A Risk Analysis of Risk Analysis

Probabilistic risk or decision analysis is the most rigourous approach to engineering solutions to fiddicult diecision making problems involvingt uncertainty. A large body of theory and applications has been developed for probabilistic risk analysis, and it is commonly taught at universities. So why isin\u27t probablilistic risk analysis used more often in practice? Perhaps it is rational, in some circumstances, not fo use probabilistic rrisk analysis or not to rely entirely on its use

Probabilistic Design and Optimization - University of California, Davis

Graduate course in probabilistic design and optimization offered at University of California, Davis in Winter 2013

The Next Step in Central Valley Flood Management: Connecting Costs and Benefits

Historically, large expanses of California\u27s low-lying Central Valley flooded nearly every winter. Over the past 150 years, individuals, communities, and state and national agencies have increasingly altered the landscape with levees, reservoirs, and bypasses to support agriculture and urban centers. The Central Valley\u27s flood protection infrastructure and the institutions that manage flood risks have coevolved as risks and local needs have changed. The current state of flood management is in transition, as the recognition of a precarious disconnect between land-use decisions, flood liability, and flood infrastructure expenses unfolds. Substantial risks to public safety, the state\u27s purse, and water supply are likely to be exacerbated by population growth and climate change. The paper identifies the strengths and weaknesses of the current flood management system, and explores several market and policy measures that might address the weaknesses of the system, especially the disconnection between flood management costs and benefits in California\u27s Central Valley

An Economic-Engineering Optimization for the Binational Mexico-U.S. Lower Colorado River Delta: the Mexicali Valley Case Study

Agricultural water use in the binational Lower Colorado River Basin is about ninety percent of all the beneficial use. Fast growing border cities of Baja California and conservation uses will increase their water allocations in the near future. The CALVIN economic-engineering model was used to evaluate the benefits and costs of a variety of water management strategies in the Lower Colorado River Delta in Mexico. Results show that at 2025 water demand conditions, agriculture seems to be the most suitable donor of water to other sectors. Wastewater reuse for irrigation and/or conservation purposes may reduce dependence on agricultural water imports to fulfill future demands