Tracking the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with a time-varying SIR model

The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model offers the simplest framework to study transmission dynamics of COVID-19, however, it does not factor in its early depleting trend observed during a lockdown. We modified the SIR model to specifically simulate the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to better predict its temporal trend in Malaysia. The classical SIR model was fitted to observed total (I total), active (I) and removed (R) cases of COVID-19 before lockdown to estimate the basic reproduction number. Next, the model was modified with a partial time-varying force of infection, given by a proportionally depleting transmission coefficient, βt and a fractional term, z. The modified SIR model was then fitted to observed data over 6 weeks during the lockdown. Model fitting and projection were validated using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). The transmission dynamics of COVID-19 was interrupted immediately by the lockdown. The modified SIR model projected the depleting temporal trends with lowest MAPE for I total, followed by I, I daily and R. During lockdown, the dynamics of COVID-19 depleted at a rate of 4.7% each day with a decreased capacity of 40%. For 7-day and 14-day projections, the modified SIR model accurately predicted I total, I and R. The depleting transmission dynamics for COVID-19 during lockdown can be accurately captured by time-varying SIR model. Projection generated based on observed data is useful for future planning and control of COVID-19

Quality of life in transfusion-dependent thalassaemia patients on desferrioxamine treatment

Optimum desferrioxamine usage reduces iron overload complications and provides a better quality of life

Relative proteome quantification of alpha, beta, gamma and delta globin chains in early eluting peaks of Bio-Rad variant II® CE-HPLC of hemoglobin from healthy and beta-thalassemia subjects in Malaysia

This is the first report of QQQ-mass spectrometric identification and quantification of the Hb subunits, alpha, beta, delta and gamma globin peptides, derived from enzymatic-digestion of proteins in the early unknown peaks of the Bio-Rad cation-exchange chromatography of haemoglobin. The objectives were to assess the relationship of the quantity of the free alpha, beta, delta and gamma globin chains with the phenotypic diversity of beta-thalassaemias (β-thal). The results demonstrate that the pools of free globin chains in red blood cells were correlating with the severity of the disease in patients with different phenotypes of β-thal. The mechanism and the regulation of synthesis of free globin chains pool in a normal individual and in patients with different β-thal phenotypes could arise from several mechanisms which will require further investigation. The role of the free globin pool in patients with β-thal for development of novel therapeutic approaches based on these potential targets requires further investigation. Pertinent biomarkers improves the diagnosis of the β-thal, especially in low-income countries where they are most common and allows more effective therapeutic intervention leading to more successful therapeutic outcome. Keywords: Anaemia, Thalassemia, Mass spectrometry, Globin chain, Quantification, HPLC, Unknown peak

PICK-ing Malaysia’s Epidemic Apart: Effectiveness of a Diverse COVID-19 Vaccine Portfolio

Malaysia rolled out a diverse portfolio of predominantly three COVID-19 vaccines (AZD1222, BNT162b2, and CoronaVac) beginning 24 February 2021. We evaluated vaccine effectiveness with two methods, covering 1 April to 15 September 2021: (1) the screening method for COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and symptomatic COVID-19; and (2) a retrospective cohort of confirmed COVID-19 cases for COVID-19 related ICU admission and death using logistic regression. The screening method estimated partial vaccination to be 48.8% effective (95% CI: 46.8, 50.7) against COVID-19 infection and 33.5% effective (95% CI: 31.6, 35.5) against symptomatic COVID-19. Full vaccination is estimated at 87.8% effective (95% CI: 85.8, 89.7) against COVID-19 infection and 85.4% effective (95% CI: 83.4, 87.3) against symptomatic COVID-19. Among the cohort of confirmed COVID-19 cases, partial vaccination with any of the three vaccines is estimated at 31.3% effective (95% CI: 28.5, 34.1) in preventing ICU admission, and 45.1% effective (95% CI: 42.6, 47.5) in preventing death. Full vaccination with any of the three vaccines is estimated at 79.1% effective (95% CI: 77.7, 80.4) in preventing ICU admission and 86.7% effective (95% CI: 85.7, 87.6) in preventing deaths. Our findings suggest that full vaccination with any of the three predominant vaccines (AZD1222, BNT162b2, and CoronaVac) in Malaysia has been highly effective in preventing COVID-19 infection, symptomatic COVID-19, COVID-19-related ICU admission, and death