A New World Order: Explaining the Emergence of the Classical Gold Standard

The classical gold standard only gradually became an international monetary regime after 1870. This paper provides a cross-country analysis of why countries adopted when they did. I use duration analysis to show that network externalities operating through trade channels help explain the pattern of diffusion of the gold standard. Countries adopted the gold standard sooner when they had a large share of trade with other gold countries relative to GDP. The quality of the financial system also played a role. Support is found for the idea that a weak gold backing for paper currency emissions, possibly because of an unsustainable fiscal position or an un-sound banking system, delayed adoption. A large public debt burden also led to a later transition. Data are also consistent with the idea that nations adopted the gold standard earlier to lower the costs of borrowing on international capital markets. I find no evidence that the level of exchange rate volatility or agricultural interests mattered for the timing of adoption.

Isospin Splitting in the Pion-Nucleon Couplings from QCD Sum Rules

We use QCD sum rules for the three point function of a pseudoscalar and two nucleonic currents in order to estimate the charge dependence of the pion nucleon coupling constant coming from isospin violation in the strong interaction. The effect can be attributed primarily to the difference of the quark condensates and . Assuming that the pi0 is a pure isostate we obtain for the splitting between the coupling of proton and neutron to the neutral pion an interval of [0.008 ; 0.023], the uncertainties coming mainly from the input parameters. In order to obtain the coupling to a physical pi0 we have to take pi - eta mixing into account leading to an interval of [0.012 ; 0.037]. The charged pion nucleon coupling is found to be the average of the two neutral ones. Electromagnetic effects are not included.Comment: contributed talk at CIPANP97 (Big Sky, Montana); 3 pages (aipproc.sty), no figure

Why Do Countries Peg the Way They Peg? The Determinants of Anchor Currency Choice

Conditional on choosing a pegged exchange rate regime, what determines the currency to which countries peg or “anchor” their exchange rate? This paper aims to answer this question using a panel multinomial logit framework, covering more than 100 countries for the period 1980-1998. We find that trade network externalities are a key determinant of anchor currency choice, implying that there are multiple steady states for the distribution of anchor currencies in the international monetary system. Other factors found to be related to anchor currency choice include the symmetry of output co-movement, the currency denomination of debt, and legal or colonial origins

Marine mammal tourism in the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand : effects, implications and management : a thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Marine Ecology at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand

Worldwide expansion of marine mammal tourism over recent decades has raised international concerns in terms of the effects of these tourism practices on the species they target. Moreover, the growth and success of the industry have often outpaced conservation planning, including in New Zealand. To illustrate, tour vessels have been operating for ca. 25 years in the Bay of Plenty (BOP), situated on the east coast of North Island, New Zealand. By 2010, a total of eight permits had been granted across the region. However, development of this local industry occurred without any baseline data on species occurrence, distribution, habitat use or behaviour. This study sought to assess the historical occurrence of the marine mammal species off the BOP and determine their spatial and temporal distribution. Current distribution, density and group dynamics were examined for common dolphins (Delphinus sp.) and New Zealand fur seals (Arctocephalus forsteri), the two most frequently encountered species in the BOP and therefore, the primarily targeted species by tour operators. The extent of anthropogenic interactions with common dolphins was investigated and their effects on dolphin behaviour examined. The number of common dolphin individuals closely interacting with tour vessels was estimated and dolphin-vessel interactions were quantified to assess repetitive encounters. In the absence of previously undertaken systematic dedicated surveys, the present study investigated the historical spatial and temporal occurrence of dolphins, whales and pinnipeds in the BOP region. The examination of opportunistic data, collected between December 2000 and November 2010 via various platforms of opportunity including but not limited to tour vessels, identified fourteen species of dolphins, whales and pinnipeds occurring in the region. Confidence criteria in successful species identification were assigned based on observer expertise, diagnostic features of reported species and percentage of records reported by observer type. Common dolphins were the most frequently encountered species, followed by killer whales (Orcinus orca), bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) and New Zealand fur seals, other species being infrequently encountered. A detailed examination of common dolphin habitat use revealed discrepancies with previous findings (e.g. higher use of shallower waters), possibly explained by inherent biases to the opportunistic dataset. Dedicated surveys, conducted between November 2010 and May 2013, investigated the current distribution, density and habitat use of common dolphins and New Zealand fur seals. Both species exhibited a strong seasonality with contrasting occurrence in summer and autumn for common dolphins and in winter and spring for fur seals. Dolphin seasonality is suggested to be linked to movements into deeper offshore waters and/or potentially to neighbouring regions (i.e. the Hauraki Gulf) and most likely related to foraging opportunities. Fur seal seasonality suggests that the western BOP supports a non-breeding colony and that foraging reasons may explain the species occurrence in the region. Higher density of common dolphins and fur seals identified over the shelf break and reefs can be explained by enhanced productivity. First application of Markov chain analyses to common dolphin within oceanic waters, allowed examination of the effects of tourism activities on common dolphins in the BOP. Dolphin foraging behaviour was significantly affected, as dolphins spent less time foraging during interactions with tour vessels and took longer to return to foraging once disrupted by vessel presence. Disruption to feeding may be particularly detrimental to common dolphins in the BOP open oceanic habitat, where prey resources are typically widely dispersed and unpredictable. While the overall level of tour operator compliance with regulations in the bay was relatively high, non-compliance was recorded with regards to swimming with calves and extended time interacting with dolphins. Evidence of repetitive interactions between tour vessels and common dolphins were examined using photo-identification to assess potential cumulative impacts. An estimated minimum of 1,278 common dolphin individuals were identified in the region, for which the majority (86.9%) showed low levels of site fidelity (i.e. only one encounter). At least 61.7% of identified dolphins were exposed to tour vessel interactions. However, spatial (i.e. between the western and eastern sub-regions) and temporal (i.e. daily, seasonal and annual) cumulative exposure to tourism activities was observed for less than 10% of these individuals. This is likely explained by tour operators “handing over” groups or returning to areas preferentially frequented by dolphins (i.e. presumed foraging hotspots). Due to the opportunistic methods used for photo-identification, these results are indicative only of the absolute minimum of repeated interactions common dolphins may face in the region. The present thesis represents the first comprehensive assessment of marine mammal tourism in the BOP. It offers important contributions to research and conservation in this area via the critical assessment of historical occurrence of marine mammals in the region. This thesis also provides comprehensive and detailed insights into common dolphin and New Zealand fur seal temporal and spatial distribution in the area. This can serve management agencies to implement efficient conservation plans. While identifying that tourism operations significantly affect common dolphin behaviour and repetitive interactions result in cumulative exposure, this thesis supports adaptive management and further long-term monitoring of marine mammal species in general, and in the BOP region more specifically

Generalized transverse momentum dependent parton distributions of the nucleon

We present first results from our analysis of the most general quark-quark correlator of the nucleon, which can be parameterized in terms of so-called generalized transverse momentum dependent parton distributions. These results include the first complete parameterization of the nucleon GPDs and TMDs to all twists as well as new results on possible nontrivial relations between them.Comment: 4 pages; talk given by S. Meissner at the 16th International Workshop on Deep-Inelastic Scattering and Related Subjects (DIS 2008), London, UK, April 7 - 11, 200

The role of clathrin in post-golgi trafficking in toxoplasma gondii

Apicomplexan parasites are single eukaryotic cells with a highly polarised secretory system that contains unique secretory organelles (micronemes and rhoptries) that are required for host cell invasion. In contrast, the role of the endosomal system is poorly understood in these parasites. With many typical endocytic factors missing, we speculated that endocytosis depends exclusively on a clathrin-mediated mechanism. Intriguingly, in Toxoplasma gondii we were only able to observe the endogenous clathrin heavy chain 1 (CHC1) at the Golgi, but not at the parasite surface. For the functional characterisation of Toxoplasma gondii CHC1 we generated parasite mutants conditionally expressing the dominant negative clathrin Hub fragment and demonstrate that CHC1 is essential for vesicle formation at the trans-Golgi network. Consequently, the functional ablation of CHC1 results in Golgi aberrations, a block in the biogenesis of the unique secretory microneme and rhoptry organelles, and of the pellicle. However, we found no morphological evidence for clathrin mediating endocytosis in these parasites and speculate that they remodelled their vesicular trafficking system to adapt to an intracellular lifestyle

EVOLUTION OF A STRING NETWORK IN BACKGROUNDS WITH ROLLING HORIZONS

We discuss the temporal variation of the equation of state of a classical string network, evolving in a background in which the Hubble radius 1/H shrinks to a minimum and then re-expands to infinity. We also present a method to look for self-consistent non-vacuum string backgrounds, correponding to the simultaneous solution of the gravi-dilaton backgrounds equations and of the string equations of motion.Comment: 19 pages, plain tex, no figures, to appear in "String gravity and physics at the Planck energy scale" (World Scientific, Singapore, 1995

Does Inequality Lead to a Financial Crisis?

The recent global crisis has sparked interest in the relationship between income inequality, credit booms, and financial crises. Rajan (2010) and Kumhof and Rancière (2011) propose that rising inequality led to a credit boom and eventually to a financial crisis in the US in the first decade of the 21st century as it did in the 1920s. Data from 14 advanced countries between 1920 and 2000 suggest these are not general relationships. Credit booms heighten the probability of a banking crisis, but we find no evidence that a rise in top income shares leads to credit booms. Instead, low interest rates and economic expansions are the only two robust determinants of credit booms in our data set. Anecdotal evidence from US experience in the 1920s and in the years up to 2007 and from other countries does not support the inequality, credit, crisis nexus. Rather, it points back to a familiar boom-bust pattern of declines in interest rates, strong growth, rising credit, asset price booms and crises.

The Role of Foreign Currency Debt in Financial Crises: 1880-1913 vs. 1972-1997

What is the role of foreign currency debt in precipitating financial crises? In this paper we compare the 1880 to 1913 period to recent experience. We examine debt crises, currency crises, banking crises and the interrelation between these varieties of crises. We pay special attention to the role of hard currency debt, currency mismatches and debt intolerance. We find fairly robust evidence that high exposure to foreign currency debt does not necessarily lead to a high chance of having a debt crisis, currency crisis, or a banking crisis. A key finding is some countries do not suffer from great financial fragility despite high exposure to original sin. In the nineteenth century, the British offshoots and Scandinavia generally avoided severe financial meltdowns while today many advanced countries have high original sin but have had few financial crises. The common denominator in both periods is that currency mismatches matter. A strong reserve position or high exports relative to hard currency liabilities helps decrease the likelihood of a debt crisis, currency crisis or a banking crisis. This strengthens the evidence for the hypothesis that foreign currency debt is dangerous when mis-managed. We discuss the robustness of these results and make some general comparisons based on this evidence from over 60 years of intense international capital market integration.