Democratization and Civil War

Draft 6/4/2013This paper examines the impact of civil war on democracy. Drawing from the literature on war and democracy, we investigate the impact of prolonged violence, war termination, rebel victory, and international intervention on democratization. Using an unbalanced panel data set of 96 countries covering a 34-year period, our analysis suggests that civil war lowers democratization in the succeeding period. Our findings suggest that United Nations intervention increases democratization, as do wars ending in stalemates. However, wars ending in rebel victories seem to reduce democracy. These findings appear robust to conditioning, different instrument sets, and the measurement of democracy

Colombia: Seeking Prosperity Through Peace

PreprintThe recent global transition to a more diffuse distribution of economic power points to a shift in the balance of global growth from rich to low- and middle- income economies. Colombia may be a prime example as its recent rapid per capita income growth of 10.2% on average since 1999 points to the potential for Colombia's convergence to the ranks of rich countries. However, Colombia's economic growth has been constrained by over 40 years of a costly and ineffective drug war policy that has failed. The illicit activity of drug production and trafficking grosses approximately $10-$20 billion a year; it does not enter into the GDP accounting. In addition, the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) has stifled Colombia's drive towards economic prosperity. Barring the social and political impasse, the economy would flourish

The effects of cognitive-behavioural therapy on mood-related ruminative response style in depressed adolescents

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A mood-related ruminative response style increases the risk of onset and persistence of depression. This preliminary study investigated whether, in depressed adolescents, cognitive-behaviour therapy reduces mood-related ruminative response style. Whether specific factors within the rumination scale were differentially affected by CBT is also reported.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>26 depressed adolescents were randomised to receiving serotonin-specific reuptake inhibitor antidepressants (SSRI) plus psychosocial treatment as usual or SSRI and psychosocial treatment as usual plus CBT. Ruminative response style and depressive symptoms were measured at baseline and after 30 weeks of treatment, with the Responses to Depression Questionnaire and Mood and Feelings Questionnaire.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were significantly greater reductions in ruminations in the CBT group compared to the non-CBT group (<it>p </it>= .002). There was no significant difference in the reduction in self-reported depressive symptoms between the groups. Rumination was reduced to levels of never-depressed controls in adolescents who had recovered from depression and received CBT. There were greater falls in the CBT group in the more pathological 'brooding' factor of rumination.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These findings suggest that adding CBT to SSRI medication in the presence of active clinical care causes a greater reduction in mood-related ruminative response style in depressed adolescents. This may reduce the risk of future relapse.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials ISRCNT83809224.</p

Development of mental health first aid guidelines for deliberate non-suicidal self-injury: A Delphi study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is estimated that around 4% of the population engages, or has engaged, in deliberate non-suicidal self-injury. In clinical samples, the figures rise as high as 21%. There is also evidence to suggest that these figures may be increasing. A family member or friend may suspect that a person is injuring themselves, but very few people know how to respond if this is the case. Simple first aid guidelines may help members of the public assist people to seek and receive the professional help they require to overcome self-injury.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This research was conducted using the Delphi methodology, a method of reaching consensus in a panel of experts. Experts recruited to the panels included 26 professionals, 16 people who had engaged in self-injurious behaviour in the past and 3 carers of people who had engaged in self-injurious behaviour in the past. Statements about providing first aid to a person engaged in self-injurious behaviour were sought from the medical and lay literature, but little was found. Panel members were asked to respond to general questions about first aid for NSSI in a variety of domains and statements were extracted from their responses. The guidelines were written using the items most consistently endorsed by the consumer and professional panels.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 79 statements rated by the panels, 18 were accepted. These statements were used to develop the guidelines appended to this paper.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There are a number of actions which are considered to be useful for members of the public when they encounter someone who is engaging in deliberate, non-suicidal self-injury. These guidelines will be useful in revising curricula for mental health first aid and NSSI first aid training programs. They can also be used by members of the public who want immediate information about how to assist a person who is engaging in such behaviour.</p

Group mindfulness based cognitive therapy vs group support for self-injury among young people: Study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) is a transdiagnostic behaviour that can be difficult to treat; to date no evidence based treatment for NSSI exists. Mindfulness Based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT) specifically targets the mechanisms thought to initiate and maintain NSSI, and thus appears a viable treatment option. The aims of the current study are to test the ability of MBCT to reduce the frequency and medical severity of NSSI, and explore the mechanisms by which MBCT exerts its effect. Methods/Design: We will conduct a parallel group randomised controlled trial of Mindfulness Based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT) versus Supportive Therapy (ST) in young people aged 18-25 years. Computerised block randomisation will be used to allocate participants to groups. All participants will meet the proposed DSM-5 criteria for NSSI (i.e. five episodes in the last twelve months). Participants will be excluded if they: 1) are currently receiving psychological treatment, 2) have attempted suicide in the previous 12 months, 3) exhibit acute psychosis, 4) have a diagnosis of borderline personality disorder, or 5) have prior experience of MBCT. Our primary outcome is the frequency and medical severity of NSSI. As secondary outcomes we will assess changes in rumination, mindfulness, emotion regulation, distress tolerance, stress, and attentional bias, and test these as mechanisms of change. Discussion: This is the first randomised controlled trial to test the efficacy of MBCT in reducing NSSI. Evidence of the efficacy of MBCT for self-injury will allow provision of a brief intervention for self-injury that can be implemented as a stand-alone treatment or integrated with existing treatments for psychiatric disorders

Expenditure decentralization and natural resources

The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2018.05.015This paper explores the relationship between natural resource revenues and expenditure decentralization. While the literature suggests that an abundance of natural resources may have deleterious effects on fiscal decentralization and other variables, existing empirical evidence regarding expenditure decentral- ization is scant and suspect. We find that expenditure decentralization is highly persistent. We take this persistence into account and use four different estimation strategies to examine whether natural resource revenues influence expenditure decentralization. Increases in natural resource rents as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistically significantly and negatively affect expenditure decentralization. A 1% year-on-year increase in natural resource rents reduces estimated expenditure decentralization by approximately 0.1% to 0.3%. This result is robust to an alternative measure of resource dependence. Our findings strongly suggest that increases in resource endowments lead to a centralization of government expenditures

What Goes Up Must Come Down: Military Expenditure and Civil Wars

The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2017.1405235The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2017.1394309This paper examines the impact of civil war on military expenditure. We employ two measures of military expenditure: the share of military expenditure in general government expenditure and the logarithm of military expenditures. We would reasonably expect a priori that military expenditure as a share of general government expenditure increases during a civil war and that such increases would taper off over the duration of a civil war. We also explore whether the termination of a civil war induces a decline in the share of military expenditure as a share of the general government expenditure in the short-run. We find evidence the of share of military expenditure increases during a civil war and falls in the year succeeding the end of a civil war, and, in particular, if a war ends in a peace treaty. The level of military expenditures, however, rises during civil wars and does not appear to decline in the short-term after the end of a civil war