Asymmetric preference formation in willingness to pay estimates in discrete choice models

Individuals when faced with choices amongst a number of alternatives often adopt a variety of processing rules, ranging from simple linear to complex non-linear treatment of each attribute defining the offer of each alternative. In this paper we investigate the presence of asymmetry in preferences to test for reference effects and differential willingness to pay according to whether we are valuing gains or losses. The findings offer clear evidence of an asymmetrical response to increases and decreases in attributes when compared to the corresponding values for a reference alternative, where the degree of asymmetry varies across attributes and population segments

Behavioural responses of freight transporters and shippers to road user charging schemes: An empirical assessment

Heavy goods vehicles not only have a non-marginal impact on the performance of the road network in terms of traffic congestion, exposure to risk and accidents, they also provide an essential service in the distribution chain. Both sellers and purchasers of goods rely on an efficient transport system to ensure that goods are available at a time and location that meets the demands of end users. As congestion on the road network grows, especially in urban areas, the calls for ‘solutions’ increase. Although many of the suggestions to resolve delays due to traffic avoid the call for reform of road pricing, there is a growing recognition that user charges have to be more closely aligned to user cost and user benefit. Aiding this call is a technological capability now in place to facilitate a fine tuning of variable users charges that is inter-operable across networks and almost seamless to the customer. The major challenge we face is behavioural – a need to understand more fully the role that specific charging regimes might play in the distribution of freight and who in the supply chain is affected by specific charges in terms of willingness to pay for the gains in network efficiency. This chapter investigates the potential influence of variable user charges, relative to fuel prices (the current main source of charging), in the freight distribution chain. A choice modelling framework is presented that identifies potential responses from the freight distribution sector to variable user charging within the context of the wider spectrum of costs imposed on the sector, as well as the potential benefits (e.g. time savings) from alternative pricing regimes. We highlight the role that agents in the distribution chain play in influencing sensitivity to variable user charges

Work Trip Characteristics Folowing the Gulf Crisis: The Experience in Amman, Jordan

This paper investigates the home to work trip characteristics following the Gulf crisis and the huge influx of Gulf returnees (mainly from Kuwait). These characteristics are measured through specifying and estimating three disaggregate models. These models represent the commuters' home to work trip duration, the frequency increase with which commuters arrived late at work, and the delay duration increase following the Gulf crisis. The specified models were estimated through the use of a random commuter survey carried out in Amman, Jordan's capital. The results show that, on average, commuters now arrive late at work three times a week compared with about once a week before the crisis. Furthermore, there is a clear shift in commuters' departure time. More commuters are departing earlier now (following the crisis) to compensate for the effect of traffic congestion. This clearly demonstrate the impact of the Gulf crisis and inability of the current transportation services to handle the new demand. Estimation results clearly suggest that commuters' household location, home to work mode choice, home departure time, work location, and the socioeconomic characteristics influence greatly the home to work trip characteristics. Elasticity estimates show that only the work trip length has an elasticity greater than one. Thus, the likelihood of arriving late at work and the delay duration are dominated by the level of congestion faced by commuters

Demand for taxi services: New elasticity evidence for a neglected mode

This paper investigates the factors that influence the choice of, and hence demand for taxis services, a relatively neglected mode in the urban travel task. Given the importance of positioning preferences for taxi services within the broader set of modal options, we develop a modal choice model for all available modes of transport for trips undertaken by individuals or groups of individuals in a number of market segments. A sample of recent trips in Melbourne in 2012 was used to develop segmentspecific mode choice models to obtain direct (and cross) elasticities of interest for cost and service level attributes. Given the nonlinear functional form of the way attributes of interest are included in the modal choice models, a simple set of mean elasticity estimates are not behaviourally meaningful; hence a decision support system is developed to enable the calculation of mean elasticity estimates under specific future service and pricing levels. Some specific direct elasticity estimates are provided as the basis of illustrating the magnitudes of elasticity estimates under likely policy settings

Distributed Work and Travel Behaviour: The Dynamics of Interactive Agency Choices between Employers and Employees

This paper develops a framework within which multiple agents make discrete choices in respect of a common objective - the determination of participation in distributed work, especially the opportunities and constraints associated with telecommuting. Ideas in discrete choice theory and game theory are combined to define a set of choice experiments in which employees and employers interact in arriving at a choice path in a distributed work context. A stated choice experiment with offers and feedback, known as an interactive agency choice experiment (IACE), is empirically investigated in the context of telecommuting options with an exploratory sample of employees and employers in Sydney, Australia. The approach highlights the role of information and negotiation in breaking down the barriers to more flexible work activity, to deliver potential benefits to the transport system such as reduced traffic congestion and environmental sustainability. The paper identifies the types of incentives that an employee/er has to offer the employer/employee in securing effective telecommuting

Power, concession and cooperation in freight distribution chains subject to distance-based user charges

Freight transport plays an important role within the functions of the road network, yet little is understood about the potential impacts of some travel demand management strategies on freight transport activity. This arises, in part, due to the interdependent nature of decision making within supply chains. To contribute to this shortcoming, this paper offers empirical results from a method designed to estimate attribute-specific measures of relative influence within decision making groups. A choice modelling framework is utilised to consider the relative concession decision makers are willing to make toward the preferences of other group members when attempting to reach group choice equilibrium. The estimated influence measures highlight the relative power each type of decision maker holds with respect to each attribute within the candidate alternatives from which to choose. The alternatives represent supply chain strategies for adjusting to a hypothetical distancebased road user charging system in Sydney, Australia. The measures can be utilised in subsequent transport distribution models to account for the impact each decision maker may have on the decisions made at the group (i.e., supply chain) level in response to a given policy. The results are also useful in gaining a greater normative understanding of the decision-making dynamics within transporter-shipper dyads

Extending stated choice analysis to recognise agentspecific attribute endogeneity in bilateral group negotiation and choice: A think piece

This paper is a think piece on variations in the structure of stated preference studies when modelling the joint preferences of interacting agents who have the power to influence the attribute levels on offer. The approach proposed is an extension of standard stated choice methods. Known as ‘stated endogenous attribute level’ (SEAL) analysis, it allows for interactive agents to adjust attribute levels off a base stated choice specification that are within their control, in an effort to reach agreement in an experimental setting. This accomplishes three goals: (1) the ability to place respondents in an environment that more closely matches interactive settings in which some attribute levels are endogenous to a specific agent, should the modeller wish to capture such behaviour; (2) the improved ability of the modeller to capture the behaviour in such settings, including a greater wealth of information on the related interaction processes, rather than simply outcomes; and (3) the expansion of the set of situations that the modeller can investigate using experimental data

Logistics challenges for China: drivers of the logistics industry growth, and bottlenecks constraining development

In the last two decades, the Chinese economy has witnessed extraordinary growth. China is not only the world’s manufacturing centre and major market, but also an engine for the world’s economic growth. Within this context, China’s transport and logistics industry, as the lifeblood of its economic growth, is attracting increasing attention from industry practitioners and researchers. Given the importance of this sector, understanding industry developments and likely trends over the next few years is a valuable exercise, highlighting the key factors driving such growth, as well as the bottlenecks challenging the transport and logistics industry. This paper reviews the current status of the Chinese transport and logistics industry, analyses industry trends and potential factors driving the industry’s ongoing development including the challenges obstructing growth. China’s extraordinary economic growth, particularly the emerging e-commerce market in China, exposes a number of weaknesses that the Chinese logistics industry is currently not well prepared to adapt to

Petrol consumption and emissions from automobiles: Can policies make a difference?

The use of fossil fuels in transportation has increasingly become an important topic as a result of growing concerns over global warming. Automobile petrol demand has been of particular interest to researchers and policy makers, given that the automobile is considered to be a major contributor to the enhanced greenhouse effect. This paper seeks to predict Australia’s automobile petrol demand up to the year 2020 based on the best performing forecasting model selected out of eight models. In order to establish ways to reduce emissions for cars, we estimated the impact on CO2 for several potential policy instruments, using TRESIS 1.4 (an integrated transport, land use and environmental strategy impact simulation program)

Understanding the relationship between voting preferences for public transport and perceptions and preferences for bus rapid transit versus light rail

Despite the plea for a rational debate on the role of alternative public transport modes, there is often great resistance to some options on essentially ideological and emotional grounds. The aim of this paper is to understand the key perceived barriers that mitigate against support for BRT in the presence of LRT options, and the way in which these differ between users and non users of public transport. We develop best-worst preference experiments, one associated with design characteristics, and the other with service descriptions associated with BRT and LRT, and an experiment that focuses on voting preferences. The main focus of this paper is establishing a mapping between the voting preference evidence and the relative support for bus (BRT) and LRT. A survey of residents of six capital cities in Australia provides the empirical context