Prospects of gravitational-wave follow-up through a wide-field ultraviolet satellite: A Dorado case study

The detection of gravitational waves from the binary neuron star merger GW170817 and electromagnetic counterparts GRB170817A and AT2017gfo kick-started the field of gravitational-wave multimessenger astronomy. The optically red to near-infrared emission ("red" component) of AT2017gfo was readily explained as produced by the decay of newly created nuclei produced by rapid neutron capture (a kilonova). However, the ultraviolet to optically blue emission ("blue" component) that was dominant at early times (up to 1.5 days) received no consensus regarding its driving physics. Among many explanations, two leading contenders are kilonova radiation from a lanthanide-poor ejecta component and shock interaction (cocoon emission). In this work, we simulate AT2017gfo-like light curves and perform a Bayesian analysis to study whether an ultraviolet satellite capable of rapid gravitational-wave follow-up, could distinguish between physical processes driving the early "blue" component. We find that ultraviolet data starting at 1.2 hr distinguishes the two early radiation models up to 160 Mpc, implying that an ultraviolet mission like Dorado would significantly contribute to insights into the driving emission physics of the postmerger system. While the same ultraviolet data and optical data starting at 12 hr have limited ability to constrain model parameters separately, the combination of the two unlocks tight constraints for all but one parameter of the kilonova model up to 160 Mpc. We further find that a Dorado-like ultraviolet satellite can distinguish the early radiation models up to at least 130 (60) Mpc if data collection starts within 3.2 (5.2) hr for AT2017gfo-like light curves

The Challenges Ahead for Multimessenger Analyses of Gravitational Waves and Kilonova: A Case Study on GW190425

In recent years, there have been significant advances in multi-messenger astronomy due to the discovery of the first, and so far only confirmed, gravitational wave event with a simultaneous electromagnetic (EM) counterpart, as well as improvements in numerical simulations, gravitational wave (GW) detectors, and transient astronomy. This has led to the exciting possibility of performing joint analyses of the GW and EM data, providing additional constraints on fundamental properties of the binary progenitor and merger remnant. Here, we present a new Bayesian framework that allows inference of these properties, while taking into account the systematic modeling uncertainties that arise when mapping from GW binary progenitor properties to photometric light curves. We extend the relative binning method presented in Zackay et al. (2018) to include extrinsic GW parameters for fast analysis of the GW signal. The focus of our EM framework is on light curves arising from r-process nucleosynthesis in the ejected material during and after merger, the so called kilonova, and particularly on black hole - neutron star systems. As a case study, we examine the recent detection of GW190425, where the primary object is consistent with being either a black hole (BH) or a neutron star (NS). We show quantitatively how improved mapping between binary progenitor and outflow properties, and/or an increase in EM data quantity and quality are required in order to break degeneracies in the fundamental source parameters