Ozone prediction based on neural networks and Gaussian processes

The urban environment in Slovenia is confronted with the air pollution problem of harmfully high ozone concentrations. In the last two decades the automatic ozone measuring network was extended and now covers regions where the highest values are expected. Due to topographical and climatological conditions and the presence of extensive urban environments, the most critical locations are the ones in the western part of Slovenia. In the city of Nova Gorica a modern automatic urban air pollution measuring station was installed. Measurements at this station clearly showed that ozone is a considerable pollutant there, especially in the summer time. In this work a perceptron neural-network–based model and a Gaussian-process–based model for ozone concentration forecasting for the city of Nova Gorica was developed and evaluated. The methods of feature determination and pattern selection for the model training process are delineated. The shortcomings of the models and possibilities for improvements are discussed with respect to evaluation of the effectiveness of the methods

Re-evaluation of the Lagrangian particle modelling system on an experimental campaign in complex terrain

Slovenian legislation for industrial air pollution control requires efficient modelling systems for small domains over complex topography. To determine the performance and efficiency of the Lagrangian particle modelling system used for this purpose a study was made where a general purpose modelling system designed for local-scale areas was used. The main goal of the study was to evaluate a modelling system of this kind using an operational configuration of both input data and model parameters, choosing a testing period with very complex dispersion conditions. This severe check could help to better understand the general quality that a model can achieve in these conditions giving some idea on how to better evaluate and use some results that seem to be very negative simply looking at some statistical parameter. Data from a three-week experimental campaign performed around the ˇSoˇstanj thermal power plant during the spring of 1991 was used (analyzed) for evaluation. The database covers very high ambient concentrations (due to the absence of desulphurisation plants) over complex terrain. The simulation was performed for the full duration of the campaign and a particular situation during the 1st and the 2nd of April 1991 was used as an example to outline the model behaviour in complex conditions. During this selected sub-period measurements revealed that (measured) wind speeds were very low, wind changed course in all directions rapidly and consequently the plume spread in all directions. A comparison between measured and reconstructed SO2 concentrations was made at the positions of several automatic air quality measuring stations located around the thermal power plant. Standard statistical indexes to evaluate model performances are instead computed at the same positions for the entire period of the experimental campaign. Overall the reconstructed SO2 concentrations were underestimated relative to the measured ones, but all direct air pollution events were reconstructed. Some weaknesses of the model in the correct reconstruction of peak events are explained and a way to better describe them and to enhance statistical indexes is proposed

Repetition Legitimizes:Consistent Behavior as a Signal of Reliability, Trustworthiness, and Competence

Appearing consistent across time is a strong motive guiding individual behavior, but why do consistent appearances matter so much to people? Across three studies, we show that people strategically behave more consistently in public to signal their reliability, trustworthiness, and competence. These signals lead to positive social outcomes like increased cooperation and power to persuade others

Repetition Legitimizes:Consistent Behavior as a Signal of Reliability, Trustworthiness, and Competence

Appearing consistent across time is a strong motive guiding individual behavior, but why do consistent appearances matter so much to people? Across three studies, we show that people strategically behave more consistently in public to signal their reliability, trustworthiness, and competence. These signals lead to positive social outcomes like increased cooperation and power to persuade others

A Variational Loop Shrinking Analogy for Handle and Tunnel Detection and {Reeb} Graph Construction on Surfaces

The humble loop shrinking property played a central role in the inception of modern topology but it has been eclipsed by more abstract algebraic formalism. This is particularly true in the context of detecting relevant non-contractible loops on surfaces where elaborate homological and/or graph theoretical constructs are favored in algorithmic solutions. In this work, we devise a variational analogy to the loop shrinking property and show that it yields a simple, intuitive, yet powerful solution allowing a streamlined treatment of the problem of handle and tunnel loop detection. Our formalization tracks the evolution of a diffusion front randomly initiated on a single location on the surface. Capitalizing on a diffuse interface representation combined with a set of rules for concurrent front interactions, we develop a dynamic data structure for tracking the evolution on the surface encoded as a sparse matrix which serves for performing both diffusion numerics and loop detection and acts as the workhorse of our fully parallel implementation. The substantiated results suggest our approach outperforms state of the art and robustly copes with highly detailed geometric models. As a byproduct, our approach can be used to construct Reeb graphs by diffusion thus avoiding commonly encountered issues when using Morse functions

Syndecan-2 is a novel target of insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 and is over-expressed in fibrosis

Extracellular matrix deposition and tissue scarring characterize the process of fibrosis. Transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ) and Insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) have been implicated in the pathogenesis of fibrosis in various tissues by inducing mesenchymal cell proliferation and extracellular matrix deposition. We identified Syndecan-2 (SDC2) as a gene induced by TGFβ in an IGFBP-3-dependent manner. TGFβ induction of SDC2 mRNA and protein required IGFBP-3. IGFBP-3 independently induced production of SDC2 in primary fibroblasts. Using an ex-vivo model of human skin in organ culture expressing IGFBP-3, we demonstrate that IGFBP-3 induces SDC2 ex vivo in human tissue. We also identified Mitogen-activated protein kinase-interacting kinase (Mknk2) as a gene induced by IGFBP-3. IGFBP-3 triggered Mknk2 phosphorylation resulting in its activation. Mknk2 independently induced SDC2 in human skin. Since IGFBP-3 is over-expressed in fibrotic tissues, we examined SDC2 levels in skin and lung tissues of patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) and lung tissues of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). SDC2 levels were increased in fibrotic dermal and lung tissues of patients with SSc and in lung tissues of patients with IPF. This is the first report describing elevated levels of SDC2 in fibrosis. Increased SDC2 expression is due, at least in part, to the activity of two pro-fibrotic factors, TGFβ and IGFBP-3. © 2012 Ruiz et al

Releasing the brake:How disinhibition frees people and facilitates social change

Following recent online movements (e.g. #BlackLivesMatter), online platforms became widely regarded as catalysts of social change since they allow social agents to mobilize vast audiences. However, we argue that their role as catalysts spans further. Disinhibition provoked by increased anonymity online liberates individuals from their own behavioural constraints (i.e. need for consistency) and from others’ perceptions (i.e. need to be perceived favourably), enabling a freer expression of dissent at the individual level, which can accelerate change at the societal level.We tested our hypothesis with an experimental paradigm and accompanying agent-based simulations. The paradigm was a multi-round group game with a between-group anonymity manipulation. Participants were tasked with reaching a consensus and incentivised for change-stimulating and change-inhibiting behaviours (i.e. coordination, consistency, conformity), while confederates acted as minorities overthrowing the status quo. The agent-based model contained an agent-level social payoff function with components resembling paradigm-induced motivations, wherein anonymity was manipulated by varying their relative weights.Our experimental study (n=56 participants, 6 groups) reveals that individuals change their stances faster in anonymous settings. Applying this insight at a larger scale, the agent-based simulations demonstrate that anonymity allows societies to adopt innovations quicker, reach tipping points more easily, and can thus facilitate social change