Health, Safety, Environment and Ergonomic Improvement in Energy Sector Using an Integrated Fuzzy Cognitive Map–Bayesian Network Model

© 2018, Taiwan Fuzzy Systems Association and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Health, safety, environment and ergonomics (HSEE) are important factors for any organization. In fact, organizations always have to assess their compliance in these factors to the required benchmarks and take proactive actions to improve them if required. In this paper, we propose a fuzzy cognitive map–Bayesian network (BN) model in order to assist organizations in undertaking this process. The fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) method is used for constructing graphical models of BN to ascertain the relationships between the inputs and the impact which they will have on the quantified HSEE. Using the notion of Fuzzy logic assists us to work with humans and their linguistic inputs in the process of experts’ opinion solicitation. The noisy-OR method and the EM are used to ascertain the conditional probability between the inputs and quantifying the HSEE value. Using this, we find out that the most influential input factor on HSEE quantification which can then be managed for improving an organization’s compliance to HSEE. Finding the same influential input factor in both BN models which are based on the noisy-OR method and EM demonstrate how FCM is useful in constructing a reliable BN model. Leveraging the power of Bayesian network in modelling HSEE and augmenting it with FCM is the main contribution of this research work which opens the new line of research in the area of HSE management

EFFECT OF DIET DILUTION IN THE STARTER PERIOD ON PERFORMANCE AND CARCASS CHARACTERISTICS OF BROILER CHICKS

The effect of energy and protein dilution in the starter period (8 to 14 days) of age, on performance and carcass characteristics of 360 Arian male chicks was studied in a completely randomised design. This experiment consisted of 6 treatments, 4 replicates, with 15 chicks per replicate. In order to dilute the diets six levels (0, 4, 8, 12, 16, and 20) percent of ground wood charcoal was used. Chicks were fed with starter and grower diet from 15 to 21 and 22 to 42 days of age respectively. During the experiment feed intake, body weight gain, feed conversion ratio were measured weekly. Mortality was measured throughout the experiment. At 43 day of age 4 chicks each treatment was selected and carcass characteristics were measured. The results indicated that dilution of diet from 8 to 14 days of age increased feed intake in this period but the differences were not signifi cant. With increasing dilution rate body weight gain of chicks signifi cantly decreased in comparison to control group (P< 0.05). Due to compensatory growth after restricted period, there was not signifi cant difference in body weight among restricted and control groups at 42 days of age. There was not signifi cant difference among the treatments for feed conversion ratio in whole period of the experiment (8 to 42 day). Similarly, there was not signifi cant difference among the treatments for caloric conversion ratio in whole period of the experiment (8 to 42 day). Mortality rate in restricted groups was signifi cantly lower than control group (P<0.05). Diet dilution hadn’t signifi cant effect on carcass, breast meat, drumsticks, thighs, liver, intestine, abdominal fat percentages. The results of the present study indicated that broiler chicks could withstand a 7-day period (from 8 to 14 days) feed restriction with ground wood charcoal in early age without loss in performance

Bayesian model averaging with fixed and flexible priors: theory, concepts, and calibration experiments for rainfall-runoff modeling

This paper introduces for the first time the concept of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) with multiple prior structures, for rainfall‐runoff modeling applications. The original BMA model proposed by Raftery et al. (2005) assumes that the prior probability density function (pdf) is adequately described by a mixture of Gamma and Gaussian distributions. Here we discuss the advantages of using BMA with fixed and flexible prior distributions. Uniform, Binomial, Binomial‐Beta, Benchmark, and Global Empirical Bayes priors along with Informative Prior Inclusion and Combined Prior Probabilities were applied to calibrate daily streamflow records of a coastal plain watershed in the South‐East USA. Various specifications for Zellner's g prior including Hyper, Fixed, and Empirical Bayes Local (EBL) g priors were also employed to account for the sensitivity of BMA and derive the conditional pdf of each constituent ensemble member. These priors were examined using the simulation results of conceptual and semi‐distributed rainfall‐runoff models. The hydrologic simulations were first coupled with a new sensitivity analysis model and a parameter uncertainty algorithm to assess the sensitivity and uncertainty associated with each model. BMA was then used to subsequently combine the simulations of the posterior pdf of each constituent hydrological model. Analysis suggests that a BMA based on combined fixed and flexible priors provides a coherent mechanism and promising results for calculating a weighted posterior probability compared to individual model calibration. Furthermore, the probability of Uniform and Informative Prior Inclusion priors received significantly lower predictive error whereas more uncertainty resulted from a fixed g prior (i.e. EBL)

Influence of soy oil source and supplementation of the diet with vitamin E and vi tamin C on performance and egg quality of Single Comb White Leghourn lyaing hens from forty four to fity six weeks of age

Two experiments (Exp.) were conducted to determine the AME content of refined soybean oil (SO), recycled soybean oil (RSO), and acidulated soybean oil soapstocks (ASO) and the effects of inclusion of vitamin E and vitamin C in diets containing 3.5% of these soy oils on performance and egg quality of Hy-line hens from 44 to 56 wks of age