Modelling H5N1 in Bangladesh across spatial scales : model complexity and zoonotic transmission risk

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a persistent public health threat, capable of causing infection in humans with a high mortality rate while simultaneously negatively impacting the livestock industry. A central question is to determine regions that are likely sources of newly emerging influenza strains with pandemic causing potential. A suitable candidate is Bangladesh, being one of the most densely populated countries in the world and having an intensifying farming system. It is therefore vital to establish the key factors, specific to Bangladesh, that enable both continued transmission within poultry and spillover across the human–animal interface. We apply a modelling framework to H5N1 epidemics in the Dhaka region of Bangladesh, occurring from 2007 onwards, that resulted in large outbreaks in the poultry sector and a limited number of confirmed human cases. This model consisted of separate poultry transmission and zoonotic transmission components. Utilising poultry farm spatial and population information a set of competing nested models of varying complexity were fitted to the observed case data, with parameter inference carried out using Bayesian methodology and goodness-of-fit verified by stochastic simulations. For the poultry transmission component, successfully identifying a model of minimal complexity, which enabled the accurate prediction of the size and spatial distribution of cases in H5N1 outbreaks, was found to be dependent on the administration level being analysed. A consistent outcome of non-optimal reporting of infected premises materialised in each poultry epidemic of interest, though across the outbreaks analysed there were substantial differences in the estimated transmission parameters. The zoonotic transmission component found the main contributor to spillover transmission of H5N1 in Bangladesh was found to differ from one poultry epidemic to another. We conclude by discussing possible explanations for these discrepancies in transmission behaviour between epidemics, such as changes in surveillance sensitivity and biosecurity practices

The impact of surveillance and control on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in Dhaka division, Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, the poultry industry is an economically and socially important sector, but it is persistently threatened by the effects of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. Thus, identifying the optimal control policy in response to an emerging disease outbreak is a key challenge for policy-makers. To inform this aim, a common approach is to carry out simulation studies comparing plausible strategies, while accounting for known capacity restrictions. In this study we perform simulations of a previously developed H5N1 influenza transmission model framework, fitted to two separate historical outbreaks, to assess specific control objectives related to the burden or duration of H5N1 outbreaks among poultry farms in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh. In particular, we explore the optimal implementation of ring culling, ring vaccination and active surveillance measures when presuming disease transmission predominately occurs from premises-to-premises, versus a setting requiring the inclusion of external factors. Additionally, we determine the sensitivity of the management actions under consideration to differing levels of capacity constraints and outbreaks with disparate transmission dynamics. While we find that reactive culling and vaccination policies should pay close attention to these factors to ensure intervention targeting is optimised, across multiple settings the top performing control action amongst those under consideration were targeted proactive surveillance schemes. Our findings may advise the type of control measure, plus its intensity, that could potentially be applied in the event of a developing outbreak of H5N1 amongst originally H5N1 virus-free commercially-reared poultry in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh

A large-scale study of a poultry trading network in Bangladesh: implications for control and surveillance of avian influenza viruses

Since its first report in 2007, avian influenza (AI) has been endemic in Bangladesh. While live poultry marketing is widespread throughout the country and known to influence AI dissemination and persistence, trading patterns have not been described. The aim of this study is to assess poultry trading practices and features of the poultry trading networks which could promote AI spread, and their potential implications for disease control and surveillance. Data on poultry trading practices was collected from 849 poultry traders during a cross-sectional survey in 138 live bird markets (LBMs) across 17 different districts of Bangladesh. The quantity and origins of traded poultry were assessed for each poultry type in surveyed LBMs. The network of contacts between farms and LBMs resulting from commercial movements of live poultry was constructed to assess its connectivity and to identify the key premises influencing it

Characterization of the fine specificity of bovine CD8 T-cell responses to defined antigens from the protozoan parasite Theileria parva

Immunity against the bovine intracellular protozoan parasite Theileria parva has been shown to be mediated by CD8 T cells. Six antigens targeted by CD8 T cells from T. parva-immune cattle of different major histocompatibility complex (MHC) genotypes have been identified, raising the prospect of developing a subunit vaccine. To facilitate further dissection of the specificity of protective CD8 T-cell responses and to assist in the assessment of responses to vaccination, we set out to identify the epitopes recognized in these T. parva antigens and their MHC restriction elements. Nine epitopes in six T. parva antigens, together with their respective MHC restriction elements, were successfully identified. Five of the cytotoxic-T-lymphocyte epitopes were found to be restricted by products of previously described alleles, and four were restricted by four novel restriction elements. Analyses of CD8 T-cell responses to five of the epitopes in groups of cattle carrying the defined restriction elements and immunized with live parasites demonstrated that, with one exception, the epitopes were consistently recognized by animals of the respective genotypes. The analysis of responses was extended to animals immunized with multiple antigens delivered in separate vaccine constructs. Specific CD8 T-cell responses were detected in 19 of 24 immunized cattle. All responder cattle mounted responses specific for antigens for which they carried an identified restriction element. By contrast, only 8 of 19 responder cattle displayed a response to antigens for which they did not carry an identified restriction element. These data demonstrate that the identified antigens are inherently dominant in animals with the corresponding MHC genotypes

Neospora caninum: specific oligonucleotide primers for the detection of brain "cyst" DNA of experimentally infected nude mice by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR).

Both tachyzoites and bradyzoites in tissue cysts of Neospora caninum are morphologically difficult to distinguish from those of other cyst-forming apicomplexan parasites such as Toxoplasma gondii. Thus, molecular tools may contribute to easy identification of the parasite. Based upon an N. caninum-specific DNA fragment that we have recently cloned, 5 sense (Np1, Np3, Np5, Np7, Np21) and 4 antisense (Np2, Np4, Np6, Np8) oligonucleotides were designed for a sensitive and specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Among 19 combinations of sense and antisense primers, the Np21/Np6, Np21/Np4, and Np7/Np6 primer pairs were found to generate specific single bands in the presence of at least 10 pg genomic parasite DNA as a template. The primer pair Np21/Np6 was able to detect a single tachyzoite in the background of DNA derived from 2 mg of brain tissue. In experimentally infected athymic ICR:nu/nu mice, N. caninum-DNA was detected consistently from brain tissue at days 13 and 18 after subcutaneous inoculation of tachyzoites. The presence or absence of the organisms in the cerebrum in either proliferative or cystic form was examined by immunohistological staining. The results indicate that PCR with the primer pair Np21/Np6 could provide an efficient tool for large-scale epidemiological studies using brain tissue obtained at necropsy