Distribution of rodent species.

<p><i>Necromys lasiurus</i> (circles) and <i>Oligoryzomys nigripes</i> (squares). The access area "M" is approximated by buffers of 400 km. Distribution of hantavirus-infected rodents (<i>N. lasiurus</i>, red triangles and <i>O. nigripes</i>, yellow stars) is also shown.</p

Visualization of niches of hantavirus in rodents and humans.

<p>White points indicate environments in the study area (background). Ellipsoids are the representation of niches for hantavirus in <i>N. lasiurus</i> (red), <i>O. nigripes</i> (blue), and human cases (yellow). Environmental space based on components 1 to 3 from a principal component analysis (PCA) of climatic and NDVI variables. Note that, while the ellipsoids for the different species do show some difference, so also do the environments represented within each species’ <b>M</b>; here, the results of the background similarity test become key. </p

Ecological niche models projected as potential distributions for rodent reservoirs of hantavirus in Brazil (gray shading).

<p><i>Necromys lasiurus</i> (left) and <i>Oligoryzomys nigripes</i> (right). Areas identified as suitable based on all occurrence records are shown in pale gray, whereas areas identified as suitable based only on infected rodents database are shown for <i>N. lasiurus</i> (red) and <i>O. nigripes</i> (yellow). Bold lines indicate the range of the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest. Cases of human infections with hantavirus in Cerrado (circles) and Atlantic Forest (squares) were superimposed on the models.</p

Workflow of the modeling process used in this study.

<p>Occurrences were collected, cleaned, and employed to estimate three model calibration regions (i.e., <b>M</b>_{<b><i>i</i></b>}, <b>M</b>_{<b><i>g</i></b>}, and <b>M</b>_{<b><i>d</i></b>}). Present-day climatic variables were restricted to these model calibration regions and compared to future climatic conditions in Minnesota. Models were parametrized using present-day climates in the three model calibration regions and the best models were projected to future climates in Minnesota using five climate models and four RCP scenarios.</p

Environmental similarity comparison between the calibration M_<i>g</i> and the projection region of Minnesota.

<p>Legend as in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0180930#pone.0180930.g003" target="_blank">Fig 3</a>.</p

Ecological niche models of starry stonewort calibrated in M_<i>i</i> and projected to future climate scenarios in Minnesota.

<p>Ecological niche model predictions based on model calibration region <b>M</b>_{<b><i>i</i></b>} projected to Minnesota. Areas with high (red) or low (blue) environmental suitability (Suitability, left) and high (pink) or low (light blue) model uncertainty (Standard deviation, right) were identified for five future climate models (i.e., CCSM, GISS, IPSL, MIROC, MRI) and four RCP scenarios of CO₂ emissions (i.e., 2.6, 4.5, 6, and 8.5).</p

Ecological niche models of starry stonewort calibrated in M_<i>d</i> and projected to future climate scenarios in Minnesota.

<p>Ecological niche model predictions based on model calibration region <b>M</b>_{<b><i>d</i></b>} projected to Minnesota. Legend as in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0180930#pone.0180930.g007" target="_blank">Fig 7</a>.</p

Ecological niche models of starry stonewort calibrated in M_<i>g</i> and projected to future climate scenarios in Minnesota.

<p>Ecological niche model predictions based on model calibration region <b>M</b>_{<b><i>g</i></b>} projected to Minnesota. Legend as in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0180930#pone.0180930.g007" target="_blank">Fig 7</a>.</p

Ecological niche model transference to Minnesota under present-day climate.

<p>Ecological niche model predictions based on model calibration region in the invaded range with high dispersal (<b>M</b>_{<b><i>i</i></b>}; top), entire species’ range with high dispersal (<b>M</b>_{<b><i>g</i></b>}; mid), and entire species’ range with reduced dispersal (<b>M</b>_{<b><i>d</i></b>}; bottom) projected to Minnesota to identify areas with high (red) or low (blue) environmental suitability (left) and high (pink) or low (light blue) model uncertainty (right).</p

Model calibration region, M, explored in this study.

<p>Models were calibrated in three regions (red lines in A, B, and C) based on the distribution of starry stonewort populations (green points). <b>A.</b> Model calibration region based on an invasive population approach focused on starry stonewort populations in the invaded area of the United States and a high dispersal potential (i.e., 2,200 km), <b>M</b>_{<b><i>i</i></b>}. <b>B.</b> Model calibration region considering the entire or global species’ range in the United States, Europe, and Japan and a high dispersal potential (i.e., 2,200 km), <b>M</b>_{<b><i>g</i></b>}. <b>C.</b> Model calibration region considering the entire or global species’ range in the United States (left map), Europe (central map), and Japan (right map) and a reduced dispersal potential (i.e., 700 km), <b>M</b>_{<b><i>d</i></b>}.</p