Modeling Moldova

The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model which lies at the heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the Moldovan economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in Moldova through the lens of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison

Modeling Georgia

The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model which lies at heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the Georgian economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in Georgia through the optic of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison

Modeling Russia

The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model lies at the heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the Russian economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in Russia through the optic of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison

Modeling South Africa

The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model lies at the heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the South African economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in South Africa through the optic of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison

Modeling Guatemala

The report consists of three chapters. Chapter 1 presents the structural macroeconomic model, its changes compared to the December 2009 version, and its properties captured by impulse-response functions and by variance decompositions of model’s variables in terms of the model shocks. Important is the part on the model-consistent interpretation of the recent economic history of Guatemala. The section describing Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the nearterm forecasting concludes. Chapter 2 evaluates how the models perform empirically. The forecasting power is assessed using both in-sample and out-of-sample comparisons with the random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison. The last chapter provides an overview of the considerable country database that has been compiled

Modeling Uganda

The report has three chapters. The chapter 1 summarizes main features of the Ugandan economy relevant for building the FPAS. The chapter 2 presents the structural macroeconomic model and its properties captured by decompositions of variances of the model’s variables in terms of the model shocks and by its impulse-response functions. The chapter also describes Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the near-term forecasting. The chapter 3 evaluates how the models perform empirically. The forecasting power is assessed both in the sample as well as by using an out-of-the-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison

Modeling Armenia

The report has two chapters. Chapter 1 describes the structural model which lies at heart of the FPAS. It summarizes the main features of the Armenian economy relevant for building the structural model and describes in detail the most distinctive parts of the model. The chapter concludes with an analysis of the model properties and an interpretation of past economic developments in Armenia through the optic of the model. Chapter 2 evaluates how the FPAS performs empirically. The forecasting power is assessed by in-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison

Modeling Belarus

The report has three chapters. Chapter 1 presents the structural macroeconomic model, its changes compared to the May 2010 version, and its properties captured by impulseresponse functions and by variance decompositions of model’s variables in terms of the model shocks. Important is the part on the model-consistent interpretation of the recent economic history of Belarus. The section describing Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the near-term forecasting concludes. Chapter 2 evaluates how the models perform empirically. The forecasting power is assessed using both in-sample and out-of-sample comparisons with the random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfyingly in this comparison. The last chapter provides an overview of the considerable country database that has been compiled