BAYESIAN HERDERS: ASYMMETRIC UPDATING OF RAINFALL BELIEFS IN RESPONSE TO EXTERNAL FORECASTS

Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world's poor. Recent advances in model-based climate forecasting have expanded the range, timeliness and accuracy of forecasts available to decision-makers whose welfare depends on stochastic climate outcomes. There has consequently been considerable recent investment in improved climate forecasting for the developing world. Yet, in cultures that have long used indigenous climate forecasting methods, forecasts generated and disseminated by outsiders using unfamiliar methods may not readily gain the acceptance necessary to induce behavioral change. The value of model-based climate forecasts depends critically on the premise that forecast recipients actually use external forecast information to update their rainfall expectations. We test this premise using unique survey data from pastoralists and agropastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya, specifying and estimating a model of herders updating seasonal rainfall beliefs. We find that those who receive and believe model-based seasonal climate forecasts indeed update their priors in the direction of the forecast received, assimilating optimistic forecasts more readily than pessimistic forecasts.Agribusiness, O1, D1, Q12,

The Measurement of Condom Use in Four Countries in East and Southern Africa

Measurement of condom use is important to assess progress in increasing use. Since 2003, the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and AIDS Indicator Surveys (AIS) have included new measures of self-reported condom use. We use data from Namibia, Swaziland, Tanzania, and Zambia to compare measures of condom use accounting for type of sexual partner. Condom use at last sex ranged from 20% in Tanzania to 57% in Namibia for men, and from 12% in Tanzania to 41% in Namibia for women. Reported condom use was lower in response to questions about condom use every time with last partner (from 13% to 47% for men and from 8% to 33% for women). Condom use was highest among people with two or more partners in the last year and lowest with marital partners. Overall, the prevalence of condom use was low, and there was wide variability across the various measures, countries, sexes, and types of partner. Promotion of condom use in all partnerships, but especially in non-marital relationships and among individuals with multiple partners, remains a critical strategy. New condom use questions in the DHS and AIS expand options for measuring and studying condom use

Consistent condom use among men with non-marital partners in four sub-Saharan African countries

Data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for Namibia, Swaziland, and Zambia and the AIDS Indicator Survey (AIS) from Tanzania were used to examine the influence of marital status and number of partners on consistent condom use among men with casual sexual partnerships in four generalized HIV epidemic settings. We restrict the sample to the 26% (Zambia), 29% (Tanzania), 35% (Swaziland), and 42% (Namibia) of men, who, in the last 12 months before the survey, had any non-marital/non-cohabiting (i.e., casual) sexual partners. We use “condom always used with any partner in the last 12 months” as a dichotomous dependent measure of consistent condom use. Analyses were stratified by country. Of men with casual partners, 41% (Zambia) to 70% (Namibia) used a condom every time with at least one partner. The majority of men were unmarried/non-cohabiting with one casual partner in the last year. In Swaziland and Zambia, multivariate results suggest that unmarried/non-cohabiting men with one casual partner had significantly lower odds than married/cohabiting men with casual partners to use condoms consistently (Odds ratio [OR] = 0.56, p=0.01 and OR = 0.41, p<0.001, respectively.). In Namibia, unmarried/non-cohabiting men with two or more casual partners had significantly greater odds than married/cohabiting men with casual partners to use condoms consistently (OR = 2.80, p<0.01). With some exceptions by country, higher education, religious group, wealth, having no children, knowing HIV results, having an STI, having one lifetime partner, and positive condom knowledge and beliefs also were significantly associated with using a condom every time with any partner. We conclude that consistent condom use remains an elusive goal even among men with casual sexual relationships. Condom use messages should be refined and targeted to men based on their number and types of relationships and combined with other messages to decrease concurrent relationships

Assessing the value of climate forecast information for pastoralists: Evidence from southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya

Climatic variability exerts tremendous influence on the livelihoods and well-being of pastoralists who inhabit the arid and semi-arid lands of the Horn of Africa. Recent advances in climate forecasting technologies have raised the intriguing prospect of reasonably accurate forecasts of coming seasons' rainfall patterns. Several donors and governments in the region are keenly interested in these technologies and in developing forecast delivery channels on the assumption that this information will prove valuable to the vulnerable populations it is meant to help not only indirectly, as an input into top-down early warning systems, but also directly, as a basis for improving choice under uncertainty. We explore the value of such external climate forecast information to pastoralists in a large study area spanning southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya using original data collected using both open-ended qualitative methods to identify and understand indigenous climate forecasting methods and quantitative data collected using survey instruments fielded in two rounds, one before and one after the long rains of 2001. The data show that pastoralists rely heavily on indigenous forecasting methods — in terms of having both access to and confidence in these methods — while external forecasts are less commonly received or believed. We elicited pastoralists' subjective, probabilistic expectations of the coming season's rainfall and find that neither use of nor belief in external forecasts causes any appreciable change in respondents' seasonal rainfall expectations. Moreover, relatively few pastoralists act on their own climate expectations, no matter how formed. In sum, climate forecast information does not seem a limiting factor at present in pastoralist communities in the Horn of Africa, not least of which because of the existence of a vibrant and still-relevant tradition of indigenous forecasting

'I thought if I marry the prophet I would not die': The significance of religious affiliation on marriage, HIV testing, and reproductive health practices among young married women in Zimbabwe

Published ArticleThis study examines the association between religious affiliation and reasons for marriage, perceived church attitudes, and reproductive health-seeking behaviors, including HIV testing, among young women in eastern rural Zimbabwe. The sample comprised women (N ¼ 35) who had married by 2012 while participating in a larger randomized controlled trial (RCT) to test the effects of school support on HIV-related risk. The RCT sample was identified in 2007 as all female sixth graders in 25 rural eastern Zimbabwe primary schools whose parents, one or both, had died (N ¼ 328). In our previous RCT analyses, we found that participants who affiliated with an Apostolic church were more than four times more likely to marry than those from non- Apostolic churches and that control group participants were twice as likely to marry as those in the intervention group. Other studies had found that marriage greatly increased the odds of HIV infection among adolescent women. Given the link between Apostolic affiliation and marriage, we conducted semi-structured interviews to explore type of marriage, reasons for marrying, church affiliation and attitudes, family planning, HIV testing, schooling, and family life. We were interested in differences, as perceived by our sample of young married women congregants, among Apostolic sects and other denominations in their attitudes about marriage and health-seeking behaviors. We were also interested in the influence of church affiliation on intervention participants’ decision to marry, since they had comprehensive school support and education is highly valued in Zimbabwe, but costly and often out of financial reach. Interviews were conducted from October 2012 through November 2013; data were analyzed using a general inductive approach. We found that pressure or perceived deception for coitus or marriage was reported only by intervention participants affiliated with Apostolic denominations. Other reasons for marriage were similar between Apostolic and non-Apostolic adherents, as well as intervention and control conditions. All participants believed HIV testing was important, but while all non-Apostolic denominations encouraged HIV testing and clinic/hospital care, there was considerable heterogeneity in attitudes among Apostolics, with ultraconservative denominations most likely to proscribe nonreligious health care. We conclude that some, but not all, Apostolic-affiliated women are afforded discretion in their healthseeking behaviors. Since HIV screening and treatment depend on access to clinic/hospital care, continued public health efforts to engage Apostolic leaders is needed, along with monitoring of progress in access and outcomes

Correlates of Male Condom Use Skills among High-Risk Women in South Africa

This exploratory study examines the performance of 295 South African women—who recently traded sex for goods or had unprotected sex—on a male condom use mastery index. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine whether age, marital status, highest education obtained, male condom use at first penetrative sex, receiving prior demonstration of male condom use, recent sexually transmitted infection (STI) symptoms, and recently trading sex were significantly associated with index scores. Adjusted odds ratios indicated that age and STI symptoms were negatively associated with condom skills; women who were older and had a higher number of recent STI symptoms were more likely to have lower scores. Furthermore, participants executed, on average, approximately one-third of condom use steps correctly. These findings suggest a need for increased behavioral skills training for women engaging in sexual risk behaviors because many lack the skills required to use a male condom properly

Evaluation of Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Serological Tests for Use With Dried Blood Spots in Kenya

We evaluated two assays to detect antibodies to HSV- 2 in dried blood spots (DBS) prepared from blood specimens submitted to a reference laboratory in Kenya. DBS did not perform well with the Kalon HSV-2 assay. Focus HerpeSelect 2 was 98.8% sensitive and 98.9% specific with dried blood spots

Substance abuse, treatment needs and access among female sex workers and non-sex workers recruited in Pretoria, South Africa

Abstract Background This study examined cross-sectional data collected from substance-using female sex workers (FSW) and non-sex workers (non-SW) in Pretoria, South Africa, who entered a randomized controlled trial. Methods Women who reported alcohol use and recently engaging in sex work or unprotected sex were recruited for a randomized study. The study sample (N = 506) comprised 335 FSW and 171 female non-SW from Pretoria and surrounding areas. Self-reported data about alcohol and other drug use as well as treatment needs and access were collected from participants before they entered a brief intervention. Results As compared with female non-SW, FSW were found to have a greater likelihood of having a past year diagnosis of alcohol or other drug abuse or dependence, having a family member with a history of alcohol or other drug abuse, having been physically abused, having used alcohol before age 18, and having a history of marijuana use. In addition, the FSW were more likely to perceive that they had alcohol or other drug problems, and that they had a need for treatment and a desire to go for treatment. Less than 20% of participants in either group had any awareness of alcohol and drug treatment programs, with only 3% of the FSW and 2% of the non-SW reporting that they tried but were unable to enter treatment in the past year. Conclusion FSW need and want substance abuse treatment services but they often have difficulty accessing services. The study findings suggest that barriers within the South African treatment system need to be addressed to facilitate access for substance-using FSW. Ongoing research is needed to inform policy change that fosters widespread educational efforts and sustainable, accessible, woman-sensitive services to ultimately break the cycle for current and future generations of at-risk South African women

An adapted instrument to assess informed consent comprehension among youth and parents in rural western Kenya: a validation study.

OBJECTIVE: To adapt and validate a questionnaire originally developed in a research setting for assessment of comprehension of consent information in a different cultural and linguistic research setting. DESIGN: The adaptation process involved development and customisation of a questionnaire for each of the three study groups, modelled closely on the previously validated questionnaire. The three adapted draft questionnaires were further reviewed by two bioethicists and the developer of the original questionnaire for face and content validity. The revised questionnaire was subsequently programmed into an audio computerised format, with translations and back translations in three widely spoken languages by the study participants: Luo, Swahili and English. SETTING: The questionnaire was validated among adolescents, their parents and young adults living in Siaya County, a rural region of western Kenya. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-five-item adapted questionnaires consisting of close-ended, multiple-choice and open-ended questions were administered to 235 participants consisting of 107 adolescents, 92 parents and 36 young adults. Test-retest was conducted 2-4 weeks after first questionnaire administration among 74 adolescents, young adults and parents. OUTCOME MEASURE: Primary outcome measures included ceiling/floor analysis to identify questions with extremes in responses and item-level correlation to determine the test-retest relationships. Given the data format, tetrachoric correlations were conducted for dichotomous items and polychoric correlations for ordinal items. The qualitative validation assessment included face and content validity evaluation of the adapted instrument by technical experts. RESULTS: Ceiling/floor analysis showed eight question items for which >80% of one or more groups responded correctly, while for nine questions, including all seven open-ended questions,<20% responded correctly. Majority of the question items had moderate to strong test-retest correlation estimates indicating temporal stability. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that cross-cultural adaptation and validation of an informed consent comprehension questionnaire is feasible. However, further research is needed to develop a tool which can estimate a quantifiable threshold of comprehension thereby serving as an objective indicator of the need for interventions to improve comprehension

Use of HIV and HSV-2 Biomarkers in Sub-Saharan Adolescent Prevention Research: A Comparison of Two Approaches

Self-report of sexual behavior among adolescents is notoriously inconsistent, yet such measures are commonly used as outcomes for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention intervention trials. There has been a growing interest in the use of HIV and other sexually transmitted disease biomarkers as more valid measures of intervention impact in high HIV prevalence areas, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examine the challenges, benefits, and feasibility of including HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) biomarker data, with details about different data collection and disclosure methods from two adolescent prevention trials in Kenya and Zimbabwe. In Kenya, whole blood samples were collected using venipuncture; adult guardians were present during biomarker procedures and test results were disclosed to participants and their guardians. In contrast, in Zimbabwe, samples were collected using finger pricks for dried blood spots (DBS); guardians were not present during biomarker procedures, and results were not disclosed to participants and/or their guardians. In both countries, prevalence in the study samples was low. Although the standard of care for testing for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections includes disclosure in the presence of a guardian for adolescents under age 18, we conclude that more research about the risks and benefits of disclosure to adolescents in the context of a clinical trial is needed. Notably, current serological diagnosis for HSV-2 has a low positive predictive value when prevalence is low, resulting in an unacceptable proportion of false positives and serious concerns about disclosing test results to adolescents within a trial. We also conclude that the DBS approach is more convenient and efficient than venipuncture for field research, although both approaches are feasible. Manufacturer validation studies using DBS for HSV-2, however, are needed for widespread use