Forecasting binary longitudinal data by a functional PC-ARIMA model

In order to forecast time evolution of a binary response variable from a related continuous time series a functional logit model is proposed. The estimation of this model from discrete time observations of the predictor is solved by using functional principal component analysis and ARIMA modelling of the associated discrete time series of principal components. The proposed model is applied to forecast the risk of drought from El Niño phenomenon.Projects MTM2007-63793 from Dirección General de Investigación, Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, Spain and P06-FQM-01470 from Consejería de Innovación Ciencia y Empresa, Junta de Andalucía, Spai

Stepwise selection of functional covariates in forecasting peak levels of olive pollen

High levels of airborne olive pollen represent a problem for a large proportion of the population because of the many allergies it causes. Many attempts have been made to forecast the concentration of airborne olive pollen, using methods such as time series, linear regression, neural networks, a combination of fuzzy systems and neural networks, and functional models. This paper presents a functional logistic regression model used to study the relationship between olive pollen concentration and different climatic factors, and on this basis to predict the probability of high (and possibly extreme) levels of airborne pollen, selecting the best subset of functional climatic variables by means of a stepwise method based on the conditional likelihood ratio test.Projects MTM2010-20502 from Dirección General de Investigación del MEC, Spain and FQM-307 from Consejería de Innovación, Ciencia y Empresa de la Junta de Andalucía Spai

Before and after EEES spirit in biometrics for pharmacy

Biometría es una asignatura troncal de primer curso del grado de Farmacia. Últimamente, los profesores tratan de adaptarla al espíritu del EEES. El mayor esfuerzo se enfoca hacia el desarrollo de la capacidad de auto-crítica, auto-aprendizaje y de una evaluación adecuada. Algunos métodos tradicionales ya lo pretendían, como la provisión de resúmenes teóricos, la discusión de problemas matemáticos del ámbito farmacéutico dados de antemano o el uso de un paquete informático estadístico. Además, actualmente los alumnos tienen acceso a una página web de la asignatura con esos materiales junto con ejemplos resueltos, presentaciones, etc. La mayor novedad es un curso inicial para repasar conceptos básicos previos y el acceso a tests de autoevaluación a lo largo del curso. La evaluación consistía en un examen final y ahora de cuatro exámenes cortos, otro de las capacidades de uso del paquete estadístico y uno final. El estudio estadístico de las calificaciones desde 2003 hasta 2008 muestran que: 1. Los turnos de la mañana y la tarde son comparables. 2. Las calificaciones de junio y septiembre no son comparables. 3. Las calificaciones son siempre bajas. 4. Las calificaciones son similares para ambos estilos de enseñanza. Por tanto, debemos reflexionar acerca de los resultados. Estudiando lo obtenido tras una encuesta a alumnos y profesores, concluimos lo siguiente: es necesario una mejora en los conocimientos previos de los alumnos, animar a alumnos y profesores a romper con la antigua forma de aprender y la disminución del ratio de alumnos por clase.Biometrics is a mandatory subject in the first course of the Pharmacy degree. In the last few years, its professors try to adapt it to the EEES spirit. The biggest effort is focused on developing the self-criticisim, self-learning competences and a suitable evaluation method. Some of the traditional teaching methods already aimed that, such us providing theory summaries and discussions about mathematical problems within the pharmacy framework proposed in advanced and the use of a statistical package. Nowadays, besides that, the students have a subject web page with the summaries, problems, solved examples, slide presentations, etc. The biggest novelties are an initial course to review preliminary basic concepts and self-evaluation multiple-choice tests provided along the whole term. The evaluation changed from one final exam to four short ones, an exam of their skills at using the statistics package and a final exam.The statistical analysis of the final marks from the 2003 to 2008 shows that: 1. Morning and afternoon shifts are comparable. 2. June and September marks are not comparable. 3. Final marks are always low. 4. Final marks are similar for both teaching styles. Therefore, we should reflect on the results carefully. Having studied the data of a survey among professors and students, we come to the following conclusions: it is necessary to ask for higher student’s knowledge basis, to encourage them and professors to break the chains of old ways of learning and to ask for a decrease in the ratio of students per class.Este trabajo ha sido parcialmente apoyado por los proyectos MTM2007-63793 del Plan Nacional I+D+I, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, y FQM-307 de la Consejería de Innovación de la Junta de Andalucía

Mujeres y liderazgo político en la Península Ibérica y Italia

This article analyzes the image that the media offer about women who currently practice politics as a profession, focusing the field of study on Portugal, Spain and Italy. The work´s starting point is the inequality of treatment by sex, patented in different studies, together with a contextualization about the women´s participation women from those countries in political life throughout history, which in turn is framed in a more generic view of women and politics in Europe. It analyzes media´ strategies in relation to gender roles, biases and underlying stereotypes, as well as the use of language as a tool for constructing discourse around these issues. The conclusions are the survival of inequality and the obstacles that the fact of being a woman supposes for the exercise of politics both in the public sphere and within the organizations themselve

Anticipated and Adaptive Prediction in Functional Discriminant Analysis

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Discussion of different logistic models with functional data. Application to Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

The relationship between time evolution of stress and flares in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus patients has recently been studied. Daily stress data can be considered as observations of a single variable for a subject, carried out repeatedly at different time points (functional data). In this study, we propose a functional logistic regression model with the aim of predicting the probability of lupus flare (binary response variable) from a functional predictor variable (stress level). This method differs from the classical approach, in which longitudinal data are considered as observations of different correlated variables. The estimation of this functional model may be inaccurate due to multicollinearity, and so a principal component based solution is proposed. In addition, a new interpretation is made of the parameter function of the model, which enables the relationship between the response and the predictor variables to be evaluated. Finally, the results provided by different logit approaches (functional and longitudinal) are compared, using a sample of Lupus patients.