Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerabilit

Assessing stakeholder needs for adaptation tracking

Faced with the increasing and irreversible impacts of climate change, a growing number of public and private stakeholders across vulnerable sectors are engaging in adaptation efforts. However, our knowledge is limited regarding the types of information being demanded in order to track adaptation progress nationally. To address this gap, we conducted a needs assessment of 191 public and private stakeholder organizations. Stakeholder needs are classified into fourteen themes, encompassing measurements in implementation, outcome and learning, data availability and methods, and crosscutting aspects. With approximately half of organizations surveyed expressing a need for adaptation tracking, we conclude that there is significant demand for: 1) translating climate risk data into impacts and damage costs; 2) monitoring institutional and policy coordination and coherence; and 3) evaluating adaptation outputs and outcomes to inform decision-making

Tracking global climate change adaptation among governments

The Paris Agreement and Katowice Climate Package articulate a clear mandate for all parties to undertake and document adaptation progress. Yet persistent challenges have prevented substantive developments in tracking adaptation and the assessment of adaptation actions and their outcomes. Here, we provide an overview of the challenges of adaptation tracking and propose a comprehensive conceptual framework for assessing adaptation progress by governments that is scalable over time and across contexts. The framework addresses the core components of adaptation assessment (vulnerability, goals and targets, adaptation efforts, and adaptation results) and characterizes subcomponents focused on adaptation effort (leadership, organizations and policy). In particular, we highlight how critical insights can be uncovered by systematically tracking policy efforts over time, and discusses novel approaches to data collection.</p

Twenty priorities for future social-ecological research on climate resilience

Faced with the global climate crisis and the inevitability of future climate shocks, enhancing social-ecological resilience has become an urgent area for research and policy internationally. Research to better understand the impacts of, and response to, climate shocks is critical to improve the resilience and well-being of affected people and places. This paper builds on the findings of a focus collection on this topic to provide a concluding and forward-looking perspective on the future of social-ecological research on climate resilience. Drawing on an expert workshop to identify research gaps, we distinguish 20 priorities for future research on climate resilience. These span four key themes: Systems and Scales, Governance and Knowledge, Climate Resilience and Development, and Sectoral Concerns. Given the need and urgency for evidence-based policies to address the climate crisis, the analysis considers the importance of understanding how findings on social-ecological resilience are used in policy, rather than solely focusing on how it is generated. Many of the priorities emphasise the governance systems within which climate research is produced, understood and used. We further reflect on the state of current evidence generation processes, emphasising that the involvement of a wider range of voices in the design, implementation and dissemination of climate resilience research is critical to developing the efficient and fair interventions it is meant to support