype 4c/d, 1% genotype 2a/c). Genotypes 1 was the commonest among males, while genotype 4 among females. According to the risk factors studied, Genotype1 and genotype 4 were found with most of the risk factors. Though they were particularly evident surgical intervention, dental procedures and blood transfusion while genotype 1 was only followed by genotype 3 mainly which mainly associated with certain risk groups such as intravenous drug abusers.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Here in we report on a detailed description of HCV genotype among Libyans. The most common genotype was type 4 followed by genotype 1, other genotypes were also reported at a low rate. The distribution of such genotypes were also variable according to gender and age. The commonly prevalent genotypes found to be attributable to the medical -related transmission of HCV, such as blood, surgery and dental procedures when compared with other risk factors. This however, raises an alarming signal on the major steps to be taken to reduce such infection in Libya</p

Coping with the climate: a way forward : summary and proposals for action

Seasonal weather and climate fluctuations have significant impacts on society, via agriculture, food security, water, health, natural disasters and the environment. These can be a major brake on economic progress in the developing world. Climate thus sits at the nexus of the two principal development concerns, poverty and sustainable development. Concerns about climate change and the emergence of scientific forecasting of El Niño have set the stage for a fresh approach to addressing the problems of preparing for the coming season and managing climatic risks. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) were first initiated in 1996 and gained momentum as a regional response to the major El Niño event of 1997/98. Since that time they have rapidly become the main regional mechanism for the formulation and dissemination of seasonal climate forecasts to policymakers and other climate information users. In many regions RCOFs continue to convene regularly before, during, and after key rainfall seasons. Globally more than thirty have been held to date, employing a variety of approaches. The Forums bring together climate scientists, operational forecasters and climate information users to formulate climate outlook guidance and to discuss the implications of probable climate outcomes for climate-sensitive sectors. In the process a substantial amount of experience and knowledge has been gained in the generation, communication and application of seasonal climate information. This report summarizes the results of a global review of the effectiveness of the RCOFs and related activities. Through an exhaustive stakeholder-driven process, drawing on the experiences of hundreds of organizations, the review has sought to identify key issues, constraints and opportunities for improving the forum process and its contribution to the management of climate variability and change. Proposals are made to advance the goals of the RCOFs to reduce vulnerability to climate variability and change in sensitive regions and sectors

Outbreak of encephalitic listeriosis in red-legged partridges (Alectoris rufa)

An outbreak of neurological disease was investigated in red-legged partridges between 8 and 28 days of age. Clinical signs included torticollis, head tilt and incoordination and over an initial eight day period approximately 30–40 fatalities occurred per day. No significant gross post mortem findings were detected. Histopathological examination of the brain and bacterial cultures followed by partial sequencing confirmed a diagnosis of encephalitis due to Listeria monocytogenes. Further isolates were obtained from follow-up carcasses, environmental samples and pooled tissue samples of newly imported day-old chicks prior to placement on farm. These isolates had the same antibiotic resistance pattern as the isolate of the initial post mortem submission and belonged to the same fluorescent amplified fragment length polymorphism (fAFLP) subtype. This suggested that the isolates were very closely related or identical and that the pathogen had entered the farm with the imported day-old chicks, resulting in disease manifestation in partridges between 8 and 28 days of age. Reports of outbreaks of encephalitic listeriosis in avian species are rare and this is to the best of our knowledge the first reported outbreak in red-legged partridges