Байесовский подход к построению таблиц «затраты-выпуск»

Methods of updating, balancing, disaggregation of Input-Output Tables (IOT) are widely used in applied economic and statistical research (for example, for the calibration of computable general equilibrium models), as well as by statistical services for compilation of IOTs. As compared to the well-known popular methods (RAS, cross-entropy minimization, and their analogs), which provide point estimates of unknown tables, the proposed approach targets estimation of joint probability distribution of input-output (IO) coefficients. With this goal we develop a probabilistic model ofjoint distribution of the IO coefficients as a likelihood function of observed information (for example, output, value added, intermediate demand). This information from newly arrived data is being mixed with prior information of IO parameters (for example, known IOTs from former years) by Bayes rule. The resulting posterior joint distribution can be estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods. The sample of IOTs from the targeted distribution is a set of IO matrices consistent with the observed data, constrains, and also near to the prior information. In contrary to the point estimates, the stochastic IOTs naturally incorporate uncertain information of each estimated IO parameter, taking into account all the multivariate correlation between the cells. The proposed methodology can be applied to updating, interpolation, disaggregation, and balancing of IOTs, and more widely - national accounts. We test the methodology with experimental updating of IO table for the Russian economy for 2003 year, based on tables from 1998 to 2002 years. The results suggest adequacy and computational accessibility of the proposed methodology.С задачами обновления, балансировки, дезагрегации таблиц «затраты-выпуск» сталкиваются как исследователи в сфере экономики и статистики (например, для калибровки вычислимых моделей общего равновесия), так и статистические службы (при построении таблиц). В отличие от известных популярных методов (RAS, минимизации перекрестной энтропии и их аналогов) в предлагаемом подходе вместо точечных оценок коэффициентов прямых затрат оценивается их совместное вероятностное распределение. Для этого строится вероятностная модель совместного распределения ячеек, являющаяся функцией правдоподобия новой наблюдаемой информации (например, выпуск, добавленная стоимость, промежуточный спрос), которая с помощью формулы Байеса объединяется с априорной информацией о ячейках (например, известных таблиц предыдущих лет). Получаемая в итоге апостериорная совместная плотность вероятности оценивается методами сэмплирования Монте-Карло по схеме цепи Маркова. Характеристики апостериорного распределения определяются набором (выборкой) искомых таблиц из этого распределения. При этом каждая из полученных таблиц не противоречит имеющимся данным, ограничениям и не слишком далека от априорно заданной таблицы или любой другой информации о ячейках. В отличие от точечных оценок стохастические таблицы напрямую инкорпорируют информацию о неопределенности каждого оцененного коэффициента прямых затрат таблиц «затраты-выпуск», учитывая существующие между ними взаимосвязи. Предлагаемая методика может использоваться для экстраполяции, интерполяции, дезагрегации и балансировки таблиц «затраты-выпуск» и более широко - матриц социальных счетов. С целью апробации метода проводится экспериментальная оценка таблиц «затраты-выпуск» российской экономики за 2003 г. на основе таблиц 1998-2002 гг. Экспериментальное применение метода Байеса на реальных данных продемонстрировало адекватность и вычислительную доступность предлагаемой методики

Synthetic Analogue of Leu-Enkephalin Prevents Endothelial Dysfunction in vitro

The purpose of the study was to determine the efficacy of a synthetic leu-enkephalin stabilized analogue to prevent damage of endothelial cells monolayer in vitro caused by serum samples from septic shock patients.Materials and methods. The experiments were performed using the EaHy.926 endothelial cells monolayer. We studied the in vitro effect of synthetic leu-enkephalin analogue on the cell damage caused by serum samples from five septic shock patients. The status of endothelial intercellular junctions was estimated by immunofluorescence microscopy and western blot with antibodies against adherens junction protein, VE-cadherin, and against the tight junctions protein, claudin. Cell viability was determined by staining with propidium iodide.Results. Preconditioning with a synthetic leu-enkephalin analogue (10, 50 and 100 μg/ml) of endothelial cells in vitro prevented the destruction of both tight and adherens junction and partially prevented endothelial cell death.Conclusion. Preconditioning with a synthetic leu-enkephalin analogue partially prevents endothelial cell damage caused by exposure to septic patients’ sera in vitro. These data ensure the need for clinical trials on the effectiveness of a synthetic leu-enkephalin analogue for prevention of sepsis-associated endothelial dysfunction in clinics

NEUROMUSCULAR BLOCKADE REVERSAL AND TRACHEAL INTUBATION DURING RECONSTRUCTIVE OPERATIONS ON THE CAROTID ARTERIES

The paper presents the results of using sugammadex and an antireflux endotracheal tube during surgical treatment for stenotic lesions of the extracranial internal carotid artery. It shows the results of examining a group of patients with carotid atherosclerotic lesion at high surgical/anesthetic risk in whom the anesthetic regimen used neuromuscular blockade reversal and an antireflux endotracheal tube. The paper emphasizes the importance of the proposed procedure that may positively affect the entire early postoperative period, restores muscle tone rapidly and adequately, statistically significantly shows a 1.4-fold reduction in the time of awakening, tracheal extubation and activation, and leads to hemodynamic stabilization

Effect of Metal Chlorides on the Pyrolysis of Wheat Straw

In this paper, the results of the study on the influence of the addition of 10 wt.% of FeCl3, CoCl2, NiCl2, ZnCl2, SnCl2, and CuCl2 on the wheat straw pyrolysis process are presented. The studied chlorides were found to affect the pyrolysis process; however, the highest activity was observed while using CuCl2. The presence of the copper chloride led to the decrease in the temperature of the initial destruction of hemicellulose fraction of wheat straw by 64°С. Besides, the use of CuCl2 allowed increasing the yield of liquid and solid pyrolysis products as well as decreasing the molecular weight distribution of the volatiles. Moreover, the increase in the hydrogen and decrease in carbon dioxide concentration were also observed in the presence of copper chloride. The analysis of the solid residue obtained in the wheat straw pyrolysis in the presence of CuCl2 showed the increase in the specific surface area of the carbon residue from 24 up to 63.5 m2/g in comparison with that obtained for the noncatalytic process

UNIVERSAL CHORD-SAVING MITRAL VALVE REPLACEMENT AS A FACTOR OF LONG-TERM FUNCTIONAL IMPROVEMENT

Aim. To assess short — and 5-year long-term results of the universal chord-saving mitral valve replacement.Material and methods. Totally 103 patients included, who during 2009-2014 у at the department of myocardium dysfunction and heart failure of FSBSI "Russian Scientific Center for Surgery n.a. Petrovsky B. P." underwent a surgical cord-saving mitral valve replacement. The age of the patients varied from 21 to 75 у and the mean was 55,2±0,9 у Among the operated 51 (49,5%) were male and 52 (50,5%) female. Results. Of 103 patients 101 were discharged. Long-term results were collected from 98 patients that is 97% of all discharged. Follow-up period lasted for 3 month — 5 years. Functional results are more than satisfying: I functional class have 66 patients (67,3%) of the discharged, II - 26 (26,5%), III - 3 (3,06%), died 3 patients (3,06%). In 89 patients (90,8%) there is an increase of the functional class by 2 or even 3 steps. During long-term follow-up in 25,5% cases (25 patients) had atrial fibrillation paroxysms. In 19 patients sinus rhythm was reversed with drugs and only in 6 (6,1%) atrial fibrillation became permanent. Sinus rhythm returned in 15 patients having atrial fibrillation before the operation. Bleedings of different localization developed in 10 (10,2%) cases and were related to miscompliance for anticoagulant drugs. After INR correction bleeding did not repeat. Complications, more or less related to indirect anticoagulants (prosthesis thrombosis, left atrium thrombosis, myocardial infarction, transient ischemic attack of the brain) were registered in 11 patients that is 11,2% of all cases in long-term period. Conclusion. The universal chord-saving valve replacement fulfills the main criteria for the method of mitral valve replacement: simplicity of performing, save of left ventricle contraction physiology, safety for the patient and stability of good results in long-term period. This method can be recommended for implementation in mitral regurgitation and stenosis as well. Saving of normal intracardiac anatomy of the left ventricle makes it to improve its contractility and to increase functional class of the patient in long-term period after operation