Modeling and evaluating conditional quantile dynamics in VaR forecasts

We focus on the time-varying modeling of VaR at a given coverage $\tau$, assessing whether the quantiles of the distribution of the returns standardized by their conditional means and standard deviations exhibit predictable dynamics. Models are evaluated via simulation, determining the merits of the asymmetric Mean Absolute Deviation as a loss function to rank forecast performances. The empirical application on the Fama-French 25 value-weighted portfolios with a moving forecast window shows substantial improvements in forecasting conditional quantiles by keeping the predicted quantile unchanged unless the empirical frequency of violations falls outside a data-driven interval around $\tau$.Comment: 37 pages, 5 figures, 8 table

The role of allogeneic stem-cell transplant in myelofibrosis in the era of JAK inhibitors: a case-based review

Allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) is, at present, the only potentially curative therapy for myelofibrosis (MF). Despite many improvements, outcomes of HSCT are still burdened by substantial morbidity and high transplant-related mortality. Allogeneic transplant is generally considered in intermediate-2 and high-risk patients aged <70 years, but the optimal selection of patients and timing of the procedure remains under debate, as does as the role of JAK inhibitors in candidates for HSCT. Starting from a real-life clinical case scenario, herein we examine some of the crucial issues of HSCT for MF in light of recent refinements on MF risk stratification, data on the use of ruxolitinib before and after transplant and findings on the impact of different conditioning regimens and donor selection

Nilotinib: a novel encouraging therapeutic option for chronic myeloid leukemia patients with imatinib resistance or intolerance

Although high rates of complete hematologic and cytogenetic remission have been observed in patients with chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) treated with imatinib, a short duration of response with eventual emergence of imatinib resistance has also been reported in a subset of CML patients. The most frequent clinically relevant mechanisms that change imatinib sensitivity in BCR-ABL-transformed cells are mutations within the Abl kinase domain, affecting several of its properties. Crystal structure analysis of the Abl-imatinib complex has proven helpful in identifying potential critical residues that hinder interactions of imatinib with mutated Abl. This has led to the development of a second generation of targeted therapies such as nilotinib and dasatinib, already in phase II clinical trials or SKI-606 and MK-0457 in phase I trials. In this review, we discuss the activity of nilotinib, developed by Novartis using a rational drug design strategy in which imatinib served as the lead compound. Preliminary studies demonstrated that nilotinib has more efficacy than imatinib in inhibiting proliferation of BCR-ABL-dependent cells, a relatively safety profile and clinical efficacy in all phases of CML

Parenting infants at the times of COVID-19: A cross-sectional study on parental stress in the province of Modena (Northern Italy)

Background and aim of the work: The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic and the consequent measures to prevent virus’s spread particularly affected families with young children, that represent a complex system characterized by a constant interaction between the infant’s and the parent’s well-being. The present study aims to investigate the parenting stress experienced by parents with 6-month-old healthy infants surveyed from September 2019 to April 2021 in the Modena province (Northern Italy). Research design and methods: We carried out a cross-sectional study using the Parenting Stress Index-Short Form (PSI-SF) questionnaire to assess stress levels in the parent-child system. Since the questionnaire is meant to be self-completed by the participant, the survey could continue to be conducted remotely during the pandemic lockdown months. Results: Most parents exhibited physiological stress scores, but parents who have been interviewed during the pandemic period had a higher prevalence of stress problems. Subjects in the COVID group also showed a drop in the defensive response and a lower prevalence of stress problems when parenting siblings. Conclusions: These findings underline the importance of early detection of isolation’s negative effects on households and strengthen the need for tailored familial support during stressful events, in order to pro-mote parent and children’s emotional well-being

Reorganization of Active Surveillance of Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) in Emilia-Romagna, Italy: a two-step Public Health intervention

BACKGROUND AND AIM OF THE WORK: The International Health Regulations Emergency Committee declared in 2014 that poliovirus circulation is a public health emergency of international concern. In 2017 and 2018 Italy was classified at intermediate risk of poliovirus reintroduction based on suboptimal poliovirus surveillance. Acute flaccid paralysis active surveillance is the gold standard in the polio eradication process. The aims of this study were to investigate the causes of reduced acute flaccid paralysis case reporting in Emilia-Romagna in the last few years (step 1) and to study a public health intervention to restore an adequate level of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance in that region (step 2). METHODS: In the first step a context analysis was performed by analysing the 2015-2017 Hospital Discharge Registers in Emilia-Romagna with the ICD-9-CM differential diagnosis codes for acute flaccid paralysis. Data from context analysis was then used to plan a new regional collaborative network of acute flaccid paralysis active surveillance. RESULTS: The active surveillance network was, at the end of the study, composed by 49 doctors from both hospital administrations and clinical wards from 4 University Hospitals and 7 Local Health Authorities throughout the Region. In 15 months, 7 acute flaccid paralysis cases have been reported; 85,7% received a full clinical and virological investigation and 83,3% completed the 60 day's follow-up. The mean response to each e-mail was 48,5% (SD 7,5%). CONCLUSIONS: In 2019, the Emilia-Romagna's active surveillance system reached the sensitivity, completeness of case investigation and follow-up required to achieve the minimum levels for certification standard surveillance

Management of Myelofibrosis during Treatment with Ruxolitinib: A Real-World Perspective in Case of Resistance and/or Intolerance

The development and approval of ruxolitinib, the first JAK1/2 inhibitor indicated to treat myelofibrosis, has improved patient outcomes, with higher spleen and symptoms responses, improved quality of life, and overall survival. Despite this, several unmet needs remain, including the absence of resistance criteria, suboptimal response, the timing of allogeneic transplant, and the management of patients in case of intolerance. Here, we report the results of the second survey led by the “MPN Lab” collaboration, which aimed to report physicians’ perspectives on these topics. As in our first survey, physicians were selected throughout Italy, and we included those with extensive experience in treating myeloproliferative neoplasms and those with less experience representing clinical practice in the real world. The results presented here, summarized using descriptive analyses, highlight the need for a clear definition of response to ruxolitinib as well as recommendations to guide the management of ruxolitinib under specific conditions including anemia, thrombocytopenia, infections, and non-melanoma skin cancers

Immune thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura: Personalized therapy using ADAMTS-13 activity and autoantibodies

Recently, treatment of immune-mediated thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITTP) has changed with the advent of caplacizumab in clinical practice. The International Working Group (IWG) has recently integrated the ADAMTS-13 activity/autoantibody monitoring in consensus outcome definitions. We report three ITTP cases during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, that received a systematic evaluation of ADAMTS-13 activity and autoantibodies. We describe how the introduction of caplacizumab and ADAMTS-13 monitoring could change the management of ITTP patients and discuss whether therapeutic choices should be based on the clinical response alone. ADAMTS-13 activity/antibodies were assessed every 5&nbsp;days. Responses were evaluated according to updated IWG outcome definitions. These kinetics, rather than clinical remission, guided the therapy, allowing early and safe caplacizumab discontinuation and sensible administration of rituximab. Caplacizumab was cautiously discontinued after achieving ADAMTS-13 complete remission. These cases illustrate that prospective ADAMTS-13 evaluation and use of updated IWG definitions may improve real-life patients’ management in the caplacizumab era

Cellular Responses and Tissue Depots for Nanoformulated Antiretroviral Therapy.

Long-acting nanoformulated antiretroviral therapy (nanoART) induces a range of innate immune migratory, phagocytic and secretory cell functions that perpetuate drug depots. While recycling endosomes serve as the macrophage subcellular depots, little is known of the dynamics of nanoART-cell interactions. To this end, we assessed temporal leukocyte responses, drug uptake and distribution following both intraperitoneal and intramuscular injection of nanoformulated atazanavir (nanoATV). Local inflammatory responses heralded drug distribution to peritoneal cell populations, regional lymph nodes, spleen and liver. This proceeded for three days in male Balb/c mice. NanoATV-induced changes in myeloid populations were assessed by fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) with CD45, CD3, CD11b, F4/80, and GR-1 antibodies. The localization of nanoATV within leukocyte cell subsets was determined by confocal microscopy. Combined FACS and ultra-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass-spectrometry assays determined nanoATV carriages by cell-based vehicles. A robust granulocyte, but not peritoneal macrophage nanoATV response paralleled zymosan A treatment. ATV levels were highest at sites of injection in peritoneal or muscle macrophages, dependent on the injection site. The spleen and liver served as nanoATV tissue depots while drug levels in lymph nodes were higher than those recorded in plasma. Dual polymer and cell labeling demonstrated a nearly exclusive drug reservoir in macrophages within the liver and spleen. Overall, nanoART induces innate immune responses coincident with rapid tissue macrophage distribution. Taken together, these works provide avenues for therapeutic development designed towards chemical eradication of human immunodeficiency viral infection

Cellular Responses and Tissue Depots for Nanoformulated Antiretroviral Therapy.

Long-acting nanoformulated antiretroviral therapy (nanoART) induces a range of innate immune migratory, phagocytic and secretory cell functions that perpetuate drug depots. While recycling endosomes serve as the macrophage subcellular depots, little is known of the dynamics of nanoART-cell interactions. To this end, we assessed temporal leukocyte responses, drug uptake and distribution following both intraperitoneal and intramuscular injection of nanoformulated atazanavir (nanoATV). Local inflammatory responses heralded drug distribution to peritoneal cell populations, regional lymph nodes, spleen and liver. This proceeded for three days in male Balb/c mice. NanoATV-induced changes in myeloid populations were assessed by fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) with CD45, CD3, CD11b, F4/80, and GR-1 antibodies. The localization of nanoATV within leukocyte cell subsets was determined by confocal microscopy. Combined FACS and ultra-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass-spectrometry assays determined nanoATV carriages by cell-based vehicles. A robust granulocyte, but not peritoneal macrophage nanoATV response paralleled zymosan A treatment. ATV levels were highest at sites of injection in peritoneal or muscle macrophages, dependent on the injection site. The spleen and liver served as nanoATV tissue depots while drug levels in lymph nodes were higher than those recorded in plasma. Dual polymer and cell labeling demonstrated a nearly exclusive drug reservoir in macrophages within the liver and spleen. Overall, nanoART induces innate immune responses coincident with rapid tissue macrophage distribution. Taken together, these works provide avenues for therapeutic development designed towards chemical eradication of human immunodeficiency viral infection