Spatial analyses for policy evaluation of the rural world: Portuguese agriculture in the last decade

This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of structural land use changes that are occurring in rural environments, by using novel methodologies related to Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The land use change analysis developed in this study is associated with a pre-selected set of policy issues, that is, it offers a retrospective view of the application of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the Portuguese situation. The evaluation of the respective impacts from a spatial perspective raises questions such as: 1) What are the trade-offs of rural activity in different sectors and regions? 2) How do such trade-offs cope with urban proximity?, and 3) Which activities or strategies are best able to balance the needs of rural and urban communities. Methodologically, our work identifies the land use change for the period 1990 – 2000 by comparing the databases CORINE Land Cover 90 and CORINE Land Cover 2000. Further, in order to detect those sectors that, at national or regional level, have taken more advantage of the CAP support, we present a new model, which also takes into account as a major assumption the proximity of rural areas to the nearest towns. The scope of this paper is twofold: addressing a specific problem concerning the effectiveness of the CAP, it develops an extensive empirical and methodological framework able to serve as a model-policy lesson for the rural/agricultural European future