Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area

This paper is an exercise in dating the Euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. Using a quite flexible interpolation routine, we construct several monthly series of Euro area real GDP, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. To account for the asymmetry in growth regimes and duration across business cycle phases, we propose to extend this method with a combined amplitude/phase-length criterion ruling out expansionary phases that are short and flat. Applying the extended procedure to US and European data, we are able to replicate approximately the dating decisions of the NBER and the CEPR.business cycle, European business cycle, Euro area, Bry-Boschan, NBER methodology

patterns of change in industrial countries

Dieser Aufsatz behandelt die Entwicklung besonders umweltbelastender Branchen seit 1970. Untersucht werden 11 Grundstoffindustrien, die Elektrizitätserzeugung sowie der Straßengüterverkehr in 32 Industrieländern. Als nötig erweist sich dabei eine ökologische Industriepolitik, da alle anderen Versuche, die Umweltbelastung in Industrieländern zu vermindern – nachsorgender Umweltschutz, Auslagerung in Länder der Dritten Welt, intersektoraler Strukturwandel und ökologische Modernisierung ohne staatliche Einflußnahme –, bislang lediglich Teilerfolge verzeichneten und die Probleme der ”dirty industries” letztlich nicht lösen konnten.This article concerns itself with the environmental role of heavily polluting industries since 1970, analysing its development in 11 basic industries, as well as electricity production and road transport, in 32 industrial countries. It argues for a green industrial policy, demonstrating that other mitigations of environmental pressure in industrial countries – end-of-pipe treatment, relocation to the Third World, structural change in the industrial sector and even environmentally oriented modernisation – have so far been unable to solve the problems of “dirty industries”, although some approaches have shown (some) promise

Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area

This Paper is an exercise in dating the euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. We construct several monthly European real GDP series, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. Using this method we identify four business cycles. Studying further indicators of business activity, we conclude that the euro area has experienced three business cycles since 1970. We propose a simple amplitude/phase-length criterion for the Bry-Boschan procedure ruling out expansionary phases that are short and flat. Applying the extended procedure to US and European data, we are able to replicate approximately the dating decisions of NBER and CEPR.bry-boschan; business cycle; euro area; european business cycle; nber methodology

‘Dirty industries’: Patterns of change in industrial countries

This article concerns itself with the environmental role of heavily polluting industries since 1970, analysing its development in 11 basic industries, as well as electricity production and road transport, in 32 industrial countries. It argues for a green industrial policy, demonstrating that other mitigations of environmental pressure in industrial countries—end-of-pipe treatment, relocation to the Third World, structural change in the industrial sector and even environmentally oriented modernization—have so far been unable to solve the problems of ‘dirty industries’, although some approaches have shown (some) promise. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1997green policy, pollution, relocation,