EFFECTS OF MEAT RECALLS ON FUTURES MARKET PRICES

The number of meat recalls has increased markedly in recent years. Meat recalls have the potential to adversely affect short run demand for meat because of the associated decline in consumer confidence. This research examines the impact of beef and pork recalls on nearby daily live cattle and lean hog futures market prices, respectively. Results indicate that medium sized beef and large pork recalls that are a serious health concern have a marginally negative impact on short-term live cattle and lean hog futures prices, respectively. However, results are not robust across recall size and severity. This research suggests that if there is any systematic significant change in beef and pork demand due to meat recalls, it likely occurs over an extended period of time and only in certain cases does it noticeably affect daily futures prices.meat recalls, event study, meat demand, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,

Effects of Meat Recalls on Futures Market Prices

The number of meat recalls has increased markedly in recent years. This research examines the impact of beef and pork recall announcements on nearby daily live cattle and lean hog futures market prices, respectively. Results indicate medium-sized beef recalls that are of serious health concerns have a marginally negative impact on short-term live cattle futures prices. However, results are not robust across recall size and severity. This research suggests that if there is any systematic change in cattle and hog demand due to meat recalls, it likely occurs over an extended period of time and only in certain cases does it noticeably affect daily futures prices.Agribusiness, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Toroidal Carbon Nanotubes with Encapsulated Atomic Metal Loops

Toroidal carbon nanotubes can serve as hosts for encapsulated loops of atomic metal wires. Such composite structures have been analyzed using density functional theory for a semiconducting C$_{120}$ torus encapsulating chains of Fe, Au and Cu atoms. The sheathed metal necklaces form a zigzag structure and drops the HOMO/LUMO bandgap to less than 0.1 eV. The iron composite is ferromagnetic with a magnetic moment essentially the same as that of bcc iron. The azimuthal symmetry of these toroidal composites suggests that they may offer novel elecromagnetic properties not associated with straight, metal-encapsulated carbon nanotubes.Comment: 6 pages, 9 figure

DESIGNING EXPERIMENTAL AUCTIONS FOR MARKETING RESEARCH: EFFECT OF VALUES, DISTRIBUTIONS, AND MECHANISMS ON INCENTIVES FOR TRUTHFUL BIDDING

Accurately estimating consumer demand for new products is an arduous task made even more difficult by the fact that individuals tend to overstate the amount they are willing to pay for new goods when asked hypothetical questions. Despite their appeal in eliminating hypothetical bias, marketers have been slow to adopt experimental auctions as a standard tool in pre-test market research. One issue that has slowed adoption of the methodology is the proliferation of auction mechanisms and the lack of clear guidance in choosing between mechanisms. In this paper, we provide insight into the theoretical properties of two incentive compatible value elicitation mechanisms, the BDM and Vickrey 2nd price auction, such that practitioners can make more informed decisions in designing experimental auctions to determine consumer willingness-to-pay. In particular, we draw attention to the shapes of the payoff functions and show in a simulation that the two mechanisms differ with respect to the expected cost of deviating from truthful bidding. We show that incentives for truthful bidding depend on the distribution of competing bidders' values and/or prices and individuals' true values for a good. The simulation indicates the 2nd price auction punishes deviations from truthful bidding more severely for high value individuals than the BDM mechanism. These results are confirmed by an experimental study, where we find more accurate bidding for high-value individuals in the 2nd price auction as compared to the BDM. Our results also indicate that when implementing the BDM mechanism, the greatest incentives for truthful value revelation are created when the random price generator is based on a normal distribution centered on an individual's expected true value.Institutional and Behavioral Economics,

HOW ARE CROP YIELDS DISTRIBUTED?

Six popular crop yield distributions are compared to determine which best describes yield fluctuations out-of-sample. For 183 crop and county combinations, each distribution is estimated and ranked according to its log-likelihood function observed at out-of-sample observations. A semiparametric model dominates the contest for most crops and counties, likely due to its flexibility and treatment of heteroskedasticity. Most other models ranked lower because their variance equation performed poorly out-of-sample.Crop Production/Industries,

Mechanical properties of connected carbon nanorings via molecular dynamics simulation

Stable, carbon nanotori can be constructed from nanotubes. In theory, such rings could be used to fabricate networks that are extremely flexible and offer a high strength-to-density ratio. As a first step towards realizing such nanochains and nanomaile, the mechanical properties of connected carbon nanorings were investigated via molecular dynamics simulation. The Young's modulus, extensibility and tensile stength of nanorings were estimated under conditions that idealize the constraints of nanochains and nanomaile. The results indicate nanorings are stable under large tensile deformation. The calculated Young's modulus of nanorings was found increase with deformation from 19.43 GPa to 121.94 GPa (without any side constraints) and from 124.98 GPa to 1.56 TPa (with side constraints). The tensile strength of unconstrained and constrained nanorings is estimated to be 5.72 and 8.522 GPa, respectively. The maximum strain is approximately 39% (nanochains) and 25.2% (nanomaile), and these deformations are completely reversible

When a risky prospect is valued more than its best possible outcome

In this paper, we document a violation of normative and descriptive models of decision making under risk. In contrast to uncertainty effects found by Gneezy, List and Wu (2006), some subjects in our experiments valued certain lotteries more than the best possible outcome. We show that the likelihood of observing this effect is positively related to the probability of winning the lottery and negatively related to the value of the maximum outcome. We also demonstrate that this effect can be partially attributed to subjects’ competitiveness and level of comprehension of the lottery mechanism; the competitiveness effects far outweighing comprehension effects.lottery, risk, competitiveness, Vickrey auctions

WHOLESALE DEMAND FOR USDA QUALITY GRADED BOXED BEEF AND EFFECTS OF SEASONALITY

This study estimates wholesale demand for pork, chicken, and quality differentiated beef. We estimate meat retailer own- and cross-price demand elasticities for USDA Choice and Select boxed beef. Results indicate that meat retailers have more elastic demand for lower quality graded beef. Retail beef price has a strong positive relationship with Choice and Select boxed beef demand, and a strong negative relationship with wholesale pork and chicken demand. Seasonal analysis reveals demand for both beef quality grades becomes highly price inelastic during the summer months. The two beef quality grades are substitutes during the winter; however, Select beef is not a substitute for Choice beef in the spring and summer.Demand and Price Analysis,