Modelling the Adoption of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS)

Under the umbrella of the EU-Horizon project "Transformation for sustainable nutrient supply and management - trans4num", an agent-based modelling approach is established for ex-ante impact assessment to evaluate the (net) effects of adopting technological and social innovations based on Nature-Based Solutions (NBS)

Transfer of single farm payment entitlements to farm successors: impact on structural change and rental prices in Switzerland

This paper analyses the impact of tradable and non-tradable single farm payment (SFP) entitlements for farm successors on structural change and the lease market. Using the example of Swiss agriculture, the effects on rental-price trends and farm-exit rates are investigated. An ex-ante normative impact analysis is performed with the agent-based agricultural-sector model SWISSland, which simulates structural change processes and income trends in Swiss agriculture over a period of up to 15 years. A land market implemented at municipality level simulates the plot-by-plot leasing of land to surrounding neighbouring agents that is common in Switzerland. Allocation of plots to tenants as well as lease pricing is modelled taking into account the farm-specific land rents. The results show that personalised SFP entitlements which could not be transferred to a farm successor not only cause an intensification of structural change, but would also thus lead to a substantial reduction in rental prices. SFP entitlements which were successfully transferred to farm successors have only a slight impact on structural change and the rental prices of arable land. Only for grassland in the mountain region does a stronger shift result in a significant reduction in rental prices

Educational relevance and implications of spatial development in early childhood.

peer reviewe

VERSCHÄRFUNG DER CROSS-COMPLIANCE-ANFORDERUNGEN IN DER SCHWEIZ IM BEREICH PESTIZIDEINSATZ UND FUTTERMITTEL: WAS SIND DIE AUSWIRKUNGEN?

In der Schweiz verlangt eine Volksinitiative eine Verschärfung der bestehenden Cross-Compliance-Anforderungen. Es sollen nur noch Betriebe Direktzahlungen erhalten, wenn sie pestizidfrei produzieren, die Tiere mit dem auf dem Betrieb produzierten Futter ernähren können und Antibiotika nicht prophylaktisch oder regelmäßig einsetzen. Ziel der Studie ist es, die ökologischen und ökonomischen Folgen der Initiative mit dem Multiagentenmodell SWISSland abzuschätzen. Unter der Initiative werden etwa die Hälfte der Veredlungsbetriebe auf Direktzahlungen verzichten. Mutterkuhbetriebe halten die neuen Bedingungen mehrheitlich ein

Vulnerability assessment of food imports—Conceptual framework and empirical application to the case of Switzerland

The world's food supply is becoming increasingly vulnerable because of rising political and climatic crises. To identify food supply vulnerabilities at an early stage, this paper proposes a multifactorial and standardized import vulnerability index (IVI). The IVI encompasses (i) an exporter vulnerability index (EVI) consisting of four exporter-specific factors and (ii) a product vulnerability index (PVI) consisting of three product-specific factors. We applied a robust principal component analysis to derive weights to combine these individual factors into a standardized IVI. The IVI was applied to food import-dependent Switzerland from 2014 to 2019 as an empirical case study. The results showed that a large share of Swiss food imports mainly originated from neighboring countries, indicating a very low to moderate EVI. Regarding the PVI, only product groups that were imported from a small number of countries (e.g., oilseeds) or that showed a low self-sufficiency ratio (e.g., coffee) or high price volatility (e.g., meat) exhibited a high value. Moreover, the findings demonstrate that the IVI showed neither large fluctuations nor a decreasing or increasing trend. With regular updates, the proposed indicator can become a valuable monitoring tool for food supply security

A food tax only minimally reduces the N surplus of Swiss agriculture

CONTEXT Most Western-European countries exceed the critical loads for nitrogen (N) losses. High nitrogen (N) inputs make agriculture one of the largest contributors to N pollution. There might be a potential to reduce this losses with an output tax on animal products, as they have low N use efficiency and a tax has the potential to reduce the consumption of this products. OBJECTIVE We want to assess the potential of a food tax on animal products to reduce the N surplus of Swiss agriculture. METHODS We implemented a tax on meat and a tax on milk and meat in the agent-based model SWISSland. The model combines an agent-based model with a microeconomic model at the farm scale. To better understand the low response of the food tax, we applied in a second step a robust two-step global sensitivity analysis of abatement costs of individual model agents. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Imposing a tax led to an N surplus reduction of 2.1% where only meat was taxed and 2.3% where both milk and meat were taxed. The sensitivity analysis showed that distinct agents reacted non-uniformly to changing prices, so that the effect of the tax was sometimes even cancelled out. This calls for more differentiated policies to reduce the negative impact of N losses. SIGNIFICANCE The overall impact of the food tax was minor as the distinct agents react not uniformly to lower producer prices.ISSN:0308-521

Transfer of single farm payment entitlements to farm successors: impact on structural change and rental prices in Switzerland

This paper analyses the impact of tradable and non-tradable single farm payment (SFP) entitlements for farm successors on structural change and the lease market. Using the example of Swiss agriculture, the effects on rental-price trends and farm-exit rates are investigated. An ex-ante normative impact analysis is performed with the agent-based agricultural-sector model SWISSland, which simulates structural change processes and income trends in Swiss agriculture over a period of up to 15 years. A land market implemented at municipality level simulates the plot-by-plot leasing of land to surrounding neighbouring agents that is common in Switzerland. Allocation of plots to tenants as well as lease pricing is modelled taking into account the farm-specific land rents. The results show that personalised SFP entitlements which could not be transferred to a farm successor not only cause an intensification of structural change, but would also thus lead to a substantial reduction in rental prices. SFP entitlements which were successfully transferred to farm successors have only a slight impact on structural change and the rental prices of arable land. Only for grassland in the mountain region does a stronger shift result in a significant reduction in rental prices

How did farmers act? Ex-post validation of linear and positive mathematical programming approaches for farm-level models implemented in an agent-based agricultural sector model

This study evaluates linear programming (LP) and positive mathematical programming (PMP) approaches for 3,400 farm-level models implemented in the SWISSland agent-based agricultural sector model. To overcome limitations of PMP regarding the modelling of investment decisions, we further investigated whether the forecasting performance of farm-level models could be improved by applying LP to animal production activities only, where investment in new sectors plays a major role, while applying PMP to crop production activities. The database used is the Swiss Farm Accountancy Data Network. Ex-post evaluation was performed for the period from 2005 to 2012, with the 2003-2005 three-year average as a base year. We found that PMP applied to crop production activities improves the forecasting performance of farm-level models compared to LP. Combining PMP for crop production activi-ties with LP for modelling investment decisions in new livestock sectors improves the forecasting performance compared to PMP for both crop and animal production activities, especially in the medium and long term. For short-term forecasts, PMP for all production activities and PMP combined with LP for animal production activities produce similar results

How can South Africa’s land redistribution succeed? An agent-based modelling approach for assessing structural and economic impacts

This paper wants to make the case that agent-based modelling may contribute to provide support for the difficult process of South Africa’s land reform by running scenarios that then do not need to be explored in practice. An agent-based model (ILUPSA) was developed from a database of 605 commercial farmers and 833 commercially oriented smallholders, which are the potential land redistribution beneficiaries. Three scenarios are simulated (1) when a willing buyer- willing seller mechanism (WB-WS) is used to acquire land (baseline scenario), (2) WB- WS whereas redistributed land is subdivided into viable emerging farm parcels and (3) when less productive farms are expropriated. Simulation results shows that under WB-WS only 14% of commercial farmland becomes available for redistribution. Ninety-nine percent of this land is for grazing and the remainder is field crop and horticultural land. The redistribution becomes even more marginal when only farmland with low productivity is expropriated (less than a quarter of the land that becomes available in the baseline scenario). An estimated amount of R50 billion will be required to implement land redistribution