Consistency of Bayesian procedures for variable selection

It has long been known that for the comparison of pairwise nested models, a decision based on the Bayes factor produces a consistent model selector (in the frequentist sense). Here we go beyond the usual consistency for nested pairwise models, and show that for a wide class of prior distributions, including intrinsic priors, the corresponding Bayesian procedure for variable selection in normal regression is consistent in the entire class of normal linear models. We find that the asymptotics of the Bayes factors for intrinsic priors are equivalent to those of the Schwarz (BIC) criterion. Also, recall that the Jeffreys--Lindley paradox refers to the well-known fact that a point null hypothesis on the normal mean parameter is always accepted when the variance of the conjugate prior goes to infinity. This implies that some limiting forms of proper prior distributions are not necessarily suitable for testing problems. Intrinsic priors are limits of proper prior distributions, and for finite sample sizes they have been proved to behave extremely well for variable selection in regression; a consequence of our results is that for intrinsic priors Lindley's paradox does not arise.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOS606 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Storable votes

Motivated by the need for more flexible decision-making mechanisms in the European Union, the paper proposes a simple but novel voting scheme for binary decisions taken by committees that meet regularly over time. At each meeting, committee members are allowed to store their vote for future use; the decision is then taken according to the majority of votes cast. The possibility of shifting votes intertemporally allows agents to concentrate their votes when preferences are more intense, and although the scheme will not in general achieve full efficiency, making votes storable typically leads to ex ante welfare gains. The analysis in the paper suggests that the result will hold if one of the following conditions is satisfied: (i) the number of voters is above a minimum threshold; (ii) preferences are not too polarized; (iii) the horizon is long enough

Redistribution policy: A European model

Following the rationale for regional redistribution programs described in the official documents of the European Union, this paper studies a very simple multi-country model built around two regions: a core and a periphery. Technological spill-overs link firms' productivity in each of the two region, and each country's territory falls partly in the core and partly in the periphery, but the exact shares vary across countries. We find that, in line with the EU view, the efficient regional allocation requires both national and international transfers. If migration is fully free across all borders, then optimal redistribution policy results from countries' uncoordinated policies, obviating the need for a central agency. But if countries have the option of setting even imperfect border barriers, then efficiency is likely to require coordination on both barriers and international transfers (both of which will be set optimally at positive levels). The need for coordination increases as the Union increases in size

The identification of MAXI J1659-152 as a black hole candidate

We report on the analysis of all 65 pointed Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer observations of the recently discovered soft X-ray transient MAXI J1659-152 (initially referred to as GRB 100925A). The source was studied in terms of its evolution through the hardness-intensity diagram (HID) as well as its X-ray variability properties. MAXI J1659-152 traced out an anti-clockwise loop in the HID, which is commonly seen in transient low-mass X-ray binaries. The variability properties of the source, in particular the detection of type-B and type-C low-frequency quasi-periodic oscillations, and the way they evolve along the HID track, indicate that MAXI J1659-152 is a black hole candidate. The spectral and variability properties of MAXI J1659-152 imply that the source was observed in the hard and soft intermediate states during the RXTE observations, with several transitions between these two states.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

The ABC of low-frequency quasi-periodic oscillations in Black-Hole Candidates: analogies with Z-sources

Three main types of low-frequency quasi-periodic oscillations (LFQPOs) have been observed in Black Hole Candidates. We re-analyzed RXTE data of the bright systems XTE J1859+226, XTE J1550-564 and GX 339-4, which show all three of them. We review the main properties of these LFQPOs and show that they follow a well-defined correlation in a fractional rms vs. softness diagram. We show that the frequency behavior through this correlation presents clear analogies with that of Horizontal-, Normal- and Flaring-Branch Oscillations in Z sources, with the inverse of the fractional rms being the equivalent of the curvilinear coordinate Sz through the Z track.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, accepted by ApJ, uses emulateap

MODELLING STEEP SURFACES BY VARIOUS CONFIGURATIONS OF NADIR AND OBLIQUE PHOTOGRAMMETRY

Among the parts of the territory requiring periodical and careful monitoring, many have steep surfaces: quarries, river basins, land-slides, dangerous mountainsides. Aerial photogrammetry based on lightweight unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) is rapidly becoming the tool of election to survey limited areas of land with a high level of detail. Aerial photogrammetry is traditionally based on vertical images and only recently the use of significantly inclined imagery has been considered. Oblique photogrammetry presents peculiar aspects and offers improved capabilities for steep surface reconstruction. Full comprehension of oblique photogrammetry still requires research efforts and the evaluation of diverse case studies. In the present paper, the focus is on the photogrammetric UAS-based survey of a part of a large sandpit. Various flight configurations are considered: ordinary linear strips, radial strips (as the scarp considered has a semi-circular shape) and curved ones; moreover, nadir looking and oblique image blocks were acquired. Around 300 control points were measured with a topographic total station. The various datasets considered are evaluated in terms of density of the extracted point cloud and in terms of the distance between the reconstructed surface and a number of check points

Information channels in labor markets: On the resilience of referral hiring

Economists and sociologists disagree over markets' potential to assume functions typically performed by networks of personal connections, first among them the transmission of information. This paper begins from a model of labor markets where social ties are stronger between similar individuals and firms employing productive workers prefer to rely on personal referrals than to hire on the anonymous market (Montgomery (1991)). However, we allow workers in the market to engage in a costly action that can signal their high productivity, and ask whether the possibility of signaling reduces the reliance on the network. We find that the network is remarkably resilient. To be effective signaling must fulfill two contradictory requirements: unless the signal is extremely precise, it must be expensive or it is not informative; but it must be cheap, or the network can undercut it