DYNAMIC BALANCE SHEET MODEL WITH LIQUIDITY RISK

Theoretically optimal responses of banks to various liquidity and solvency shocks are modelled. The proposed framework is based on a risk-adjusted return portfolio choice in multiple periods subject to the default risk related either to liquidity or solvency problems. Performance of the model and sensitivity of optimal balance sheet structures to some key parameters of the model are illustrated in a specific calibrated setup. The results of the simulations shed light on the effectiveness of the liquidity and solvency regulation. The flexible implementation of the model and its semi-analytical solvability allows for various easy applications of the framework for the macro-prudential policy analysis

MZE: a small macro-model for the euro area

This paper describes a small macro-model for the euro area. It has been built using Eurostat quarterly data and is aimed at improving the current tools used for forecasting and analysing the economy of the area. Some key data, such as capital stock or households disposable income, have been constructed beforehand by using partial data given by Eurostat. The model mingles short run Keynesian dynamics with a consistent neo-classical supply side. In the current version, potential output is given by a constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function. Labour supply is determined via a Phillips curve or within a wage-setting framework and the rate of participation to the labour force depends on the rate of unemployment. The short run dynamics is determined by an error-correction model, which implicitly assumes the presence of adjustment costs that smooth the convergence towards the long run equilibrium. The properties of the model are satisfying in many ways. The forecasts given by the model can be favourably compared to those given by a Vector-Autoregression, using a few exogenous values reflecting both the foreign and monetary environment; the model also allows understanding the evolution of a range of macroeconomic variables. Moreover, the models responses to standard shocks are in line with usual analytical exercises. In the long run, potential output is determined by the working age population, total factor productivity, the terms of trade, wage taxation and the real cost of capital. The model can also be used with rational-expectation-hypothesis dealing with the exchange rate and the long-term interest rate. This enables an illustrative study for the choice of monetary reaction functions.Macroeconometric Modelling, Euro Area Dataset, Forecasting, Impulse Response, Rational Expectations, Monetary Reaction Functions