Kenya development scenarios 2030

This study applies the Scenario method developed by the Royal Dutch Shell Corporation to the work of Swedish development organization SIDA and its work in Kenya. The Study is an attempt to show alternate ways for the development sector to handle long term planning, risk and uncertainty in an increasingly complex world as well as dealing with the increased constraints to their resources. The study constructs three future scenarios for Kenya in 2030, based on the current political and economic situation of the country using the Trilemma triangle method explained in the Shell Global Scenarios to 2025. The three scenarios constructed show how Kenya handles the dual crisis of security and trust in different ways given the dominant forces at play within the scenarios. The study finds that the scenario method is well suited for both shorter and longer term strategic planning for development organizations and that the Shell scenario model can be a useful tool outside of the private sector

Seed dispersal between aquatic and agricultural habitats by greylag geese

Waterbirds disperse plant seeds within and between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems in their faeces. However, seed dispersal distances, connectivity among habitat types, and implications for dispersal of weeds remain unquantified in agricultural landscapes. Therefore, we GPS-tagged 31 greylag geese Anser anser and collected 300 faecal samples from feeding flocks in seven agricultural habitats (four cereals, hayfields, pasture, and strawberries) across two landscapes in southern Sweden. We identified intact seeds, determined key plant traits, and tested three hypotheses: (1) geese ingest, transport, and egest seeds from a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic plants, including weeds and alien species; (2) the community and trait composition of plant seeds in faeces vary between habitat types; and (3) seed dispersal by geese is a directional dispersal mechanism that connects some habitat types more than others. We recovered 131 seeds from 41 plant species (19 families), including nine agricultural weeds and one alien species. Many seeds were from aquatic plants (45%), dispersed into terrestrial habitats. A connectivity network formed between habitat types (as nodes) and direct flights (as links) revealed that all agricultural habitats were directly connected with each other, although 66% of flights were between aquatic and agricultural habitats. Geese spent most time at lakes (34%), pastures (14%), barley (10%) and wheat (8%) fields, which were also the most interconnected habitats, with high seed species richness and seed abundance in faecal samples. Combining waterfowl movement data with faecal analysis provided support for all three hypotheses. Geese may contribute to previously overlooked agricultural conflicts through weed dispersal. Proximity to aquatic habitats suitable for roosting may increases the use of agricultural habitats, and potentially the seed dispersal into them

Reducing the number of grazing geese on agricultural fields - Effectiveness of different scaring techniques

Scaring is a widely used damage mitigation tool to make agricultural fields less attractive to wildlife and by that reduce crop damage. However, few experimental studies exist where the numerical response of different scaring devices has been compared. We tested experimentally the effect of three different scaring devices (kite, scarecrow, inflatable man) on the number of geese in fields with cereals, ley, rapeseed, potatoes, and carrots in Sweden. Geese were counted by camera traps and two approaches were used; in a first (model 1) only geese within 50-150m of the scaring devices were counted, and in a second (model 2) all geese in the field were included. A total of 42,281 geese were counted: Greylag goose Anser anser was the most common species (87%), followed by bean goose Anser fabalis (6%), greater white-fronted goose Anser albifrons (3%), barnacle goose Branta leucopsis (2%), and Canada goose Branta canadensis (2%). During scaring the number of geese significantly decreased for all three devices in model 2. The inflatable man decreased goose numbers by 90.0 %, scarecrow 64.6%, and kite 60.5%. A similar pattern was found in model 1, but the decrease was not significant. Our study shows that the scaring devices studied can reduce goose grazing pressure for some time and locally. However, since geese continue to graze during scaring, we conclude that scaring alone is not a final solution to mitigate crop damage. Future work to develop more effective control measures should address the efficiency of other management tools and scaring techniques in combination

Territory size and habitat selection of breeding Common Cranes (Grus grus) in a boreal landscape

Information on how birds use different types of habitat and move within landscapes is crucial for avian ecology, conservation and management. The Common Crane Grus grus has the widest distribution of all crane species and covers both increasing and decreasing populations. Ecological knowledge is therefore necessary both for conservation and to mitigate bird-human conflicts. We studied territory size and habitat selection of breeding Common Cranes (n=11) at two spatial scales in south-central Sweden by using VHF and UPS transmitters. Breeding families of Cranes were strongly associated with farmlands and wetlands independent of spatial scale. However, 41% of positions were within forested habitats. According to a compositional analysis, moist and wet forests were selected more frequently than dry forests. Territory size was on average 250 ha +/- 47.8 SE. The territories showed little overlap between neighboring breeding pairs. Our study provides information necessary for estimating densities of breeding pairs, but also to indicate habitat types worth special attention by landscape managers and conservationists

How effective are interventions to reduce damage to agricultural crops from herbivorous wild birds and mammals? A systematic review protocol

BackgroundAn important conservation challenge is to mitigate negative impacts that wild birds and mammals can have on human practices and livelihoods, and not least on agricultural crops. Technical interventions to limit the number and severity of damages are available, but evaluations of intervention effectiveness are usually limited in scope, and meta-analyses are rare. This protocol describes a systematic review that seeks to answer the following question: How effective are evaluated interventions in reducing damage from herbivorous wild birds and mammals on agricultural crops?MethodsThe literature searches are made in the databases Scopus and Zoological Record. The search string is based on a Population-Intervention-Comparator-Outcome (PICO) formatted research question, and search terms fall within five categories: Wildlife type (Population), Damage object (Population), Counteraction (Intervention), Evaluation (Comparator), and Damage (Outcome). Initial scoping searches informed amendment of the search string. A set of 19 benchmark articles were used to estimate the ability of the scoping search to capture relevant literature. To be eligible for inclusion in the review, original articles should study cases where settings of exposure to interventions (measures implemented to reduce damages on agricultural crops caused by terrestrial birds and mammals) are compared to a control setting without exposure to interventions. Eligible studies will be subject to data extraction, systematically documented in an Excel spreadsheet. Associated risk of bias will be critically appraised for the included articles according to seven criteria: 1. risk of confounding biases, 2. risk of post-intervention selection biases, 3. risk of misclassified comparison biases (observational studies only), 4. risk of performance biases (experimental studies only), 5. risk of detection biases, 6. risk of outcome reporting biases, and 7. risk of outcome assessment biases. The results will be reported in narrative and, if possible, quantitative syntheses. The quantitative synthesis will include a summary statistic calculated based on the data of each study and illustrated graphically in a forest plot. If possible, meta-regression analyses will be conducted

Adaptive capacity in the multi-level management system of migratory waterbirds: a case study of participatory goose management in Sweden

Adaptive management (AM) is one approach to manage migratory waterbirds, but obstacles to the implementation of AM require adaptive capacities in the management system (rules, institutions, action situations). This study aims to examine the adaptive capacity of participatory goose management in Sweden. Considering the biophysical and institutional context, we analyzed how tangible, individual, and governance assets were associated with technical and social learning. Interviews with informants in the national council for geese, swans, and cranes, and local management groups (LMGs) were conducted, and documentation reviewed. Results revealed evidence of a local preparedness in areas with an LMG. Nevertheless, the study highlighted a need to formalize the evolving system, to consider a more systematic implementation of AM (including regulations allowing for adaptive responses), and to ensure stakeholder acceptance for management tools and visions. The study illustrates the need for a broad set of assets to ensure learning in participatory management

Skenäktenskap i teori och praktik. Ett undantag från rätten till familjeåterförening

Sedan EU-direktivet om rätt till familjeåterförening införlivades i svensk rätt har makar rätt till familjeåterförening i Sverige. Denna rättighet är dock inte absolut, utan bortfaller om äktenskapet med lagtextens ord ingåtts uteslutande för att den ena maken ska få rätt till uppehållstillstånd (s.k. skenäktenskap). Till stöd för bedömningen av vad som är ett skenäktenskap finns kriterier i en EU-resolution och i svenska propositioner, t.ex. att förhållandet ska ha varat en tid och att makarna förväntas ha kännedom om varandras personliga förhållanden. Det finns dock ingen uttömmande lista över de kriterier som får användas vid bedömningen, vilket kan antas inverka menligt på förutsebarheten till den enskildes nackdel. I en proposition anges att de kriterier som listas i källorna ovan är objektiva. Uppsatsen har tre delsyften, varav det första är att undersöka gällande svensk rätt: Vilket är lagtextens förhållande till skenäktenskapskriterierna? Är kriterierna objektiva, i betydelsen värderingsfria? Om de inte är det, vilka värderingar kan då antas ligga bakom dem? Det andra delsyftet är att undersöka skenäktenskapsbedömningen i praktiken (vilket i denna uppsats främst innebär beslut och domar från Migrationsverket och migrationsdomstolen i Malmö): Vilka kriterier används vid bedömningen, såväl av de kriterier som finns listade i ovan nämnda källor som de som inte återfinns där (”nya” kriterier)? Hur används kriterierna? Leder den icke-uttömmande listan över kriterier till godtycklig bedömning? Om de nya kriterierna inte är värderingsfria, vilka värderingar kan antas ligga bakom dem? Analysen av värderingarna sker till viss del med hjälp av sociologiska teorier om parförhållanden, t.ex. Anthony Giddens ”rena relation”. Uppsatsens tredje delsyfte är att undersöka alternativ till skenäktenskapsreglernas nuvarande utformning. En analys av gällande rätt angående skenäktenskap ger vid handen att lagtexten tolkas subjektivteleologiskt: skenäktenskapskriterierna ges i praktiken företräde framför lagtextens ordalydelse. Inga kriterier för att bedöma skenäktenskap, varken de som finns listade eller de som författas vid tillämpningen, kan vara fria från värderingar, eftersom begreppet ”skenäktenskap” bygger på värderingar. De listade skenäktenskapskriterierna har dock den egenskapen att de i stort behandlar relationens yttre egenskaper och inte den ”inre kärnan” (t.ex. gemensamma värderingar mellan makarna). Det kriterium som tillämpades mest i det undersökta materialet var det som anger att makarna ska lämna samstämmiga uppgifter om varandras personliga förhållanden m.m. Detta kriterium stämmer ihop med vissa sociologiska teorier om parrelationer, men det riskerar att missgynna vissa grupper av personer. Även många nya, icke-listade kriterier användes vid bedömningen. Värderingarna bakom de nya kriterier som tillämpades av migrationsdomstolen tycks i allmänhet ha mer gemensamt med värderingarna bakom de listade kriterierna och de övriga avslagsgrunderna inom familjeåterförening, än de nya kriterier som tillämpades endast av Migrationsverket. I det undersökta materialet finns det inga exempel som tydligt visar att relevant lika fall behandlats olika i samma instans. Dock finns det några exempel på att en och samma omständighet tillmätts helt olika betydelse av Migrationsverket och migrationsdomstolen. I uppsatsen föreslås två alternativ till den nuvarande ordningen: lagtolkning i enlighet med lagens ordalydelse eller lagtolkning med hjälp av något ändrade skenäktenskapskriterier. Det senare alternativet bedöms ha flest fördelar.Since the incorporation in Swedish law of the EU directive on family reunification, spouses have a right to family reunification. This right, however, is subject to limitations, e.g. for marriages which were contracted for the sole purpose of enabling the person concerned to obtain a residence permit (“marriages of convenience”). Criteria in aid of assessing which marriages are marriages of convenience can be found in an EU resolution on the subject as well as in Swedish travaux préparatoires, e.g., the relationship must have endured a certain amount of time, and the spouses must be consistent about their respective personal details. The lists of critera, however, are non-exhaustive. This may affect negatively the foreseeability of the decisions, to the disadvantage of the applicants. In one of the travaux préparatoires, the criteria are claimed to be objective. This thesis has three main purposes, the first of which is to examine the Swedish law and its practice concerning marriages of convenience: What is the relation between the text of the statute and the criteria for assessing marriages of convenience? Are these criteria objective, meaning “free from values”? If they are not, what values can be assumed to have inspired them? The second main purpose is to examine the assessment of marriages in practice, that is, at the Swedish Migration Board (Migrationsverket) and the Migration Court in Malmö (migrationsdomstolen): What criteria are used in the assessment, as well of the criteria in the sources mentioned above as the criteria which are not mentioned in those sources (“new” criteria)? How are these criteria interpreted and used? Are there signs of arbitrary decisions, given the non-exhaustive character of the lists of criteria? If the “new” criteria are not free from values, what values could have inspired them? In analyzing the criteria, this thesis makes use of sociological theories on partner relationships, such as Anthony Giddens’s “pure relationship.” The third main purpose of the thesis is to examine alternative ways to model the assessment of suspected marriages of convenience. The analysis of the law in practice shows that the text of the statute is interpreted in a way suited to its purpose as shown in the travaux préparatoires: the criteria for assessing marriages of convenience are given dominance over the wording of the statute. No criteria for assessing marriages of convenience could be objective, since the term “marriage of convenience” is a subjective judgment. One quality, however, of the criteria listed in the sources mentioned above, is that they mainly concern exterior aspects, not the “inner core” of the relationship (e.g., values shared by the spouses). The one criterion which was applied most often in the investigated decisions and judgments was the criterion demanding consistent information regarding personal information of the spouses. This criterion harmonizes well with certain sociological theories on partner relationships, but may cause unfair treatment of certain categories of people. Many “new” criteria were used in the assessments. The values behind the new criteria applied by the Migration Court seem to harmonize better with the values behind the listed criteria and other grounds of rejection in family reunification, than do those new criteria applied solely by the Migration Board. There is no evidence in the material of this thesis that relevantly similar cases have been treated differently in the same instance. There are, however, a few examples of circumstances being awarded significantly different weight by the Migration Board and the Migration Court. Two alternative ways to design the assessment of marriages of convenience are proposed in this thesis: interpretation of the law in accordance with its wording, or interpretation of the law with the aid of somewhat modified criteria for the assessment of marriages of convenience. The latter alternative is found to have more advantages than the former

Migration patterns of Swedish Greylag geese Anser anser-implications for flyway management in a changing world

Significant population growth of some European goose populations has led to initiatives to implement management at the flyway level. Understanding migration routes and spatiotemporal distribution is crucial for the successful and coordinated management of migratory species such as geese. In this study, we describe movements across the entire annual cycle in 76 Greylag geese (Anser anser) fitted with GPS tracking devices at five catch sites in Sweden. We show that Greylag geese breeding in Sweden still use a NE-SW migration path. However, the wintering range has undergone a northward shift during the last decades. Compared to previous studies, our data suggest a continued reduction in migration distance, being most pronounced in birds in southernmost Sweden. Greylag geese tagged in southernmost Sweden spent almost the entire annual cycle in Sweden and Denmark (97 and 100% of all GPS locations). In contrast, the flyway of Greylag geese from the northern catch sites still covers countries from Sweden to Spain, but presently, only a small fraction of the population migrates to Spain. Instead, most of the annual cycle is spent in Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, or Germany. The contrasting spatiotemporal distribution in geese of different geographical origin indicates that management initiatives for the NW/SW European Greylag Goose population need to consider that different migration strategies occur within previously defined management units. As a consequence, coordination of management actions (e.g. monitoring, harvest quotas, reserves) may need to consider different spatial scales, i.e. from the regional to the international scale depending on the origin of the Greylag geese

The proximity of rapeseed fields influences levels of forest damage by red deer

Deer can show transitional use between agricultural fields and forests for foraging and shelter. Such transitional use may affect forest damage as nutrient balancing theory suggests that if deer ingest large amounts of nutrient-rich food, complementary browse, such as bark, may be required to balance the diet.We investigated the relationship between the level of red deer Cervus elaphus bark-stripping damage in 68 Norway spruce Picea abies stands and the presence of rapeseed Brassica napus fields – an energy-rich crop preferred by red deer – in the surroundings, hypothesizing that damage increases with decreasing distance to rapeseed fields. We also considered other potentially influencing factors, such as supplemental feeding, alternative forage availability, and deer use of spruce stands as indexed by a pellet group count.Spruce stands closer to rapeseed had a significantly higher proportion of damaged stems. The increased level of bark-stripping damage was not explained by a higher stand use of deer closer to rapeseed fields, indicating that deer increase their consumption of bark in order to balance their diet. Similarly, spruce stands closer to supplemental feeding stations had significantly higher damage levels.In line with earlier findings, damage levels were negatively related to the amount of available browse in the forest. This emphasizes the importance of alternative forage for reducing the damage risk in forest plantations.Our study shows that the availability of fields with nutrient-rich food, such as rapeseed, as well as supplemental feeding needs to be considered when predicting the level of forest damage. With a high availability of nutrient-rich food in the vicinity of forest stands, a higher damage level can be expected and counteractions could be taken such as increased disturbance, harvest or changed choice of both crop and supplemental feed types. These actions may also be combined with a push–pull strategy where the deer are steered to disturbance-free zones insensitive to damage and with alternative forage. The importance of alternative forage availability on damage levels highlights the necessity for managers to actively promote tree and shrub forage within and around their production stands

Using citizen data in a population model to estimate population size of moose (Alces alces)

Long-term and wide-ranging citizen science programs provide a unique opportunity to monitor wildlife populations and trends through time while encouraging stakeholder participation, engagement, and trust. Hunter observations is such a program that in Sweden is used on a regular basis to monitor population trends of moose. However, hunter observations are not reliable to determine the actual population size. We developed a mechanistic moose population model that integrated citizen science data and used it at various geographical scales to estimate moose population size between 2012 and 2020. A sensitivity analysis, specifically performed for recruitment, adult sex ratio and calf sex ratio, showed that the simulated population size was most sensitive for variation in recruitment. According to the results, Sweden had a total moose population of -311 000 (+/- 4%) individuals pre-hunt and -228 000 (+/- 4%) post-hunt in 2020. The post-hunt moose abundance has decreased nationwide with 15%, from 0.72 to 0.61 moose per km2 during the 2012 - 2020 period. The present post-hunt moose density was estimated at 0.39, 0.78, 0.84 and 0.54 per km2 for the regions northernmost, northern, central and southern Sweden, respectively. The simulation model can be used for strategic and operative management at various geographical scales and is publicly available. By integrating citizen data with a mechanistic population model, a new low-cost method of estimating population size and relevant population dynamics was established