Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie

Identifying which nonindigenous species will become invasive and forecasting the damage they will cause is difficult and presents a significant problem for natural resource management. Often, the data or resources necessary for ecological risk assessment are incomplete or absent, leaving environmental decision makers ill equipped to effectively manage valuable natural resources. Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is a mathematical and performance‐based method of eliciting, weighting, and aggregating expert judgments. In contrast to other methods of eliciting and aggregating expert judgments (where, for example, equal weights may be assigned to experts), SEJ weights each expert on the basis of his or her statistical accuracy and informativeness through performance measurement on a set of calibration variables. We used SEJ to forecast impacts of nonindigenous Asian carp (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in Lake Erie, where it is believed not to be established. Experts quantified Asian carp biomass, production, and consumption and their impact on 4 fish species if Asian carp were to become established. According to experts, in Lake Erie Asian carp have the potential to achieve biomass levels that are similar to the sum of biomasses for several fishes that are harvested commercially or recreationally. However, the impact of Asian carp on the biomass of these fishes was estimated by experts to be small, relative to long term average biomasses, with little uncertainty. Impacts of Asian carp in tributaries and on recreational activities, water quality, or other species were not addressed. SEJ can be used to quantify key uncertainties of invasion biology and also provide a decision‐support tool when the necessary information for natural resource management and policy is not available.El Uso de Juicio Experto Estructurado para Predecir Invasiones de Carpas Asiáticas en el Lago ErieResumenIdentificar cuáles especies no‐nativas se volverán invasoras y predecir el daño que causarán es complicado y presenta un problema significativo para el manejo de recursos naturales. Con frecuencia los datos o recursos necesarios para la evaluación de riesgo ecológico están incompletos o son inexistentes, lo que deja mal equipados a quienes toman las decisiones ambientales para manejar efectivamente recursos naturales valiosos. El juicio experto estructurado (JEE) es un método con bases matemáticas y de desempeño para obtener, sopesar y agregar juicios expertos. En contraste con otros métodos de obtención y agregación de juicios expertos (donde, por ejemplo, se le pueden asignar pesos iguales a los expertos), JEE sopesa a cada experto con base en su asertividad estadística y capacidad de informar por medio de la medida de desempeño en un conjunto de variables de calibración. Usamos JEE para predecir los impactos de las carpas asiáticas no‐nativas Hypophthalmichthys spp. en el Lago Erie, donde se cree que no se ha establecido. Los expertos cuantificaron la biomasa, producción y consumo de la carpa asiática y su impacto sobre cuatro especies de peces si la carpa asiática se llegara a establecer en el lago. De acuerdo a los expertos, en el Lago Erie, la carpa asiática tiene el potencial de adquirir niveles de biomasa similares a la suma de biomasa de varios peces que se han cultivado comercialmente o recreativamente. Sin embargo, se estimó por los expertos que el impacto de la carpa asiática sobre la biomasa de estos peces sería pequeño, con poca incertidumbre. Los impactos de la carpa asiática sobre los tributarios y las actividades recreativas, la calidad del agua o sobre otras especies no se evaluaron. El JEE puede usarse para cuantificar incertidumbres clave de la biología de la invasión y también proporcionar una herramienta de apoyo para las decisiones cuando la información necesaria para el manejo de los recursos naturales y la política no está disponible.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/110571/1/cobi12369.pd

Analysis of the Healthcare MERS-CoV Outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 Using a SEIR Ward Transmission Model

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is an emerging zoonotic coronavirus that has a tendency to cause significant healthcare outbreaks among patients with serious comorbidities. We analyzed hospital data from the MERS-CoV outbreak in King Abdulaziz Medical Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, June–August 2015 using the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) ward transmission model. The SEIR compartmental model considers several areas within the hospital where transmission occurred. We use a system of ordinary differential equations that incorporates the following units: emergency department (ED), out-patient clinic, intensive care unit, and hospital wards, where each area has its own carrying capacity and distinguishes the transmission by three individuals in the hospital: patients, health care workers (HCW), or mobile health care workers. The emergency department, as parameterized has a large influence over the epidemic size for both patients and health care workers. Trend of the basic reproduction number (R0), which reached a maximum of 1.39 at the peak of the epidemic and declined to 0.92 towards the end, shows that until added hospital controls are introduced, the outbreak would continue with sustained transmission between wards. Transmission rates where highest in the ED, and mobile HCWs were responsible for large part of the outbreak

Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease

A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the Classical Model of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available

Expression of Ixodes scapularis Antifreeze Glycoprotein Enhances Cold Tolerance in Drosophila melanogaster

Drosophila melanogaster experience cold shock injury and die when exposed to low non-freezing temperatures. In this study, we generated transgenic D. melanogaster that express putative Ixodes scapularis antifreeze glycoprotein (IAFGP) and show that the presence of IAFGP increases the ability of flies to survive in the cold. Male and female adult iafgp-expressing D. melanogaster exhibited higher survival rates compared with controls when placed at non-freezing temperatures. Increased hatching rates were evident in embryos expressing IAFGP when exposed to the cold. The TUNEL assay showed that flight muscles from iafgp-expressing female adult flies exhibited less apoptotic damage upon exposure to non-freezing temperatures in comparison to control flies. Collectively, these data suggest that expression of iafgp increases cold tolerance in flies by preventing apoptosis. This study defines a molecular basis for the role of an antifreeze protein in cryoprotection of flies

Of risks and regulations: how leading U.S. nanoscientists form policy stances about nanotechnology

Even though there is a high degree of scientific uncertainty about the risks of nanotechnology, many scholars have argued that policy-making cannot be placed on hold until risk assessments are complete (Faunce, Med J Aust 186(4):189–191, 2007; Kuzma, J Nanopart Res 9(1):165–182, 2007; O’Brien and Cummins, Hum Ecol Risk Assess 14(3):568–592, 2008; Powell et al., Environ Manag 42(3):426–443, 2008). In the absence of risk assessment data, decision makers often rely on scientists’ input about risks and regulation to make policy decisions. The research we present here goes beyond the earlier descriptive studies about nanotechnology regulation to explore the heuristics that the leading U.S. nanoscientists use when they make policy decisions about regulating nanotechnology. In particular, we explore the relationship between nanoscientists’ risk and benefit perceptions and their support for nanotech regulation. We conclude that nanoscientists are more supportive of regulating nanotechnology when they perceive higher levels of risks; yet, their perceived benefits about nanotechnology do not significantly impact their support for nanotech regulation. We also find some gender and disciplinary differences among the nanoscientists. Males are less supportive of nanotech regulation than their female peers and materials scientists are more supportive of nanotechnology regulation than scientists in other fields. Lastly, our findings illustrate that the leading U.S. nanoscientists see the areas of surveillance/privacy, human enhancement, medicine, and environment as the nanotech application areas that are most in need of new regulations

Anhydrobiosis and Freezing-Tolerance:Adaptations That Facilitate the Establishment of Panagrolaimus Nematodes in Polar Habitats

<div><p>Anhydrobiotic animals can survive the loss of both free and bound water from their cells. While in this state they are also resistant to freezing. This physiology adapts anhydrobiotes to harsh environments and it aids their dispersal. <i>Panagrolaimus davidi</i>, a bacterial feeding anhydrobiotic nematode isolated from Ross Island Antarctica, can survive intracellular ice formation when fully hydrated. A capacity to survive freezing while fully hydrated has also been observed in some other Antarctic nematodes. We experimentally determined the anhydrobiotic and freezing-tolerance phenotypes of 24 <i>Panagrolaimus</i> strains from tropical, temperate, continental and polar habitats and we analysed their phylogenetic relationships. We found that several other <i>Panagrolaimus</i> isolates can also survive freezing when fully hydrated and that tissue extracts from these freezing-tolerant nematodes can inhibit the growth of ice crystals. We show that <i>P. davidi</i> belongs to a clade of anhydrobiotic and freezing-tolerant panagrolaimids containing strains from temperate and continental regions and that <i>P. superbus</i>, an early colonizer at Surtsey island, Iceland after its volcanic formation, is closely related to a species from Pennsylvania, USA. Ancestral state reconstructions show that anhydrobiosis evolved deep in the phylogeny of <i>Panagrolaimus</i>. The early-diverging <i>Panagrolaimus</i> lineages are strongly anhydrobiotic but weakly freezing-tolerant, suggesting that freezing tolerance is most likely a derived trait. The common ancestors of the <i>davidi</i> and the <i>superbus</i> clades were anhydrobiotic and also possessed robust freezing tolerance, along with a capacity to inhibit the growth and recrystallization of ice crystals. Unlike other endemic Antarctic nematodes, the life history traits of <i>P. davidi</i> do not show evidence of an evolved response to polar conditions. Thus we suggest that the colonization of Antarctica by <i>P. davidi</i> and of Surtsey by <i>P. superbus</i> may be examples of recent “ecological fitting” of freezing-tolerant anhydrobiotic propagules to the respective abiotic conditions in Ross Island and Surtsey.</p></div