Theory of aces: high score by skill or luck?

We studied the distribution of World War I fighter pilots by the number of victories they were credited with, along with casualty reports. Using the maximum entropy method we obtained the underlying distribution of pilots by their skill. We find that the variance of this skill distribution is not very large, and that the top aces achieved their victory scores mostly by luck. For example, the ace of aces, Manfred von Richthofen, most likely had a skill in the top quarter of the active WWI German fighter pilots and was no more special than that. When combined with our recent study (cond-mat/0310049), showing that fame grows exponentially with victory scores, these results (derived from real data) show that both outstanding achievement records and resulting fame are mostly due to chance

Stochastic modeling of a serial killer

We analyze the time pattern of the activity of a serial killer, who during twelve years had murdered 53 people. The plot of the cumulative number of murders as a function of time is of "Devil's staircase" type. The distribution of the intervals between murders (step length) follows a power law with the exponent of 1.4. We propose a model according to which the serial killer commits murders when neuronal excitation in his brain exceeds certain threshold. We model this neural activity as a branching process, which in turn is approximated by a random walk. As the distribution of the random walk return times is a power law with the exponent 1.5, the distribution of the inter-murder intervals is thus explained. We illustrate analytical results by numerical simulation. Time pattern activity data from two other serial killers further substantiate our analysis

Why does attention to web articles fall with time?

We analyze access statistics of a hundred and fifty blog entries and news articles, for periods of up to three years. Access rate falls as an inverse power of time passed since publication. The power law holds for periods of up to thousand days. The exponents are different for different blogs and are distributed between 0.6 and 3.2. We argue that the decay of attention to a web article is caused by the link to it first dropping down the list of links on the website's front page, and then disappearing from the front page and its subsequent movement further into background. The other proposed explanations that use a decaying with time novelty factor, or some intricate theory of human dynamics cannot explain all of the experimental observations.Comment: To appear in JASIS

Algorithmic Cooling of Spins: A Practicable Method for Increasing Polarization

An efficient technique to generate ensembles of spins that are highly polarized by external magnetic fields is the Holy Grail in Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Since spin-half nuclei have steady-state polarization biases that increase inversely with temperature, spins exhibiting high polarization biases are considered cool, even when their environment is warm. Existing spin-cooling techniques are highly limited in their efficiency and usefulness. Algorithmic cooling is a promising new spin-cooling approach that employs data compression methods in open systems. It reduces the entropy of spins on long molecules to a point far beyond Shannon's bound on reversible entropy manipulations (an information-theoretic version of the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics), thus increasing their polarization. Here we present an efficient and experimentally feasible algorithmic cooling technique that cools spins to very low temperatures even on short molecules. This practicable algorithmic cooling could lead to breakthroughs in high-sensitivity NMR spectroscopy in the near future, and to the development of scalable NMR quantum computers in the far future. Moreover, while the cooling algorithm itself is classical, it uses quantum gates in its implementation, thus representing the first short-term application of quantum computing devices.Comment: 24 pages (with annexes), 3 figures (PS). This version contains no major content changes: fixed bibliography & figures, modified acknowledgement

Entropy "floor" and effervescent heating of intracluster gas

Recent X-ray observations of clusters of galaxies have shown that the entropy of the intracluster medium (ICM), even at radii as large as half the virial radius, is higher than that expected from gravitational processes alone. This is thought to be the result of nongravitational processes influencing the physical state of the ICM. In this paper, we investigate whether heating by a central AGN can explain the distribution of excess entropy as a function of radius. The AGN is assumed to inject buoyant bubbles into the ICM, which heat the ambient medium by doing pdV work as they rise and expand. Several authors have suggested that this "effervescent heating" mechanism could allow the central regions of clusters to avoid the ``cooling catastrophe''. Here we study the effect of effervescent heating at large radii. Our calculations show that such a heating mechanism is able to solve the entropy problem. The only free parameters of the model are the time-averaged luminosity and the AGN lifetime. The results are mainly sensitive to the total energy injected into the cluster. Our model predicts that the total energy injected by AGN should be roughly proportional to the cluster mass. The expected correlation is consistent with a linear relation between the mass of the central black hole(s) and the mass of the cluster, which is reminiscent of the Magorrian relation between the black hole and bulge mass.Comment: accepted for Ap