The Long-Term Effects of the Chernobyl Catastrophe on Subjective Well-Being and Mental Health

This paper assesses the long-term subjective well-being and mental health toll of the Chernobyl disaster of 1986 in the general Ukrainian population and estimates the monetary differential necessary to compensate victims of the catastrophe. The analysis is based on two nationally representative Ukrainian data sets and reveals that even 20 years after the accident subjective well-being is negatively associated with self-reported assessments of having been affected by the catastrophe. The causal long-term effect of the disaster on life satisfaction is established by exploiting variation in official radiation data which are linked to survey respondents through information on their place of living in 1986. We find higher depression and trauma rates as well as poorer subjective life expectancy among those stronger affected by Chernobyl. Expressed in monetary terms, the estimated amount of income required to compensate for the experienced utility loss amounts to an annual cost of seven percent of Ukraine's GDP.Chernobyl catastrophe, subjective well-being, mental health, instrumental variable

No evidence for synchronization of the solar cycle by a "clock"

The length of the solar activity cycle fluctuates considerably. The temporal evolution of the corresponding cycle phase, that is, the deviation of the epochs of activity minima or maxima from strict periodicity, provides relevant information concerning the physical mechanism underlying the cyclic magnetic activity. An underlying strictly periodic process (akin to a perfect "clock"), with the observer seeing a superposition of the perfect clock and a small random phase perturbation, leads to long-term phase stability in the observations. Such behavior would be expected if cycles were synchronized by tides caused by orbiting planets or by a hypothetical torsional oscillation in the solar radiative interior. Alternatively, in the absence of such synchronization, phase fluctuations accumulate and a random walk of the phase ensues, which is a typical property of randomly perturbed dynamo models. Based on the sunspot record and the reconstruction of solar cycles from cosmogenic C14, we carried out rigorous statistical tests in order to decipher whether there exists phase synchronization or random walk. Synchronization is rejected at significance levels of between 95% (28 cycles from sunspot data) and beyond 99% (84 cycles reconstructed from C14, while the existence of random walk in the phases is consistent with all data sets. This result strongly supports randomly perturbed dynamo models with little inter-cycle memory.Comment: Astronomy & Astrophysics, in pres