Afghan civilians are much more tolerant of harm from the Taliban than they are from ISAF

As the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan continues in 2014, many are now concerned about the attitudes of local civilians towards the Taliban compared with the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). Jason Lyall, Graeme Blair and Kosuke Imai have conducted research on the ground in Afghanistan which aims to measure how civilian attitudes are effected by violence from both groups. They find that ISAF victimization is associated with a large increase in support for the Taliban, but that harm by the Taliban only leads to a modest drop in support.They also find however, that small, targeted assistance programs among those harmed by ISAF can help to reverse much of the outflow of support to the Taliban

Explaining Support for Combatants during Wartime: A Survey Experiment in Afghanistan (SWP 17)

How are civilians’ attitudes toward combatants affected by exposure to violence during wartime? Does civilian victimization affect these attitudes differently depending on the perpetrator’s identity? We investigate the determinants of wartime civilian attitudes towards combatants using a survey experiment across 204 villages in five Pashtun-dominated provinces of Afghanistan – the very heart of the Taliban insurgency. We use endorsement experiments to indirectly elicit truthful answers to sensitive questions about attitudes toward combatants. We find civilian attitudes toward the combatants to be asymmetric. Harm inflicted by ISAF is met with reduced ISAF support and increased Taliban support, but Taliban-inflicted harm does not translate into greater ISAF support. We combine a multistage sampling design with multilevel statistical modeling to estimate support levels for ISAF and the Taliban at the individual, village, and district levels, permitting a more fine-grained analysis of wartime attitudes than previously possible

Causal Inference with Spatio-temporal Data: Estimating the Effects of Airstrikes on Insurgent Violence in Iraq

Many causal processes have spatial and temporal dimensions. Yet the classic causal inference framework is not directly applicable when the treatment and outcome variables are generated by spatio-temporal processes with an infinite number of possible event locations. We extend the potential outcomes framework to these settings by formulating the treatment point process as a stochastic intervention. Our causal estimands include the expected number of outcome events in a specified area under a particular stochastic treatment assignment strategy. We develop methodology that allows for arbitrary patterns of spatial spillover and temporal carryover effects. Using martingale theory, we show that the proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal as the number of time periods increases, even when the propensity score is estimated. We propose a sensitivity analysis for the possible existence of unmeasured confounders, and extend it to the H\'ajek estimator. Simulation studies are conducted to examine the estimators' finite sample performance. Finally, we use the proposed methods to estimate the effects of American airstrikes on insurgent violence in Iraq from February 2007 to July 2008. We find that increasing the average number of daily airstrikes for up to one month results in more insurgent attacks across Iraq and within Baghdad. We also find evidence that airstrikes can displace attacks from Baghdad to new locations up to 400 kilometers away.Comment: Includes new theoretical results for dependent, spatio-temporal data: (1) asymptotic properties of the estimator based on the estimated propensity scores, (2) proof that the asymptotic variance using the estimated propensity scores is no greater than the variance of the estimator based on the true propensity scores, and (3) a new sensitivity analysis method applicable to the Hajek estimato

A harvestman (Arachnida: Opiliones) from the Early Devonian Rhynie cherts, Aberdeenshire, Scotland

A harvestman (Arachnida: Opiliones) is described from the Early Devonian (Pragian) Rhynie cherts, Aberdeenshire, Scotland. Eophalangium sheari gen. et sp. nov. is the oldest known harvestman. The material includes both males and a female preserving, respectively, a cuticle-lined penis and ovipositor within the opisthosoma. Both these structures are of essentially modern appearance. The Rhynie fossils also show tracheae which are, again, very similar to those of living harvestmen. This is the oldest unequivocal record of arachnid tracheal respiration and indicates that E. sheari was terrestrial. An annulate, setose ovipositor in the female suggests that it can be excluded from the clades Dyspnoi and Laniatores, in which the ovipositor lacks such annulations. However, the penis shows evidence of two muscles, a feature of uncertain polarity seen in modern Troguloidea (Dyspnoi). The presence of median eyes and long legs excludes Cyphophthalmi, and thus, E. sheari is tentatively referred to the suborder Eupnoi. Therefore, this remarkable material is implicitly a crown-group harvestman and is one of the oldest known crown-group chelicerates. It also suggests an extraordinary degree of morphological stasis within the eupnoid line, with the Devonian forms differing little in gross morphology – and perhaps in reproductive behaviour – from their modern counterparts.Peer Reviewe

Association between active commuting and incident cardiovascular disease, cancer, and mortality: prospective cohort study

Objective: To investigate the association between active commuting and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and all cause mortality. Design: Prospective population based study. Setting: UK Biobank. Participants: 263 450 participants (106 674 (52%) women; mean age 52.6), recruited from 22 sites across the UK. The exposure variable was the mode of transport used (walking, cycling, mixed mode v non-active (car or public transport)) to commute to and from work on a typical day. Main outcome measures: Incident (fatal and non-fatal) CVD and cancer, and deaths from CVD, cancer, or any causes. Results: 2430 participants died (496 were related to CVD and 1126 to cancer) over a median of 5.0 years (interquartile range 4.3-5.5) follow-up. There were 3748 cancer and 1110 CVD events. In maximally adjusted models, commuting by cycle and by mixed mode including cycling were associated with lower risk of all cause mortality (cycling hazard ratio 0.59, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.83, P=0.002; mixed mode cycling 0.76, 0.58 to 1.00, P<0.05), cancer incidence (cycling 0.55, 0.44 to 0.69, P<0.001; mixed mode cycling 0.64, 0.45 to 0.91, P=0.01), and cancer mortality (cycling 0.60, 0.40 to 0.90, P=0.01; mixed mode cycling 0.68, 0.57 to 0.81, P<0.001). Commuting by cycling and walking were associated with a lower risk of CVD incidence (cycling 0.54, 0.33 to 0.88, P=0.01; walking 0.73, 0.54 to 0.99, P=0.04) and CVD mortality (cycling 0.48, 0.25 to 0.92, P=0.03; walking 0.64, 0.45 to 0.91, P=0.01). No statistically significant associations were observed for walking commuting and all cause mortality or cancer outcomes. Mixed mode commuting including walking was not noticeably associated with any of the measured outcomes. Conclusions: Cycle commuting was associated with a lower risk of CVD, cancer, and all cause mortality. Walking commuting was associated with a lower risk of CVD independent of major measured confounding factors. Initiatives to encourage and support active commuting could reduce risk of death and the burden of important chronic conditions

The impact of confounding on the associations of different adiposity measures with the incidence of cardiovascular disease: a cohort study of 296 535 adults of white European descent

Aims: The data regarding the associations of body mass index (BMI) with cardiovascular (CVD) risk, especially for those at the low categories of BMI, are conflicting. The aim of our study was to examine the associations of body composition (assessed by five different measures) with incident CVD outcomes in healthy individuals. Methods and results: A total of 296 535 participants (57.8% women) of white European descent without CVD at baseline from the UK biobank were included. Exposures were five different measures of adiposity. Fatal and non-fatal CVD events were the primary outcome. Low BMI (≤18.5 kg m−2) was associated with higher incidence of CVD and the lowest CVD risk was exhibited at BMI of 22–23 kg m−2 beyond, which the risk of CVD increased. This J-shaped association attenuated substantially in subgroup analyses, when we excluded participants with comorbidities. In contrast, the associations for the remaining adiposity measures were more linear; 1 SD increase in waist circumference was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.16 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13–1.19] for women and 1.10 (95% CI 1.08–1.13) for men with similar magnitude of associations for 1 SD increase in waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ratio, and percentage body fat mass. Conclusion: Increasing adiposity has a detrimental association with CVD health in middle-aged men and women. The association of BMI with CVD appears more susceptible to confounding due to pre-existing comorbidities when compared with other adiposity measures. Any public misconception of a potential ‘protective’ effect of fat on CVD risk should be challenged

Sleep characteristics modify the association between genetic predisposition to obesity and anthropometric measurements in 119,679 UK Biobank participants

Background - Obesity is a multifactorial condition influenced by genetics, lifestyle and environment. Objective - To investigate whether the association between a validated genetic profile risk score for obesity (GPRS-obesity) with body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) was modified by sleep characteristics. Design - This study included cross-sectional data from 119,859 white European adults, aged 37-73 years, participating on the UK Biobank. Interactions between GPRS-obesity, and sleep characteristics (sleep duration, chronotype, day napping, and shift work) in their effects on BMI and WC were investigated. Results - The GPRS-obesity was associated with BMI (β:0.57 kg.m-2 per standard deviation (SD) increase in GPRS, [95%CI:0.55, 0.60]; P=6.3x10-207) and WC (β:1.21 cm, [1.15, 1.28]; P=4.2x10-289). There were significant interactions between GPRS-obesity and a variety of sleep characteristics in their relationship with BMI (P-interaction <0.05). In participants who slept <7 hrs or >9 hrs daily, the effect of GPRS-obesity on BMI was stronger (β:0.60 [0.54, 0.65] and 0.73 [0.49, 0.97] kg.m-2 per SD increase in GPRS, respectively) than in normal length sleepers (7-9 hours; β:0.52 [0.49, 0.55] kg.m-2 per SD). A similar pattern was observed for shiftworkers (β:0.68 [0.59, 0.77] versus 0.54 [0.51, 0.58] kg.m-2 for non-shiftworkers) and for night-shiftworkers (β:0.69 [0.56, 0.82] versus 0.55 [0.51, 0.58] kg.m-2 for non-night- shiftworkers), for those taking naps during the day (β:0.65 [0.52, 0.78] versus 0.51 [0.48, 0.55] kg.m-2 for those who never/rarely had naps) and for those with a self-reported evening chronotype (β:0.72 [0.61, 0.82] versus β:0.52 [0.47, 0.57] kg.m-2 for morning chronotype). Similar findings were obtained using WC as the outcome. Conclusions – This study shows that the association between genetic risk for obesity and phenotypic adiposity measures is exacerbated by adverse sleeping characteristics

Dietary fat and total energy intake modifies the association of genetic profile risk score on obesity: evidence from 48 170 UK Biobank participants

Background: Obesity is a multifactorial condition influenced by both genetics and lifestyle. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the association between a validated genetic profile risk score for obesity (GPRS-obesity) and body mass index (BMI) or waist circumference (WC) was modified by macronutrient intake in a large general population study. Methods: This study included cross-sectional data from 48 170 white European adults, aged 37–73 years, participating on the UK Biobank. Interactions between GPRS-obesity, and macronutrient intake (including total energy, protein, fat, carbohydrate and dietary fibre intake) and its effects on BMI and WC were investigated. Results: The 93-SNPs genetic profile risk score was associated with a higher BMI (β:0.57 kg.m−2 per standard deviation (s.d.) increase in GPRS, [95%CI:0.53–0.60]; P=1.9 × 10−183) independent of major confounding factors. There was a significant interaction between GPRS and total fat intake (P[interaction]=0.007). Among high fat intake individuals, BMI was higher by 0.60 [0.52, 0.67] kg.m−2 per s.d. increase in GPRS-obesity; the change in BMI with GPRS was lower among low fat intake individuals (β:0.50 [0.44, 0.57] kg.m-2). Significant interactions with similar patterns were observed for saturated fat intake (High β:0.66 [0.59, 0.73] versus Low β:0.49 [0.42, 0.55] kg.m-2, P-interaction=2 × 10-4), and total energy intake (High β:0.58 [0.51, 0.64] versus Low β:0.49 [0.42, 0.56] kg.m−2, P-interaction=0.019), but not for protein intake, carbohydrate intake and fiber intake (P-interaction >0.05). The findings were broadly similar using WC as the outcome. Conclusions: These data suggest that the benefits of reducing the intake of fats and total energy intake, may be more important in individuals with high genetic risk for obesity

Associations between diabetes and both cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality are modified by grip strength: evidence from UK Biobank, a prospective population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE Grip strength and diabetes are predictors of mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD), but whether these risk factors interact to predispose to adverse health outcomes is unknown. This study determined the interactions between diabetes and grip strength and their association with health outcomes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We undertook a prospective, general population cohort study by using UK Biobank. Cox proportional hazards models were used to explore the associations between both grip strength and diabetes and the outcomes of all-cause mortality and CVD incidence/mortality as well as to test for interactions between diabetes and grip strength. RESULTS 347,130 UK Biobank participants with full data available (mean age 55.9 years, BMI 27.2 kg/m2, 54.2% women) were included in the analysis, of which 13,373 (4.0%) had diabetes. Over a median follow-up of 4.9 years (range 3.3–7.8 years), 6,209 died (594 as a result of CVD), and 4,301 developed CVD. Participants with diabetes were at higher risk of all-cause and CVD mortality and CVD incidence. Significant interactions (P < 0.05) existed whereby the risk of CVD mortality was higher in participants with diabetes with low (hazard ratio [HR] 4.05 [95% CI 2.72, 5.80]) versus high (HR 1.46 [0.87, 2.46]) grip strength. Similar results were observed for all-cause mortality and CVD incidence. CONCLUSIONS Risk of adverse health outcomes among people with diabetes is lower in those with high grip strength. Low grip strength may be useful to identify a higher-risk subgroup of patients with diabetes. Intervention studies are required to determine whether resistance exercise can reduce risk