Quantitative decision making for investment in global health intervention trials: case study of the NEWBORN study on emollient therapy in preterm infants in Kenya

Background: Partners from an NGO, academia, industry and government applied a tool originating in the private sector – Quantitative Decision Making (QDM) – to rigorously assess whether to invest in testing a global health intervention. The proposed NEWBORN study was designed to assess whether topical emollient therapy with sunflower seed oil in infants with very low birthweight <1500 g in Kenya would result in a significant reduction in neonatal mortality compared to standard of care. Methods: The QDM process consisted of prior elicitation, modelling of prior distributions, and simulations to assess Probability of Success (PoS) via assurance calculations. Expert opinion was elicited on the probability that emollient therapy with sunflower seed oil will have any measurable benefit on neonatal mortality based on available evidence. The distribution of effect sizes was modelled and trial data simulated using Statistical Analysis System to obtain the overall assurance which represents the PoS for the planned study. A decision-making framework was then applied to characterise the ability of the study to meet pre-selected decision-making endpoints. Resultsm There was a 47% chance of a positive outcome (defined as a significant relative reduction in mortality of ≥15%), a 45% chance of a negative outcome (defined as a significant relative reduction in mortality <10%), and an 8% chance of ending in the consider zone (ie, a mortality reduction of 10 to <15%) for infants <1500 g. Conclusions: QDM is a novel tool from industry which has utility for prioritisation of investments in global health, complementing existing tools [eg, Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative]. Results from application of QDM to the NEWBORN study suggests that it has a high probability of producing clear results. Findings encourage future formation of public-private partnerships for health

Improving provision of family planning among pastoralists in Kenya: perspectives from health care providers, community and religious leaders

There exist significant inequities in access to family planning (FP) in Kenya, particularly for nomadic and semi-nomadic pastoralists. Health care providers (HCP), are key in delivering FP services. Community leaders and religious leaders are also key influencers in women’s decisions to use FP. We found limited research exploring the perspectives of both HCPs and these local leaders in this context. We conducted semi-structured interviews with HCPs (n=4) working in facilities in Wajir and Mandera, and community leaders (n=4) and religious leaders (n=4) from the nomadic and semi-nomadic populations the facilities serve. We conducted deductive and inductive thematic analysis. Three overarching themes emerged: perception of FP as a health priority, explanations for low FP use, and recommendations to improve access. Four overlapping sub-themes explained low FP use: desire for large families, tension in FP decision-making, religion and culture, and fears about FP. Providers were from different socio-demographic backgrounds to the communities they served, who faced structural marginalisation from health and other services. Programmes to improve FP access should be delivered alongside interventions targeting the immediate health concerns of pastoralist communities, incorporating structural changes. HCPs that are aware of religious and cultural reasons for non-use, play a key role in improving access