Numerical Model‐Software for Predicting Rock Formation Failure‐Time Using Fracture Mechanics

Real‐time integrated drilling is an important practice for the upstream petroleum industry. Traditional pre‐drill models, tend to offset the data gathered from the field since information obtained prior to spudding and drilling of new wells often become obsolete due to the changes in geology and geomechanics of reservoir‐rocks or formations. Estimating the complicated non‐linear failure‐time of a rock formation is a difficult but important task that helps to mitigate the effects of rock failure when drilling and producing wells from the subsurface. In this study, parameters that have the strongest impact on rock failure were used to develop a numerical and computational model for evaluating wellbore instability in terms of collapse, fracture, rock strength and failure‐time. This approach presents drilling and well engineers with a better understanding of the fracture mechanics and rock strength failureprediction procedure required to reduce stability problems by forecasting the rock/formation failuretime. The computational technique built into the software, uses the stress distribution around a rock formation as well as the rock’s responses to induced stress as a means of analyzing the failure time of the rock. The results from simulation show that the applied stress has the most significant influence on the failure‐time of the rock. The software also shows that the failure‐time varied over several orders of magnitude for varying stress‐loads. Thus, this will help drilling engineers avoid wellbore failure by adjusting the stress concentration properly through altering the mud pressure and well orientation with respect to in‐situ stresses. As observed from the simulation results for the failure time analysis, the trend shows that the time dependent strength failure is not just a function of the applied stress. Because, at applied stress of 6000–6050 psi there was time dependent failure whereas, at higher applied stress of 6350–6400 psi there was no time dependent strength failure

The performance of stochastic designs in wellbore drilling operations

© 2018, The Author(s). Wellbore drilling operations frequently entail the combination of a wide range of variables. This is underpinned by the numerous factors that must be considered in order to ensure safety and productivity. The heterogeneity and sometimes unpredictable behaviour of underground systems increases the sensitivity of drilling activities. Quite often the operating parameters are set to certify effective and efficient working processes. However, failings in the management of drilling and operating conditions sometimes result in catastrophes such as well collapse or fluid loss. This study investigates the hypothesis that optimising drilling parameters, for instance mud pressure, is crucial if the margin of safe operating conditions is to be properly defined. This was conducted via two main stages: first a deterministic analysis—where the operating conditions are predicted by conventional modelling procedures—and then a probabilistic analysis via stochastic simulations—where a window of optimised operation conditions can be obtained. The outcome of additional stochastic analyses can be used to improve results derived from deterministic models. The incorporation of stochastic techniques in the evaluation of wellbore instability indicates that margins of the safe mud weight window are adjustable and can be extended considerably beyond the limits of deterministic predictions. The safe mud window is influenced and hence can also be amended based on the degree of uncertainty and the permissible level of confidence. The refinement of results from deterministic analyses by additional stochastic simulations is vital if a more accurate and reliable representation of safe in situ and operating conditions is to be obtained during wellbore operations.Published versio