A conceptual framework for uncertainty in software systems and its application to software architectures

The development and operation of a software system involve many aspects including processes, artefacts, infrastructure and environments. Most of these aspects are vulnerable to uncertainty. Thus, the identification, representation and management of uncertainty in software systems is important and will be of interest to many stakeholders in software systems. The hypothesis of this work is that such consideration would benefit from an underlying conceptual framework that allows stakeholders to characterise, analyse and mitigate uncertainties. This PhD proposes a framework to provide a generic foundation for the systematic and explicit consideration of uncertainty in software systems by consolidating and extending existing approaches to dealing with uncertainty, which are typically tailored to specific domains or artefacts. The thesis applies the framework to software architectures, which are fundamental in determining the structure, behaviour and qualities of software systems and are thus suited to serve as an exemplar artefact. The framework is evaluated using the software architectures of case studies from 3 different domains. The contributions of the research to the study of uncertainty in software systems include a literature review of approaches to managing uncertainty in software architecture, a review of existing work on uncertainty frameworks related to software systems, a conceptual framework for uncertainty in software systems, a conceptualisation of the workbench infrastructure as a basis for building an uncertainty consideration workbench of tools for representing uncertainty as part of software architecture descriptions, and an evaluation of the uncertainty framework using three software architecture case studies

A framework for considering uncertainty in software systems

Funding: This work is partly funded through a PhD studentship to the first author by the School of Computer Science, University of St Andrews.There are many aspects involved in the development and operation of a software system, including system artefacts, activities, and infrastructure. Most of these aspects are vulnerable to uncertainty, which can result in risks to system quality and performance. Thus it is important to identify, represent and manage uncertainty in software systems. We hypothesise that using an underlying conceptual framework for characterising uncertainty can facilitate these activities. This paper demonstrates the use of an extensible framework, which defines a foundation for the systematic and explicit consideration of uncertainty in software systems. A software architecture case study is used to illustrate and evaluate the framework. A discussion of potential uses for the framework and future research is also provided.Postprin

Can a Village Headman Use an Electronic Village Register and a Simplified Community-Based Verbal Autopsy Tool to Record Numbers and Causes of Death in Rural Malawi?

Introduction: Most people in Africa die without appearing in official vital statistics records. To improve this situation, Malawi has introduced solar-powered electronic village registers (EVR), managed by village headmen, to record birth and death information for production of vital statistics. The EVR is deployed in 83 villages in Traditional Authority Mtema, Lilongwe, which is an area without electricity. In 17 villages, village headmen were also trained to use a simple verbal autopsy (VA) tool adapted from one developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). Study objectives were to (i) document numbers and causes of death occurring in 17 villages between April 2016 and September 2017, and (ii) assess percentage measures of agreement on causes of death as recorded by village headmen using a simple VA tool and by a team of health surveillance assistant (HSA)/medical doctor using the WHO VA tool.Methods: The study was in two-parts: (i) a cross-sectional study using secondary data from the EVR; (ii) primary data collection study comparing causes of death obtained by village headmen using a simple VA tool and by HSA/medical doctor using the WHO VA tool.Results: Over 18 months, 120 deaths were recorded by EVR in 14,264 residents - crude annual death rate 5.6/1,000 population. Median age at death was 43 years with 69 (58%) deaths being in males. Death occurred at home (75%) and at health facility (25%). Malaria, diarrhoeal disease, pulmonary tuberculosis, acute respiratory infection, and stroke accounted for 56% of deaths recorded by village headmen using the simple VA tool. Causes of death between village headmen and the HSA/medical doctor team were compared for 107 deaths. There was full agreement in causes of death in 33 (31%) deaths, mostly for malaria, severe anemia, intentional self-harm, cancer, and epilepsy. Unknown-sudden death and sepsis recorded by the HSA/medical doctor team were responsible for most disagreements.Conclusion: It is feasible for village headmen in rural Malawi to use an EVR and simple VA tool to document numbers and causes of deaths. More work is needed to improve accuracy of causes of death by village headmen

A Conceptual Framework for Uncertainty in Software Systems and its Application to Software Architectures (thesis data)

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