Seasonal time-series modeling and forecasting of monthly mean temperature for decision making in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

A generalized structural time-series modeling framework was used to analyze the monthly records of mean temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using classical stochastic processes. In this article we are using the SARIMA Box–Jenkins model and obtain a medium-term (10 years) forecast of the mean temperature in Erbil. A prediction of the monthly mean temperature during the past 287 months ((Formula presented.)24 years) using the SARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)12 model predicts that the average temperature in the governorate of Erbil, Iraq, will be stable for the next 10 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that our model performs equally well when applying it to different periods of time for which data is available. The method used here could easily be applied by the decision makers responsible for providing water and electricity in the Kurdistan Region

Pregnancy postponement and childlessness leads to chronic hypervascularity of the breasts and cancer risk

Epidemiologists have established that women with small families, and particularly nulliparae, are prone to develop breast cancer later in life. We report that physiological mammary hypervascularity may be an intermediate reason against the background that breast-core vascularity is normal in pregnancy but pathological in the vascularisation of cancer. We examined breast ‘core’ vascularity in nulliparae during their potential reproductive life and in parous women after their last birth but before their menopause. Fifty clinically normal pre-menopausal non-pregnant women (100 breasts) were studied daily for one ‘luteal positive’ menstrual cycle. Their parity history varied from zero to five babies. Under controlled domestic conditions each wore a special electronic thermometric bra to automatically record breast ‘core’ temperature changes as a measure of mammary tissue blood flow. In the nulliparae there was a rise of breast vascularity throughout reproductive life. In the parous women, a year or so after each birth, breast vascularity was reset at a lower level than before the pregnancy; thereafter, as in nulliparae, there was progressive increase in mammary vascularity until the menopause

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF BANKING PERFORMANCE OF COMERCIAL BANKS GROUPS. CASE STUDY: TURKEY VS. ROMANIA

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to present a comparative analysis of performance between two commercial bank groups from Turkey and Romania. In conducting the study we have considered evaluating financial performance achieved by a group of commercial banks in Turkey and Romania in relation to the Eurozone during 1999-2016 and examine the level of liquidity of assets acquired during these 18 years of activity of these two banking groups, in comparison with the Eurozone. In this analysis there were tested three hypotheses based on the performance indicators used by the two banking trade groups and the indicators used in the specialty literature. Results and interpretations from this study/ testing were presented and interpreted, in the case of these two banking trade groups. The article ends with the authors’ conclusions related to comparative analysis of bank performance between the two commercial bank groups in Turkey and Romania